[llabb]

I had Nadal last year pre-French to win at +400, and my expectations were pleasantly met. It's not just about him being the favorite right now, it's that he is absolutely dominant. Think DiMaggio, Babe Ruth, and Bonds. Their records are who Nadal's clay record is being compared to.

Federer is probably the only one with a chance, as he has been getting closer and closer, down to a thrilling 5-setter in their last one. I still think Nadal beats him, but it is reasonable to see Fed finally getting over the hump. The risk that Fed gets ousted pre-finals is much more than Nadal, though.

I really like Nadal + Federer at -550, and think there is very little risk. Probably greater injury risk than someone beating both of them outright. I like Nadal at +100 even better, although there is risk. I think the line on him should be at least -150, as he will almost definitely make the finals, and should be favored by at least that much against Federer.

If you want an underdog, I think Nalbandian is a good play at +2000 or better, and have a little bit on him, mainly for the chance that he beats Federer.

I like a lot of the first round matchups on the favorites, even at insane odds on some of them. I am playing them to only risk 1 unit, not to win 1 unit. So there is little risk, and most likely will win a bunch of small amounts, adding up to a unit or two.

Ferrer -400
Nadal -4000
Federer -4000
Mauresmo -1500
Sharapova -1300

Risking half a unit:
Monfils -120
Grosjean -300
Nieminin -500
Davydenko -800
Rochus -550
Stepanek -500
Ljubicic -500
Blake -700
Haas -275