[llabb]

The French Open starts on Sunday. If you know tennis at all, you know that Nadal dominates on clay, and Federer dominates everywhere else. The draw was this morning, and they both have relatively easy draws until at least the quarterfinals.

It would seem that the French Open winner will definitely be either Nadal or Federer, and most likely, that will be the final matchup. It is extremely difficult to see Nadal not making the Finals. Federer is not as much of a lock, but should make it to the semi's. His only real challenge there is probably if he faces Nalbandian. And neither Nalbandian nor anyone else have much chance to beat both Federer and Nadal.

Pinny was offering "Will either Nadal or Federer win the French Open" for -550. Yes, it is a steep, steep price, but it seems to be almost a lock for it to be one of these two. This is close to Taylor over Kat (and has similar odds) for anyone who followed AI and knows how strong that was.

That being said, I am taking a smaller risk for larger return, and only wagering on Nadal at +100 for now. I just see him making the finals, and if he faces Federer, I may hedge some then, at a better price. If you took Nadal plus a Federer hedge right now, though (by betting on both, less on Federer), it would be -350.

Nadal is simply the best claycourt player of this generation, and turning into a real rival for Federer, as he not only beat him twice this year on clay, but once on hardcourts as well. Nadal, at only 19, holds not just the current world record on clay, but the all-time historical record of most consecutive matches ever won on clay, at 53 straight. Tennis is not as popular as the major team sports, but this feat is being compared to Joe DiMaggio's record 56-game hitting streak, that has stood in history for 65 years.