[TaintedRogue]

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Hi Everyone:

I have a conjecture that I believe is true and I have reasons for believing that this is true. But I'm hoping that others can explain the reasons a little better than I can, or perhaps explain why my conjecture is wrong. Here it is:

Suppose you are a great tournament player. Perhaps one of the best. You enter a $10,000 buy-in tournament and when the first hand is dealt, since you're such a great player your expectation is $40,000 even though you only have $10,000 in tournament chips. Now a very unusual first hand takes place and you double up. That is you now have $20,000 in tournament chips. My conjecture is that your expectation does not double even though your chip count has. So instead of having an expectation of $80,000 it may only be $78,000, or $75,000, or some other number less than $80,000, but it will definitely be less than $80,000.

So if my conjecture is correct, I would like to hear good reasons why this is the case. If it's not correct, I want to hear those reasons as well.

This should make for a good discussion and thanks in advance for the help.

Best wishes,
Mason

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Now I see that this was a trick question! You're asserting that the player expects to win $40,000.00 in the event.
You are saying he has $10,000.00 in tournament chips because that is what he paid for the T10,000.
It's obvious that everytime he doubles his chip count, his expected winnings is not going to double......even if he takes 1st place with all of the chips, he isn't going to get all of the money...........

All of those posts........in an attempt to make a trick question a logical one.