Re: Conjecture and Question
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I conclude that the one factor model (chips only) is inadequate to estimate EV, since we know a great players EV is about his/her long run ROI: lets say $40K.
If the EV of T10,000 starting chips must be below $1300 for any player, then other aspects such as skill, etc must comprise the remaining ~$40K. Some skills may be based on the quanitity of chips, but the main conclusion is still that doubling the stack size early does not affect EV that much. A first order affect on the additional EV of chips alone would be an increase of less than $1300 for T20,000.
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I believe that if Raymer, or any other intelligent pro, doubles his chips on the 1st hand, at a table of average players, that his EV increases by more, because his command of the table increases by more. I would think it would be less, only if he has stiff competition at his table.
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