[dakra]

I would raise, too.
If we assume we are beat 1 out of 10 times and say sb will always fold for a raise and overcall 50% of the time the EV
for raising is : 90%*10 + 10%*-3 = 8.7
and overcalling: 90%*9.5 + 10%*-1 = 8.45

therefore raise.