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KJ? 2 spades? AT?

Am I giving Bax too much credit?

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I don't think you're giving him enough. I'd be surprised to see him make the call preflop with KJ here, and likely AT as well.

I think AK is the most likely hand here, but how often would he move all-in preflop if he had it?

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Exactly. Why not CR all-in with AK? If you're ahead, you're not very vulnerable to a free card coming off and you will undoubtedly get more value from a CR. And when you're behind, you get stacked regardless of how you play it.

Makes no sense to be AK, IMO.