Grossman Must Mature in a Hurry
Why To Watch
The Bears are 9-2 in their last 11 games and have allowed only five touchdowns at home the entire season. Carolina is 7-2 on the road after dismantling the Giants in New York last week. John Fox leads a playoff-experienced Panthers team that will handle the crowd noise and elements without much issue, and Carolina clearly has the big-game experience advantage at quarterback, with its coaching staff and the kicking game. Carolina is also a very disciplined team, having committed the fewest penalties in the NFL this season.
Both of these teams are feature exceptional defenses that generate a lot of turnovers and wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks. Protecting the football is a must by both quarterbacks. Carolina is one of the best teams in the league when it has the lead, so the first quarter will be of the utmost importance. If the Panthers can make Chicago one-dimensional, as they did last week to the Giants, the Panthers' defense will make life very difficult for Bears QB Rex Grossman. Both teams are well-coached and have two of the best defenses in the league, but Carolina has much more playoff experience and a far more balanced offense.
When the Panthers have the ball
Rushing: The Panthers were dominant on the ground last week against the Giants (223 rushing yards), despite their top two ball carriers, DeShaun Foster (turf toe) and Nick Goings (ankle), fighting injuries. Foster posted 151 yards as Carolina's offensive line opened gaping holes, but he also fought hard for extra yardage, dragging tacklers down the field and refusing to stop his feet. Foster has emerged as a serious weapon who can run inside with power and burst, outside with speed and elusiveness and catch the ball with sure hands and a strong feel for route running and getting open.
This is a balanced Carolina offense, but it will lean heavily on Foster once again this week, even against the Bears' eight-man fronts. In order to get the ball in Steve Smith's hands more often and to keep Chicago's backside defenders honest, the Bears will get him a few carries on end arounds and reverses. Smith is pure electricity and capable of big plays every time he touches the football. The Bears tackle well and allow only 3.7 yards per rush with a very gap sound and aggressive front seven. They will get a huge boost with the return of their leader, SS Mike Brown. Brown is tough as nails, quick to fill on running plays and is a big-time hitter and playmaker.
Passing: Panthers offensive coordinator Dan Henning does an excellent job of mixing his calls and keeping a defense off balance, but it doesn't take an offensive guru to figure out that getting the ball to Smith as much as possible is a must. Smith has great hands, elite speed and is fantastic with the ball in his hands. Carolina will throw him the ball quickly with bubble screens, quick hitches and slants to force Chicago to bring a corner close to the line of scrimmage and then exploit the Bears' secondary deep. When these teams met earlier in the season, Smith had a whopping 14 catches for 169 yards.
QB Jake Delhomme is 4-1 as a starter in the playoffs and will have to take what Chicago gives him without forcing the football on the road. In the first meeting, Delhomme threw two interceptions to Nathan Vasher. Multiple turnovers in this contest by Delhomme will be catastrophic, so he needs to be a game manager much more than a guy who has to carry this offense. The Bears had 41 sacks during the regular season and will force the Panthers to use extra blockers against their defensive ends. LT Travelle Wharton will need a tight end to stay in and block against RDE Alex Brown.
Chicago will play a lot of Cover 2, as usual, but it might be forced to bring S Brown into the box to stop the Panthers' running attack, making it much more difficult to double Smith. Chicago's defense is the best in the NFL in the red zone, where it switches to man coverage in a shortened field and generate excellent pressure on opposing quarterbacks. DE Julius Peppers should see the field near the goal line for the Panthers and could give the Bears some problems matching up against his size, strength and athletic ability in man coverage. The weather and crowd noise in Chicago could be problematic for Carolina's passing attack, but expect Delhomme and this veteran group to handle both quite well.
When the Bears have the ball
Rushing: Carolina took Tiki Barber out of the game last week and made Eli Manning try to win the game with his arm. Obviously, this was a successful formula in the Panthers' shutout, and Chicago doesn't have receiving weapons comparable to the Giants. Expect a heavy dosage of eight- and nine-man fronts this week. Carolina has a fast flowing defense that fills gaps very quickly and is an excellent tackling squad. That is especially true with a safety added to the box for run support. LB/S Thomas Davis should continue to see more playing time, and the Panthers use his versatility extremely well as a cover guy, blitzer and hard-hitting run defender.
Chicago wants to lean on its rushing attack and play this one close to the vest, but against Carolina's loaded front, moving the ball on the ground will be quite difficult. The Bears will still pound the ball with Thomas Jones regardless of what Carolina does, but don't expect a big day for Jones.
Passing: Chicago's offensive line is steady, physical and an above-average group as a whole, but it often plays a man-blocking pass protection -- much like the Giants -- and will struggle with Carolina's pass rush. The Panthers had great success running loops and defensive tackle/tackle and tackle/end stunts that caused New York's interior linemen to chase their assigned man and open gaping holes in the pass protection. As a result, Carolina had great success rushing just its four linemen and playing man coverage behind it with extra zone support. OC Olin Kreutz makes the line calls and will have to be on top of this situation and adjust Chicago's protection accordingly.
The Panthers finished the season second in the NFL in takeaways and created four turnovers last week in New York. If Grossman turns the ball over on multiple occasions, the Bears' chances of winning are slim. Carolina's secondary matches up well very well against the Bears' receiving options. CB Ken Lucas is among the top players at his position and has great size to neutralize bigger wide receivers. Plaxico Burress didn't have a single catch last week, and Lucas will surely match up against the Bears' top weapon, Muhsin Muhammad. Lucas will eliminate Muhammad and Chris Gamble will have his way with Justin Gage or Bernard Berrian. This secondary's advantage will allow the Panthers the option to bring an extra blitzer on throwing downs, making Grossman's pass protection that much more difficult.