[jmc999]

Well, let's revisit from an odds perspective:
AA - 1
KK - 1
QQ - 3

KQ - 3
AQ - 3
AK - 1

QQ is probably the most likely holding.
Given the above assumptions, we have the best hand/tie
p=6/12 on the turn, q=5/12 we're losing, tie = 1/12.

If we remove KQ from the equation, we're winning p=3/9, losing q=5/9, tie = 1/9.

Without AQ, we're winning p=0/6, losing 5/6, tie 1/6.

Since we plan on seeing this down to the end, let's just worry about maximizing our return from here on out:

Best case:

case 1 -- call down to the end
p*(1+1) - q*(1+1) = +.1667 BB

case 2 -- raise the turn, get reraised by AA/KK/QQ. Otherwise, opponent calls the turn, check/calls the river.
p*(2+1) - q*(3+1) = -.1667 BB

case 2b -- raise the turn, get reraised by AA/KK/QQ. Otherwise opponent calls the turn, and both of you check the river.
p*(2+0) - q*(3+1) = -.667 BB

case 3 -- raise the turn and only get reraised by AA.
Otherwise, opponent check/calls the river
p*(2+1) - q*.2*(3+1) - q*.8 * (2+1) = +.1667 BB

case 4 -- raise the turn and opponent reraises with AA/KK/QQ/AQ/AK/KQ. He bets and you call the river.
p*(3+1) - q*(3+1) = .333 BB

Someone check my math please [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If your opponent would reraise with AQ and KQ, then raising the turn is good. However, this would mean your opponent capped the preflop in bad position with AQ or KQ and is crazy enough to reraise after you raise on top of his check-raise.

Calling it down seems best to me -- especially given that we're using p/q from our best case assumption.