[Kneel B4 Zod]

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You're not giving nearly enough credit to the huge edge Denver's pass defense has over NE's pass defense.

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the Denver secondary is certainly better than NE's. the secondary is the weak spot on NE, but they are playing better than they have all season. as John Clayton mentions, they are basically playing w/ 4 cornerbacks back there, which has helped w/ pass coverage (and hurt run defense/tackling). that's why it's so critical for the Patriots to be able to stop the run w/ 7 guys, and leave 4-5 back for pass coverage.

also, when you rate the potential effectiveness of these units, I think it's important to compare the units they will be facing (ie Brady and his units vs Plummer and his). and I'll take Brady/Branch/Givens/Watson/Graham over Plummer/Smith/Lelie/Putzier/Alexander any day of the week, and this edge is enough to offset the talent edge the Broncos have in their defensive backfield.

basically, I see this as a pretty even matchup, w/ the Bronco's favored b/c of HFA