Re: Pass up this edge?
Very easy call. There is some chance Villain is on a worse flush draw, which is huge for you. It's very unlikely he has more than one pair, giving you 12-15 outs depending on whether he has an A/K in his hand.
I guess this last point is pretty hotly disputed on here, but I really like doubling up early in low buy-in MTT's. Firstly, I have no problem busting, as I considering starting a new tournament with an average stack a better use of my time than trying to recover a stack because I made a tight fold. I know the 200 or so chips you've invested don't seem like much, but they compound over time. People tend to accumulate chips very quickly in the early stages of these tournaments, so I find that doubling up early gives me a lot of opportunities to invest twice as many chips in +EV situations, whereas losing even a small part of my stack early exponentially hurts my ability to recover. This might be a function of my early game, however, which involves putting my whole stack on the line quite often. I guess if you play a more conservative game where you are rarely using all the chips in your stack, early variance will have less effect on your overall success.
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