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Old 04-18-2006, 10:42 AM
DesertCat DesertCat is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Pwned by A-Rod
Posts: 4,236
Default Re: The details of my Big Bet against Krispy Kreme

I got my available liquidity calculation wrong, or I didn't realize that KKD changed how they report it, and I included JV's when I shouldn't have. They actually have $38M in total liquidity, and that's down from $52M.

It's clear that they've lost some lenders, that actual burn should be less than $14M. It's unclear whether they are getting close to the line where the lenders pull the plug, but they probably need waivers from their lenders due to the problems with their filings. It will be interesting to see what the lender demand for those waivers, do more pull out, do they pull the plug, or do they squeeze through?

One other interesting option for KKD to raise additional funds is that Zoloft-Cooper (sic) their restructuring expert, has a warrant to buy 1M shares that vested a week or so ago (1 month after new CEO). It was priced at $7.75, so if it was exercised that's almost $8M in additional capital. But I think there is no way in hell that happened. The $1M "spread" from a week ago isn't much cash unless you can immediately flip the shares. Plus there are insider trading issues if good news is coming, or if they flipped them before this bad news was released.

Right now KKD is down to $7.77 and my May/Aug puts are solidly back in the money.
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