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Old 07-22-2005, 03:01 PM
gergery gergery is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,254
Default Re: $600 hand -- K-high flush

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Do you think A-high flush is out there? Or someone likely filled up? I can't see higher flush b/c my turn raise was only called... I'd expect A-high flush to shove there.

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I’d think OO6 might have A-hi flush without an A2 low based on his turn call (which is designed to bring in LG). But I don’t think he’d then push the river. It seems like he a drawing hand based on how he played it. But both A2 and sets/twopair are drawing here, and I don’t think he’d make that play with bare A2


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Also, what about the fact that I'm getting almost 5:1 from the main pot? (So that if I can beat the other big stack, I virtually have to call?)

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You call $137 and there is the pot’s $377+OO’s 173+LG’s $173 +your $173 = 896. Half is $448, and minus your $137 is $311, so you’re getting 2.27 to 1 for the high side by my calcs and have no chance for low.

so you need to win high here 30.5% of the time in the main pot for this to be correct. I think your high is probably better than LG, but I’d be worried about OO6. I think your opponents must have one of the following here
a) nut flush
b) boat
c) A2 + nutflush
d) A2 + weak flush
e) A2 + trips
f) A2 + boat

You are basically saying that BOTH opponents will have d) or e) more than 30% of the time, and have a) b) c) f) less than 70% of the time. That seems unlikely to me.

For the side pot, I can’t put OO6 on any hand that you can scoop. He needs the nuts for high which means boat, or a low plus something which could mean weak flush or weak boat. Either way you are at best just getting your money back in the side pot and might be scooped

So I don’t think a river call is terrible, but I don’t think its that close either.

--Greg
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