[januarymute]

This is a pretty interesting hand, and I started to rethink what I wrote a little while ago so thought it over some more. And reread your post. In the end I convinced myself even more that Ciderman played the hand fine, and you should've folded... in fact I decided that I had actually underestimated the magnitude of the mistake in your call in my previous post, as it turns out. Again, not trying to be a dick here, just think is an interesting hand and non-trivial to see your fold, and worthwhile exercise for myself to try to illuminate.

[ QUOTE ]
1) I didn't criticize Ciderman's turn play, but if you take the "don't focus on the result" line of reasoning, Ciderman could have been drawing mostly dead, he had middle trips and a gutshot redraw to the second best straight. All the more reason in my mind why he should have bet the flop to chase hands like mine, and potential flush draws, AND to define where he was in the hand.

2) As for folding my hand on the turn, that would have been a mistake under the circumstances irrespective of the "result". Was it possible I had less equity than I did? Yes! Was it likely I had insufficient equity to make the call? I think no.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is where I think you're making an error in reasnoning, because I disagree with both statements pretty strongly. I know you're not saying it's likely that Ciderman is drawing nearly dead, but only saying it's possible. Fine, that's technically true. But that scenario isn't probable enough to have much impact at all on his range-of-scenarios type theoretical equity calculation. Why? Well, Ciderman is only drawing nearly dead to one possible hand--top set. That is very unlikely given that the flop checked through, because as you know virtually nobody at these levels has the discipline to sit on top set. It could still happen, but the flop action and moreover the prior probability of someone being dealt QQ and sticking in the hand, etc, makes it extremely unlikely. Significantly, against just about every other hand matchup out there, he is a significant favorite, or at the very least making a strongly +EV play still while not being the favorite, due to weird multiway action (as in this case, due to very bad luck for him).

On the flipside, I believe you actually were very fortunate to have as much pot equity as you did on the turn. Here's the equity situation as the hand went down:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 32 enumerated boards containing Js 4c 7d Qh
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Jc 9c Jd Kh 6 14 17 1 0 0 0 0.328
2c Ad 6h 5h 4 4 28 0 19 0 0 0.359
Ks 9s Tc Td 4 11 20 1 0 0 0 0.250
6s Qd Th 4h 2 2 30 0 0 0 0 0.062

The source of your "good fortune" in equity here is twofold. One, the 6QT4 idiot is killing a couple outs to your reasonable opponents' draws, and the JJJ guy is killing some of the wrap guy's str outs as well. Secondly, you not only have the only nut low draw, you have the only low draw period. We might be able to toggle a couple other cards to make the situation even better for you, but realistically this equity situation is virtually the absolute best possible situation you could've hoped for.

OK, now let's relax these fortuitous coincidences for a second and see what happens. First, let's take out the moron and pretend he folds (and that Q & T are still live):

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing Js 4c 7d Qh
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Jc 9c Jd Kh 10 19 15 2 0 0 0 0.431
2c Ad 6h 5h 4 4 32 0 20 0 0 0.333
Ks 9s Tc Td 4 11 23 2 0 0 0 0.236

Still +EV for you, but barely, since the pot is small relative to stacks.

Now let's give the top set guy any low, instead of the gutshot str outs:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing Js 4c 7d Qh
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Jc 6c Jd 2h 10 17 19 0 0 14 0 0.375
2c Ad 6h 5h 4 4 32 0 18 0 0 0.306
Ks 9s Tc Td 8 15 21 0 0 0 0 0.319

Note that he CANNOT win the low with this matchup, but that just by taking some of your low outs away, your equity now is neutral EV at best. Give him a live low draw that *just quarters* you if you c-feit the deuce:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing Js 4c 7d Qh
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Jc 5c Jd Ah 10 18 18 0 0 11 3 0.410
2c Ad 6h 5h 4 4 32 0 15 0 3 0.285
Ks 9s Tc Td 8 14 22 0 0 0 0 0.306

Now you're making a -EV play. By the way, I'd put a marker at this point for a reasonable middle-of-range scenario for how your hand stacks up against the hands of opponents who are betting and raising at this point in the hand. However, it can get a lot worse:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing Js 4c 7d Qh
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Jc Jd 3d Ah 13 19 17 0 3 10 0 0.444
2c Ad 6h 5h 3 3 33 0 15 3 0 0.250
Ks 9s Tc Td 8 14 22 0 0 0 0 0.306

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing Js 4c 7d Qh
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Jc Jd 2d Ah 10 18 18 0 0 0 14 0.486
2c Ad 6h 5h 0 4 32 0 4 0 14 0.208
Ks 9s Tc Td 8 14 22 0 0 0 0 0.306

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing Js 4c 7d Qh
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Jc 3d 2d Ah 13 19 17 0 4 0 13 0.562
2c Ad 6h 5h 0 3 33 0 0 4 13 0.132
Ks 9s Tc Td 8 14 22 0 0 0 0 0.306

And, neither of these last two scenarios are nearly as improbable as is the scenario where Ciderman is up against a hand that dominates his... he will virtually never not be a substantial favorite over the field with that board after the turn, and so on balance he is making a sure-thing +EV bet, and a substantially +EV one at that, over the long run. On the flipside, your scenario range takes you pretty far into the disaster zone without becoming ridiculously unlikely. Sure, sometimes you will hit an EV homerun like you did here, but I'm afraid not often enough to make it a positive expectation play.