[aujoz]

Mate,

pre-flop, you can't possibly put him on only AK/AQ. This is a big error. Your only info is a raise - a raise that could mean much more than AK/AQ. For instance, if you were playing me, I raise in that situation with QQ - and thus, this would be another possible hand.

You need to start thinking in terms of ranges - obviously, a pre-flop raise could mean a variety of things, but typically it means a hand in the top x% of possible starting hands. x% is dependent on the player, the size of blinds, the size of stacks, position, etc. It's a judgement call.

Regardless, the pre-flop raise includes a variety of hands. You're about 50/50 against two overcards, and a big dog against a bigger pair. The only hands that you're leading are two undercards and a smaller PP - hands that are very unlikely to be raised in that situation by the other player.

(Note for nitpickers: You may be able to make up some of that deficiency agaisnt his range by forcing a player to fold on the flop, after only seeing 3 of the 5 community cards - eg, AK is 45% against 99 only if all 5 cards will be dealt. However, this is offset somewhat by not knowing if the flop hit the opponent if there are overcards - eg, if JQx came on the flop, you'll be leading against AK and AT, but you won't know it)


The big bet on the flop by the opponent would incline me to put them on the big pocket pair, especially one that is afraid of overcards. Of course, they may think you think the bet means this, in which case....