[Tel]

Hi,
I've been playing for two months so don't have any stats or real statistics to go by but it seems I was pretty much in the same boat until recently. Play ok in nl and struggle in limit. Started at the bottom, 5/10 cent.
By struggle I mean averaging 5BB/100 for a month then hit a down swing. It persisted for 2 weeks and zapped me back to 50% over where I started. I had in the mean time moved up to 25/50 when I hit the downswing.

Analysis showed two of the normal leaks, too loose and too much chasing. In other words lack of discipline. To address this I have been choosing extremely loose and aggressive tables where the norm is 80-90% to the flop and around 50% at the showdown! If I can win here consistently then I can move on. I have turned it around but it's too early to shout it out.

My conclusions, if I may be so bold with such little experience, is that at this level you will not frighten anyone off however much you raise and reraise. The only reason to raise is to increase the pot size.
One can alternatively do the same thing as the loose players and chase cards as long as you start with good pocket cards and can do it for free. Pay on the turn if you have to and the flop is good (for a straight or flush - four card open ended, but don't chase two to a straight or flush). If it falls in place then bet all you can on the river, don't fret, they'll follow and top up the pot for you.
Secondly you can hardly ever get a read on a loose player so don't bother trying. Play the cards. It becomes obvious when a 9, T or whatever hits and someone suddenly starts betting, they hit a pair, maybe even a set, yippee. You need better than that.
Thirdly if it looks like there's a straight or flush draw then someone will have it. This can be any flush, however, so if you have a flush with anything over an 8 on hand it's a call or even raise [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
Can you win at this? Sure you can but man it's boring. Fold over and over, play only the strongest hands (Sklansky groups 1-5 depending) and your big blind as far and often as you can, position makes very little difference here, you've got so many in - with whatever, and tactics is 'pearls before swine'. When your good starter does finally hit then make sure it pays. But even here your AA KK can and will frequently lose if it doesn't turn into a FH so be prepared to fold when you believe you are beaten.
If you believe you are beaten then fold, you are right 9 times out of ten, save the pennies, it makes all the difference.
Use the dead time to examine the other's play, how they bet and with what. It'll be useful later.
When you have zapped a few in a row with a great hand then one of two things will happen. 1) They'll leave the table - no fun anymore or 2) They'll start folding on you and down goes your profit.
In the latter case throw out some garbage as cheap as you can but don't resort to the trick of just showing garbage, play it out, then everything is hunky dory again for another couple of zaps. Incidentally if you see someone showing garbage you can take it as read that the next hand won't be. You notice, they may not.
Fourthly, don't forget that the 80% to the flop are always the same 80%. The other 20% are like us, out to win. Note who they are, if you play against them then the 'normal' rules will apply. Any raise will generally mean something or a bluff but here you can use the nl tactics and it will work. The 20% will also help get the pot up for you when you are both in.
I do like the line in Sklansky/Mason HEP FAP reasons why people bet on nothing
"1) They are idiots."
though they may just out for fun and don't care about the money.

And finally, AMinor's first law of poker:-
If your odds on winning a hand are 66% then you will lose this hand 9 times out of ten.

Hope this helps.
AMinor.

PS Comments from more experienced players welcomed.