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Search took 0.01 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: LogistX
Forum: Sports Betting 11-28-2007, 01:26 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 9,388
Posted By LogistX
Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

Is anyone buying into the Albert Haynesworth is the Bob Sanders of last year bit? With Tennessee looking as bad as they have been without him, I'm wondering if there's much value in following his...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-27-2007, 09:08 PM
Replies: 180
Views: 1,449
Posted By LogistX
Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===

I carved a weekend out of Tuesday through Thursday and I headed to Vegas. Does anyone have any good recommendations on sportsbooks in Vegas to go for props?
Forum: Sports Betting 11-21-2007, 03:07 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 151
Posted By LogistX
Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend

Here's the numbers again where spread >= (1/4)(total). I added two extra columns. The extra columns attempt to capture the correlation between the events. "Fav" shows the win/loss/tie record of the...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-20-2007, 06:12 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 151
Posted By LogistX
Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend

[ QUOTE ]
Does raising the cutoff to 33% or greater drastically change the outcome?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll check when I get home from work. In theory, the higher the %, the better the parlay should be....
Forum: Sports Betting 11-20-2007, 01:15 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 151
Posted By LogistX
Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend

This is the outcome of blindly betting this in the NFL since 1990 based on the repole numbers. The criterion was where spread >= (1/4)(total). This only counts weeks 1-9 of 2007 and the regular...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-15-2007, 12:25 AM
Replies: 43
Views: 408
Posted By LogistX
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/19/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (TEN @ DEN)***

[ QUOTE ]
If I think Tenn wins 50% of the time, then I need Denver to win by 1 or 2 (I'm assuming the odds of winning by 1 are similar enough to winning by 2 for this), 3.28% of the time each for it...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-09-2007, 05:19 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 107
Posted By LogistX
Re: Dr. Bob

Dr. Bob's NFL Picks (http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=529308)
Forum: Sports Betting 11-04-2007, 04:32 AM
Replies: 57
Views: 644
Posted By LogistX
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8

[ QUOTE ]
Think about this. That market forces have moved it is exactly what makes it the "true" line.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you believe in a perfectly efficient sports betting market, what are you...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-03-2007, 07:28 PM
Replies: 39
Views: 468
Posted By LogistX
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

[ QUOTE ]
Don't ask me why. I'm a Charger fan and we're onto our 3rd string nose tackle, I believe. We are going to have problems with Peterson.

[/ QUOTE ]
I take this back. Jamal Williams...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-03-2007, 07:20 PM
Replies: 57
Views: 644
Posted By LogistX
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8

I'm not trying to say the books are wrong and the widely available line is -7, not -7.5. My only point is that if the line is pushed to -7.5 through what appears to be a lot of BSPs betting up the...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-03-2007, 04:58 PM
Replies: 57
Views: 644
Posted By LogistX
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8

Sigh. I'm not trying to make a point that the books are wrong. This is going nowhere...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-03-2007, 02:47 PM
Replies: 57
Views: 644
Posted By LogistX
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8

Do you believe that large amounts of square action sharpens a line? I don't. Unless by sharpen, you don't mean get closer to the "true" line.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-02-2007, 02:20 PM
Replies: 57
Views: 644
Posted By LogistX
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8

I think you're right. I guess my point was that if wongs are meant to beat sharp lines then this doesn't appear to be a sharp line since it's moving based on action and not on proper handicapping....
Forum: Sports Betting 11-02-2007, 01:51 PM
Replies: 57
Views: 644
Posted By LogistX
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8

[ QUOTE ]
Sports Insights latest numbers show SD getting 81% of the bets which makes the line move totally logical in which case SD is a wong teaser play. Assuming the line holds of course.

[/...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-01-2007, 08:03 PM
Replies: 57
Views: 644
Posted By LogistX
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8

I actually find the alternative interesting. I brought it up in another thread and I didn't feel that it was adequately answered:
The SD game opened at -7 and it appeared that it moved to -7.5...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-01-2007, 07:54 PM
Replies: 57
Views: 644
Posted By LogistX
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8

[ QUOTE ]
Except in very rare cases, I would not bother teasing these games anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]
Or if the line moved again before Sunday.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-01-2007, 07:53 PM
Replies: 57
Views: 644
Posted By LogistX
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8

[ QUOTE ]
Dali, another question. For examples I will use Denver and San Diego. For a substantial length of time this week San Diego was -7.5 and Denver was +2.5, which are wongs.

However, they...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-31-2007, 05:19 PM
Replies: 156
Views: 849
Posted By LogistX
Re: Predict the Opening Line: Pats in Indy

[ QUOTE ]
Vegas is begging people to bet the Colts. They are tired of losing money on the Pats.

[/ QUOTE ]
I, for one, will definitely oblige. -3/100 may be an overstatement, but is PICK/-110...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-31-2007, 01:15 PM
Replies: 39
Views: 468
Posted By LogistX
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

[ QUOTE ]
god the public is in love with the chargers this week. they are wongable but most everyone is picking them.

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't ask me why. I'm a Charger fan and we're onto our 3rd...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-31-2007, 01:13 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 260
Posted By LogistX
Re: New to whole Wong Teaser but potential one for week 9

I think there is a difference between the lines sharpening and when the lines move based on people slamming one side. I know that it is not always trivial why a line moves, but in this case it seems...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-30-2007, 11:45 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 260
Posted By LogistX
Re: New to whole Wong Teaser but potential one for week 9

I have a question about wong teasers. Currently, I'm seeing SD at -7.5 @ Min. Obviously I intend to wait until Sunday, but presuming SD is still at -7.5, I would think this is not a great wonging...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-30-2007, 09:04 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 109
Posted By LogistX
Re: NFL - Is home team advantage dropping?

Did you guys take into account "home" games played outside of the home stadium? Those might need to be disregarded. New Orleans' games in Texas after Katrina shouldn't count. The game in London and...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-30-2007, 04:25 PM
Replies: 39
Views: 468
Posted By LogistX
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

The difference between Bills +1 and Bills -1 is not that big of a move considering that the game will almost never end in a tie. Very few games are decided by 1 points.

Yes, I know 2 Bills games...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-29-2007, 06:27 PM
Replies: 39
Views: 502
Posted By LogistX
Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8

[ QUOTE ]
Carolina +7 at Bodog. I really need money in that book...

[/ QUOTE ]
I am fortunate I do not have money in that book =). Betonline still had it at +6.5 so I passed on it.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-29-2007, 05:45 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 96
Posted By LogistX
Re: Help me make a line: NE wins vs. Rest of Division wins.

I would be willing to take AFC East (except Pats) +4. Any bankers?
Showing results 1 to 25 of 86
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