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Search: Posts Made By: thelyingthief
Forum: Sports Betting 11-04-2007, 03:04 PM
Replies: 176
Views: 577
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines

[ QUOTE ]
Way to luckbox to a push. Congrats!

[/ QUOTE ]


i got it at 1.5, tommy.
and the point is the ridicule vs. the accuracy of my opinion.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-04-2007, 03:02 PM
Replies: 156
Views: 853
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: Predict the Opening Line: Pats in Indy

you know, all you need to do is examine my various observations and analyses of games, collate the outcomes, and decide if i know what i'm talking about or not.

when it comes to football, i'm the...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-04-2007, 02:51 PM
Replies: 156
Views: 853
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: Predict the Opening Line: Pats in Indy

the great thing about opinions is, you don't have to be right, you just have to be obstinate.

democracies fall for that reason.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-04-2007, 02:46 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 49
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: Three True Outcomes/Sim

if you're creating a simulation, you certainly don't want to use factors that are wrong, would you?
Forum: Sports Betting 11-03-2007, 10:32 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 284
Posted By thelyingthief
Forum: Sports Betting 11-03-2007, 07:21 PM
Replies: 176
Views: 577
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
or is there a legitimate reason for Texas to be favored here. Some injury or something that I'm missing.

[/ QUOTE ]

there a lot more texas natives betting...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-03-2007, 11:48 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 284
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: Anybody got a loc on a 3 team cfball parlay tomorrow?

wait a minute.
have i got this right?

"i couldn't do it yesterday in the nba; could you do it for me today in the cfb."

is that what he's saying?
really?

i mean, are we talking about the...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-03-2007, 11:42 AM
Replies: 156
Views: 853
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: Predict the Opening Line: Pats in Indy

meaningless?!!! dude, we're talking homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. have you looked at indy's remaining games, and compared them to NE's? seems to me, indy HAS to win this game to win...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-03-2007, 11:11 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 54
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: +EV in horseracing?

i use an energy/velocity modeling methodology, combined with data-mining. past performance patterns and data, race conditions, and training patterns are the areas i focus on most in my data...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-03-2007, 02:31 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 82
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: Need Old lines - I have a DVOA/NFL system that

im confused: according to footballoutsiders, they have analyzed only a limited number of nfl seasons (2002-2007)using the DVOA/DAVE method.

why, then, do you need a lot of seasons?
Forum: Sports Betting 11-03-2007, 02:21 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 54
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: +EV in horseracing?

a) some handicappers make body language a major component of their analysis, and how the tail, the ears, the neck, and the gait appear can point to a ready horse or a unfit, unhappy horse. so, your...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-03-2007, 02:12 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 88
Posted By thelyingthief
Forum: Sports Betting 11-03-2007, 12:15 AM
Replies: 156
Views: 853
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: Predict the Opening Line: Pats in Indy

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looks like Marvin Harrison will be out for Sunday, He didn't practice on Thu and Dungy said He'd be doubtful, if that matters to anyone.

[/ QUOTE ]

medically cleared to...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-02-2007, 06:05 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 104
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: Nevada vs New Mexico St. tonight.

nev lists the first and 2nd team strongside tackles as out, the WR King as out, and lists starters DE clark, DB anaya,LB Magua as out.

except for one game, the qb at nmste completes passes in the...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-02-2007, 10:46 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 641
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: %%% Official Saturday CFB Thread %%%

well, i know i feel underestimated.

-tlt
Forum: Sports Betting 11-01-2007, 06:53 PM
Replies: 176
Views: 577
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines

[ QUOTE ]


A&M beat OSU by 1, not the other way around.

[/ QUOTE ]

so THAT'S what that L means in the won loss column?! alrighty then.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-01-2007, 05:39 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 641
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: %%% Official Saturday CFB Thread %%%

that's pretty funny stuff. actually. in fact, it belongs squarely in an "official saturday cfb thread".

-tlt
Forum: Sports Betting 11-01-2007, 05:34 PM
Replies: 176
Views: 577
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines

here's a couple of interesting factoids: the starting vtech center is out, replaced by a redshirt freshman.

gatech blitzes an average of 32 times a game. 259 out of a total of 514 defensive plays....
Forum: Sports Betting 11-01-2007, 05:31 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 300
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: is virginia tech one of those too good to be true games tonight?

here's a couple of interesting factoids: the starting vtech center is out, replaced by a redshirt freshman.

gatech blitzes an average of 32 times a game. 259 out of a total of 514 defensive...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-01-2007, 05:22 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 300
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: is virginia tech one of those too good to be true games tonight?

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for alerting me to this game. #11 @ an unranked team that received 0 votes, and the unranked team is favored? I'm betting GT just on principle.

[/ QUOTE ]

you'll have to...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-01-2007, 05:19 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 90
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: last week colts/titans teaser

i had precisely that teaser, 11 to 10.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-01-2007, 04:07 PM
Replies: 156
Views: 853
Posted By thelyingthief
Forum: Sports Betting 11-01-2007, 11:08 AM
Replies: 156
Views: 853
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: Predict the Opening Line: Pats in Indy

[ QUOTE ]

at 92% id think that the line wouldve hit 6.5 or 7 by now...

[/ QUOTE ]

obviously, the books are taking the other side: this is an outstanding time to recoup some of that lost...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-01-2007, 11:00 AM
Replies: 156
Views: 853
Posted By thelyingthief
Re: Predict the Opening Line: Pats in Indy

[ QUOTE ]
They would probably get 90%+ of the action

[/ QUOTE ]

hey, quess what? they ARE getting 90+% of the action.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-31-2007, 10:24 PM
Replies: 156
Views: 853
Posted By thelyingthief
Showing results 1 to 25 of 280

 
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