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Search took 0.00 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: rwperu34
Forum: Sporting Events 12-01-2007, 04:30 PM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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If someone can explain to me how a summation of outcomes can change depending on the team you're on in baseball atleast in terms of value, I'd be quite interested to...
Forum: Sporting Events 12-01-2007, 04:28 PM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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What kind of trade value could the Twins potentially get for Nathan?

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A lot. Probably a core type player plus a second or third tier prospect.
Forum: Sporting Events 12-01-2007, 05:35 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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Can you explain why the Yankees wouldn't dump someone like Wang for a higher EV player like Evan Longoria if you're looking for the most +EV (summation of outcomes, I mean we're not...
Forum: Sporting Events 12-01-2007, 05:17 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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If someone can explain to me how a summation of outcomes can change depending on the team you're on in baseball atleast in terms of value, I'd be quite interested to hear the explanation. ...
Forum: Sporting Events 12-01-2007, 01:39 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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It is possible to improve defensively, you know. Just because people thought he couldn't hack it doesn't mean he can't, and the only data we have on him shows that Lind is a average or...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-30-2007, 11:34 PM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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Reed Johnson is definitely a better fielder, but Lind was good in 2007.

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As much as I wish Lind was good in the field, he isn't.

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Forum: Sporting Events 11-30-2007, 07:53 PM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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Ok, you're right, he isn't actually overpaid. After putting together back to back seasons of below average (for CF) hitting I don't know that he is violently underpaid either. I think...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-30-2007, 07:04 PM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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That and Crisp is overpaid, fragile and forgot how to hit.


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Crisp is violently underpaid.

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Melky has a lot more "upside". If I was rwperu I'd say...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 06:56 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

I'm going to leave this discussion with this. There are a few things I'd be willing to bet on.

1. Delmon Young will outproduce his PECOTA/ZIPS projection. I don't even know what his PECOTA OPS...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 06:50 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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Dude, what are you talking about? Once a pitcher demonstrates an ability to rape AA and AAA he's not NEARLY as risky as before. Garza is great in the stat that most accurately reflects...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 05:35 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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if i wasn't so sure vegas would open the tampa o/u at 68 wins next year, i'd put about half my bankroll on under 20 here.

i'm too old for childish back-and-forth arguments on 2+2, but...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 05:24 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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Actually I thought about a couple more points. You keep referring to DY as a five tool player, but he's horrible defensively, he's got a strong arm but no accuracy, he strikes out way too...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 05:11 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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The longer he stagnates the less likely it is he'll achieve his upside.

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He's 22 in 2008.

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Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 02:58 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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i put my writeup of the trade on my blog. cliffs: d-rays win, as usual

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I though this was particularly funny;

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Tampa has pulled off a nice trade that...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 02:46 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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Again, like most poker players you seem to think doing the most EV thing in every situation is the best option. Its clear that it isn't the best option in every...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 02:38 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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The longer he stagnates the less likely it is he'll achieve his upside.

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He's 22 in 2008.
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 02:30 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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Don't trade a guy coming off of a bad year or for a guy coming off of a good year.

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Earth-shattering hypothesis, sir. You might like this book called...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 02:29 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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WTF, the final trade was Garza/Barlett and Eduardo Morlan, not Rincon. Imo that makes the trade pretty clearly in TB's favor.

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Meh. I'm not sure that Morlan has any more...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 02:27 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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Again, like most poker players you seem to think doing the most EV thing in every situation is the best option. Its clear that it isn't the best option in every scenario. Back to the...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 02:25 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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What if Garza is the next Brazelton or Hamilton?

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what's with the hamilton comparison? garza doesn't have a drug problem, but given hamilton's studly MLB...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 12:37 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

You know what this reminds me of? It reminds me of when Alfonso Soriano was traded for Brad Wilkerson. SE was like "Huge win for the Rangers," and I said, "Have you lost your mind? Soriano has tools...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 12:29 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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rwperu34 delmon young was below replacement level in 2007. by like a full win.

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No, he wasn't. He was a full win below average.
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 12:13 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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That's not his ceiling. He has very little chance of becoming this. His more likely ceiling is .300/.350/.550. Something should not be considered a "ceiling" when there's like a 2% chance...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-28-2007, 11:59 PM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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rwperu is under the impression that Brignac, Longoria, McGee, Davis, Sonnanstine, Howell, and Niemann all turn into above-average players. The reality is that the Rays will be lucky to...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-28-2007, 11:21 PM
Replies: 322
Views: 7,715
Posted By rwperu34
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

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rwperu,

I don't know WTF you're talking about with team construction, but I'm pretty sure its bad and wrong.

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Are you telling me if you had two...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 61
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