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Forum: Sports Betting 12-01-2007, 05:57 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 205
Posted By Performify
Re: the proof is in the pudding

ldo.

Another pudding question. My local Thai place has a fantastic coconut custardish desert. It has a thai name. Can i call that pudding, if it shares the consistency?

If so, that's clearly...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-01-2007, 05:48 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 205
Posted By Performify
Re: the proof is in the pudding

This thread really got me thinking introspectively about some stuff. Which I guess is probably a lot more productive than anything I expected to come out of a thread with pudding in the title.

If...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-01-2007, 05:39 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 205
Posted By Performify
Re: the proof is in the pudding

[ QUOTE ]
I had one of those Starbucks coffee Frappuccino things in a bottle earlier today and I thought, "Man, this tastes kind of like pudding."
Then I opened this thread. It was weird.

[/...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-01-2007, 05:39 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 205
Posted By Performify
Re: the proof is in the pudding

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he's actually 60% to win a game, his "true" line for that game is -150.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, yeah, obviously, but we were talking about his true line to pick 60/100,...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-01-2007, 05:32 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 205
Posted By Performify
Re: the proof is in the pudding

If he's actually 60% to win a game, his "true" line for that game is -150.

Switching subjects, if the widely available line is -110, a 60% win rate represents a Kelly stake of 16% of his...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-01-2007, 04:22 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 205
Posted By Performify
Re: the proof is in the pudding

Rereading this, the only thing I can think is maybe cat just doesn't get what is being offered.

They're not asking to book your bets.

They're offering a straight up challenge wager, a 10k...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-01-2007, 04:11 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 205
Posted By Performify
Re: the proof is in the pudding

[ QUOTE ]
i MAKE 3 to 1 on my money.

[/ QUOTE ]


lol


If you're reliably making 3:1 every 60-90 days, you'd be a multi-millionaire from sports betting alone.
Forum: Sports Betting 12-01-2007, 03:13 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 205
Posted By Performify
Re: the proof is in the pudding

[ QUOTE ]
It's funny - perf's avatar shows exactly how I imagine him as he moderates this forum. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


/images/graemlins/grin.gif I put it together for...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-01-2007, 01:48 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 205
Posted By Performify
Re: the proof is in the pudding

[ QUOTE ]
such a howl and crescendo..

yes, indeed, the whole gist of the post was missed; and, in being missed, underscored...


[/ QUOTE ]

So enlighten us, oh masterful picker of the 61%...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-01-2007, 02:55 AM
Replies: 99
Views: 205
Posted By Performify
Re: the proof is in the pudding

Heh.

If I turned in to NT, I'd probably be banning Thremp every two days...

-P
Forum: Sports Betting 12-01-2007, 02:41 AM
Replies: 99
Views: 205
Posted By Performify
Re: the proof is in the pudding

From the FAQ:

# What is the highest sustainable win rate in point spread betting?
# Generally, somewhere in the 55%-60% range is considered the maximum that is sustainable. However, if you start...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-30-2007, 08:06 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 80
Posted By Performify
Re: Likely dumb vig question

Yes, the average would be -270. Probably just a typo.

For those following along at home, you can do all the math above with a Moneyline Converter, for example...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-30-2007, 05:34 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 73
Posted By Performify
Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Allow me to answer your question with a question:

My bookie dropped his wallet. I picked it up. It contains thousands of SklanskyBucks.

Should I return it?

For what...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-30-2007, 02:49 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 28
Posted By Performify
Re: Why The Miami Dolphins Get Their First Win Sunday!

Discussion for the Miami game belongs in this thread:


http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=0#Post13133429...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-30-2007, 02:41 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 73
Posted By Performify
Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors

[ QUOTE ]
tell him he has an error

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed.

As Dali found out first hand, dealing with locals is a whole different story.

If you want to continue to be able to use his...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-30-2007, 02:37 PM
Replies: 180
Views: 105
Posted By Performify
Forum: Sports Betting 11-28-2007, 05:16 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 22
Posted By Performify
Re: Conditions this week at Heinz Field

There is already an official thread for this game. This discussion should go there.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=13133517

-P
Forum: Sports Betting 11-28-2007, 03:57 AM
Replies: 180
Views: 105
Posted By Performify
Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===

Titans over the Texans i'd say. Rivalry game and they have a big need to reverse their recent skid.

Washington over Buffalo would be my clear pick if not for the Sean Springs situation. Might...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-28-2007, 01:37 AM
Replies: 21
Views: 44
Posted By Performify
Re: hows this for a teaser?

WarDekar ran himself off (or threatened to) solely on the behavior of one poster, Hedgie43, with less than 400 posts.

That's not exactly the consensus of the forum rising up against him. Thremp,...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-28-2007, 01:02 AM
Replies: 24
Views: 44
Posted By Performify
Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz

Nice find, thanks Naj.

-P
Forum: Sports Betting 11-28-2007, 01:01 AM
Replies: 19
Views: 24
Posted By Performify
Re: How does a book determine if you\'re a sharp?

Bodog's sharp lines are usually shaded towards the underdogs, just not so much.

If you exclusively bet underdogs at Bodog, even at $10 a bet, I imagine you'll be on the sharp lines after a couple...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-28-2007, 12:37 AM
Replies: 5
MMA
Views: 20
Posted By Performify
Re: MMA

[ QUOTE ]
That Lyoto line was free money.

[/ QUOTE ]
Forum: Sports Betting 11-27-2007, 11:31 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 24
Posted By Performify
Re: How does a book determine if you\'re a sharp?

Pinnacle has never dealt double lines to my knowledge.

They have served different limits.

-P
Forum: Sports Betting 11-27-2007, 10:49 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 24
Posted By Performify
Re: How does a book determine if you\'re a sharp?

Cat is incorrect.

Bodog (and most other sites) deal sharp lines by account, regardless of IP. Your behavior there gets flagged as sharp (primarily betting primarily the underdogs which are shaded...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-27-2007, 05:43 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 31
Posted By Performify
Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

Correct, Ganchow's Push Frequencies post linked above are the push numbers.

The numbers I gave above are pure margin of victory for the NFL, which is what we were talking about here ("bell curve...
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