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Forum: Golf 11-29-2007, 08:33 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 2,298
Posted By knicknut
Re: Greatest/Most Memorable Golf Moments Picture Thread

The three I thought of:

#3
http://www.majorchampionships.com/images/crenshaw1.jpg

#2
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2004/20040413/sp1.jpg
Forum: Sports Betting 11-29-2007, 08:27 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 28
Posted By knicknut
Re: Effect of early start-time?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, MicroBob, I forgot to add [/sarcasm].

Like you, I wish we had more on this angle. Unlike cato-tonia, I'm not an [censored].

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, you're just a...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-25-2007, 09:45 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 18
Posted By knicknut
Re: Staff suicide pool. What should happen in case of a tie?

My very uneducated guess would be that the rules state/imply "if you lose, you're out." If they tie, they don't lose, so I say they're still in.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-25-2007, 05:06 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 19
Posted By knicknut
Re: It\'s Wong City!!

[ QUOTE ]
plus the gain from getting the 8.5->9.0 points isn't nearly as much as the theoretical loss from wonging a +3.0 team.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's also going to happen a lot less frequently...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-25-2007, 05:00 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 13
Posted By knicknut
Re: 3 Team NBA Box--SHIP IT? or NO?

Uh, this is better than betting each team individually?

Considering you get terrible odds at most sites to parlay (you're better off "if bet"ting, at least then you usually get true odds), all I...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-25-2007, 02:01 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 19
Posted By knicknut
Re: It\'s Wong City!!

[ QUOTE ]
Wait to noon, what's the rush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, 3 of the 5 lines moved out of range in favor of the OP at many books. 1 moved worse (carolina), one stayed the same (NYG).

So I...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-25-2007, 01:58 PM
Replies: 45
Views: 34
Posted By knicknut
Re: Wong Teasers, Week 12

[censored], absolutely nothing available at Bodog, the only place with teasers I have a decent amount of money. Decided to wait an hour to hope some numbers came back, and lost Cincy and Denver in...
Forum: Small Stakes 11-20-2007, 10:52 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 8
Posted By knicknut
Re: $100nl: I squeeze with KK, flop brings an ace

Not all hands in this range will react the same way to different actions. I don't think it's wise to rely too heavily on combinatorics here. Is villain really ready to commit with 88-TT when we...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-19-2007, 09:43 PM
Replies: 56
Views: 18
Posted By knicknut
Re: Pirateboy\'s NCAAF ML Dogs Experiment - W9

I don't quite understand what you mean... are you saying the difference in standard deviations can't be that big?

My question is then how do you account for why sportsbooks make different...
Forum: Small Stakes 11-19-2007, 04:30 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 8
Posted By knicknut
Re: $100nl: I squeeze with KK, flop brings an ace

[ QUOTE ]
So, are you putting him on exactly AQ or AK ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your pot odds assuming you get all in are 132.5:75.5, you need to win > 36% of the time.

I think you find AA, AK, or AQ...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-19-2007, 04:26 PM
Replies: 127
Views: 42
Posted By knicknut
Re: Patriots line -24.5 before the end of the season?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the jet game should be the most lopsided line of alltime

bellicheck is really gonna wanna run the score up

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. The line should be -28
Forum: Small Stakes 11-19-2007, 04:15 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 8
Posted By knicknut
Re: $100nl: I squeeze with KK, flop brings an ace

I'm not sure there's much a 23/10 will call a RR PF with, the bet that strongly when an A flops, then will call your push with an inferior hand. He has to think you have an A or a pair (assuming you...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-19-2007, 03:49 PM
Replies: 56
Views: 18
Posted By knicknut
Re: Pirateboy\'s NCAAF ML Dogs Experiment - W9

[ QUOTE ]
Great week finally. 7-6 +13u

YTD 27-49 +.9u

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious if you have a comment to refute my last point. Are you considering something that I did not include in my...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-19-2007, 03:48 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 7
Posted By knicknut
Re: Matchbook Commission Questions

[ QUOTE ]
There is something I dont understand and I cant find an answer at their site. Can anyone please explain for me?

Ok, for starters it says they take 2% from wins as their commission. That...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-18-2007, 05:31 PM
Replies: 39
Views: 11
Posted By knicknut
Re: Wong Teasers, week 11

Ship ITTTTTTTTTT
Forum: Sports Betting 11-18-2007, 03:26 PM
Replies: 39
Views: 11
Posted By knicknut
Re: Wong Teasers, week 11

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm I'm not betting until Dali posts his picks

[/ QUOTE ]

I really hope your reason is the admittedly irrational yet understandable "he's lucky so they'll only win if he's in on...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-18-2007, 01:09 PM
Replies: 39
Views: 11
Posted By knicknut
Re: Wong Teasers, week 11

[ QUOTE ]
Titans????

[/ QUOTE ]

Titans were +1 on Bodog for me when I checked. Now they're back to +1.5 but boxed so I can't tease it. Hopefully it'll get unboxed by 1PM.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-18-2007, 11:58 AM
Replies: 39
Views: 11
Posted By knicknut
Wong Teasers, week 11

Baltimore and Detroit are both home dogs with minus odds on the +2.5 at Pinny. Got 'em at Bodog on +3 each for 3 units (since there's only one teaser).

GOGOGOGOGOGO
Forum: Sports Betting 11-17-2007, 05:45 PM
Replies: 56
Views: 18
Posted By knicknut
Re: Pirateboy\'s NCAAF ML Dogs Experiment - W9

I don't know if you've addressed this, but you're wrongfully assuming that average point spread and winning probability are directly related. While they're certainly highly correlated, they're not...
Forum: Golf 11-13-2007, 11:58 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 14
Posted By knicknut
Re: Hypothetical bet on the golf course involving throwing a football.

Perception is very different because the sizes are so much longer. The longest baseball I've ever hit (and I've bombed a few) probably goes as far as an average pitching wedge (142/425, sounds about...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-03-2007, 02:21 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 15
Posted By knicknut
Re: Partybets refuses to tell me juice on certain sports

[ QUOTE ]
I emailed party asking them what % their juice was. Their first response:

Dear xxxx,
Thank you for contacting PartyBets Customer Care.
Unfortunately, due to some technical...
Forum: Golf 11-01-2007, 09:49 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 25
Posted By knicknut
Re: Big Break: Mesquite

I watched an episode and it was all at Oasis. A shame they didn't use Wolf Creek. Oasis is a nice course and a couple holes are gorgeous, but IMO is the third best course in Mesquite.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-30-2007, 04:28 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 9
Posted By knicknut
Re: NFL - Is home team advantage dropping?

can you do a t test on this? a binomial testing the last 5 years with a mu of time before that or something?
Forum: Sports Betting 10-29-2007, 09:21 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 6
Posted By knicknut
Re: Sportsbook whoring?

Yeah, arbing is great until (a) you screw it upa nd bet the same side, (b) the line moves or you can't get the bet in and get exposed on one side, (c) the site sees you as a "steam" bettor and...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-28-2007, 05:58 PM
Replies: 57
Views: 21
Posted By knicknut
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8

Wow, frickin niners... and i went heavy on their part of my rr too...
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