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Forum: Small Stakes Limit 07-19-2007, 02:06 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 55
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: Limit poker bankroll question

thanks guys for the responses, I appreciate all of them.
I have a real small bankroll and I'm mainly just looking to learn how to play the game and hopefully how to win. I just got King Yao's book...
Forum: Small Stakes Limit 07-18-2007, 07:42 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 55
Posted By newb411breaker19
Limit poker bankroll question

I'm very new to this, when determining the limits you play at, how many big bets should your entire bankroll be able to cover? thanks
Forum: Sports Betting 07-03-2007, 07:56 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 164
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: Irisheyes\' MLB Overnight Robot

irish, the reason I chose to go back three season was mainly because last season was somewhat of an anamoly with the high scoring which most likely had something to do with pitchers not taking...
Forum: Sports Betting 07-03-2007, 06:11 AM
Replies: 36
Views: 164
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: Irisheyes\' MLB Overnight Robot

irisheyes, what's interesting about these various methods of handicapping is how people can end up on different sides of games based on what information the choose to use. I've done pretty well in...
Forum: Sports Betting 06-16-2007, 09:38 PM
Replies: 287
Views: 1,420
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: TomG\'s Robot Professional MLB Betting

[ QUOTE ]
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i've given the AL a .6 run advantage on the games i've handicapped so far...

[/ QUOTE ]

Michael Murray has it a lot lower...
Forum: Sports Betting 06-14-2007, 07:16 PM
Replies: 287
Views: 1,420
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: TomG\'s Robot Professional MLB Betting

i've given the AL a .6 run advantage on the games i've handicapped so far but i was curious what kind of strength advantage tomg was giving the AL over the NL. I don't understand what you do with the...
Forum: Sports Betting 06-14-2007, 12:59 PM
Replies: 287
Views: 1,420
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: TomG\'s Robot Professional MLB Betting

TomG, I'm interested in learning how you are betting on interleague. I'm real bad at basic logic but are you assuming that both leagues are of equal strength? and when you multiply lets say the AL...
Forum: Sports Betting 06-06-2007, 11:39 AM
Replies: 287
Views: 1,420
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: TomG\'s Robot Professional MLB Betting

thanks rjp
Forum: Sports Betting 06-06-2007, 06:34 AM
Replies: 287
Views: 1,420
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: TomG\'s Robot Professional MLB Betting

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TOMG, quick question.. are you applying a Universal Home field advantage (i think murray says 16 cents) to all the games or are you making unique home field adjustments. I've...
Forum: Sports Betting 06-06-2007, 06:02 AM
Replies: 287
Views: 1,420
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: TomG\'s Robot Professional MLB Betting

TOMG, quick question.. are you applying a Universal Home field advantage (i think murray says 16 cents) to all the games or are you making unique home field adjustments. I've always been a little...
Forum: Sports Betting 06-06-2007, 03:42 AM
Replies: 287
Views: 1,420
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: TomG\'s Robot Professional MLB Betting

they all really do seem to converge with one another over the long term.. here's a couple examples

mike mussina (career)
XERA: 3.678
FIP: 3.687
DIPS: 3.672
QERA: 3.57
Actual: 3.67

pretty...
Forum: Sports Betting 06-05-2007, 06:46 PM
Replies: 287
Views: 1,420
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: TomG\'s Robot Professional MLB Betting

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basement, OPS is not well regarded, but mostly because as a single number it captures little about a hitter's performance.

The formula discussed here comes out of the Murray...
Forum: Sports Betting 06-04-2007, 07:25 PM
Replies: 287
Views: 1,420
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: TomG\'s Robot Professional MLB Betting

[ QUOTE ]
The amount of hits produced by batters vs. a pitcher depends hugely on the quality of his team's defense... Nick Swisher is going to convert more BPIP into outs than Bobby Abreu in Center...
Forum: Sports Betting 05-17-2007, 08:04 PM
Replies: 287
Views: 1,420
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: TomG\'s Robot Professional MLB Betting

good luck with this TOMG, I am real interested to see how this pans out. For the offensive ratings are you using the season to date performance.. and for the pitchers are you giving one overall XERA...
Forum: Sports Betting 05-16-2007, 05:45 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 54
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: Football Books...

[ QUOTE ]
The Miller book is superb. Worth more than the price. However, its better to learn from the book and apply your knowledge on other sports than american football.

It is by far the most...
Forum: Sports Betting 05-16-2007, 05:38 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 55
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: Betting Baseball 2007

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i have the 2006 version and I think the book is very good and has useful information. I don't love the way he makes the line for instance through using:
runs scored *...
Forum: Sports Betting 05-10-2007, 06:04 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 55
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: Betting Baseball 2007

i have the 2006 version and I think the book is very good and has useful information. I don't love the way he makes the line for instance through using:
runs scored * Pitchers runs allowed /...
Forum: Sports Betting 05-10-2007, 05:59 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 42
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: What\'s more important? (MLB)

I don't know much at all about statistics and how a player regresses but it is obvious that it will always occur. For the offenses i like to look at the season to date work, specifically home or...
Forum: Sports Betting 05-10-2007, 05:50 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 73
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: I was just reaidng this article....

Thremp, isn't kelly betting based on raising your bankroll efficiently? Say for instance we have two pointspread games and on one bet I put 7 dollars down and that bet wins, and on another 11/10...
Forum: Sports Betting 05-10-2007, 01:47 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 73
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: I was just reaidng this article....

yeah i did.. i made my own lines and used the kelly formula and varied my bet sizes accordingly.. So for instance let's say I have a 2,000 dollar bankroll and bet 1/10 kelly which i found was...
Forum: Sports Betting 05-10-2007, 12:26 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 73
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: I was just reaidng this article....

rjp, i visit your site a lot and am happy to see the kelly criterion calculator as I too mainly was a flat bettor and realized that in a sport where you can make realistic odds it is not smart to...
Forum: Sports Betting 05-09-2007, 12:16 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 66
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: Predicting Winners in MLB

what i've noticed to work quite well in baseball is through making offensive power ratings and dividing that rating by the overall team ERA for the starting pitcher as well as the bullpen. To make...
Forum: Sports Betting 05-09-2007, 11:32 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 73
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: I was just reaidng this article....

The article was written by JR Miller so it's must be "hooey"
Kelly is optimal for wagering however I have only had success with it in certain sports, most likely because I'm not making accurate odds...
Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy 02-03-2007, 02:10 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 129
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: Why is gambling considered \"bad\"?

i agree with daisydog and many of the opinions here. I guess one could argue that losing gamblers are contributing economically buy supporting an industry which employs many people.. however for...
Forum: Sports Betting 02-03-2007, 10:04 AM
Replies: 36
Views: 134
Posted By newb411breaker19
Re: Are you sharp or not? must read, courtesy TrixTrix

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There the reason for him to be a winner is that either he has access to information that the public does not and or can process available information better then the public.

[/ QUOTE ]...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 25

 
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