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Forum: Sports Betting 12-01-2007, 02:50 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 517
Posted By TooTallT
Re: how much is homefield advantage worth in the NHL?

[ QUOTE ]
the only real sport that the fans come into affect is college hoops and sometimes college football

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe he asked about how the fans affect the game. He...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-01-2007, 02:48 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 517
Posted By TooTallT
Re: how much is homefield advantage worth in the NHL?

[ QUOTE ]
I have no datamined evidence but from what I've observed over the last two years the lines are shaded for home teams by around 20 cents

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea what the right...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-30-2007, 01:47 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 401
Posted By TooTallT
Re: Survivor Football -- Week 13

Rams (with Bulger) I could see, even Denver. But Cleveland? The market has them pk right now against Arizona! That would be a horrible play, unless you think that line is off by about 4 pts. If...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-29-2007, 04:19 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 401
Posted By TooTallT
Re: Survivor Football -- Week 13

[ QUOTE ]
That's my pick as of now. I don't think I'll be able to find a good enough reason to change it.

[/ QUOTE ]

They are definitely more consistent than the Vikings... in that they may be...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-29-2007, 04:15 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 512
Posted By TooTallT
Re: Louisville v Rutgers Official Thread $$$$$

Rutgers ML here. Louisville won't have the ball long enough to put up enough points.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-29-2007, 01:27 PM
Replies: 51
Views: 412
Posted By TooTallT
Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

[ QUOTE ]
Instead of just twisting one comment to seem incorrect, why not just put thought behind it since I obviously have?


[/ QUOTE ]

The only question is where the lines for Miami...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-29-2007, 10:59 AM
Replies: 51
Views: 412
Posted By TooTallT
Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Why would anybody put money on the wrong side at a bad price?
Forum: Sports Betting 11-29-2007, 10:57 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 401
Posted By TooTallT
Re: Survivor Football -- Week 13

Vikes, Vikes, Vikes.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-29-2007, 05:29 AM
Replies: 63
Views: 411
Posted By TooTallT
Re: Nov 28th Paid Service Plays

http://www.akdemocrats.org/elton/Flipping_Coin.jpg
Forum: Sports Betting 11-26-2007, 12:23 PM
Replies: 214
Views: 1,129
Posted By TooTallT
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (PHI @ NE) ***

I'll take NEP under 17. Line should be about 20 in Balt IMO. They are much worse than the Eagles.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-21-2007, 12:04 AM
Replies: 200
Views: 2,209
Posted By TooTallT
Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System

Naj,

How do you grade these? I thought that you have to wait until 1 hour before tip to confirm the play... so Samford -2 really shouldn't be the graded line right? More like Sam -4.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-12-2007, 08:30 PM
Replies: 54
Views: 229
Posted By TooTallT
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/12/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (SF @ SEA)***

I don't have a freaking clue about this total, but I found o36.5 -104 so I bet it. Looks pretty good now.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-12-2007, 03:44 PM
Replies: 54
Views: 229
Posted By TooTallT
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/12/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (SF @ SEA)***

Big storm tonight apparently. That's why total is tanking. I've got SF +10 -105. GL Niners backers!
Forum: Sports Betting 11-12-2007, 03:39 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 164
Posted By TooTallT
Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters

[ QUOTE ]
In essence, if you want to bet Jacksonville +3 but shop around and can get them at +3.5, it will make a huge difference long term?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is impossible to win at...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-12-2007, 03:37 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 164
Posted By TooTallT
Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters

[ QUOTE ]
someone is betting seriously and only using B&M? is this 1991? do some casinos offer -105 or something special these days that I don't know about?


[/ QUOTE ]

B&M and locals are...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-12-2007, 01:52 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 365
Posted By TooTallT
Forum: Sports Betting 11-12-2007, 01:39 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 365
Posted By TooTallT
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/19/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (TEN @ DEN)***

Is Lendale White hurt? I saw him limping around against the Jags. If he's OK, then this line is the craziest so far.

I don't have Pinny, so I'll be looking at my outs (in order of preference)...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-12-2007, 03:06 AM
Replies: 45
Views: 176
Posted By TooTallT
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***

Weird that I feel extremely unlucky to lose a full-game bet that was over in the first half. I had SD team total u22.5.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-09-2007, 11:55 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 103
Posted By TooTallT
Re: Dr. Bob

I guess he was only 57% last year and moving the lines pretty large, so fading at the apex may have turned a profit. It was the two years before that where he had great records. Stats above refer...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-09-2007, 07:09 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 103
Posted By TooTallT
Re: Dr. Bob

[ QUOTE ]
Rarely +EV to go against him? A large chunk of the units I've made so far this year have come from fading Dr Bob.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rarely +EV to wear blue socks? A large chunk of the...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-08-2007, 07:38 PM
Replies: 68
Views: 251
Posted By TooTallT
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***

You need to look at big books that have lots of sharp and square players to really know what the market looks like. Just because one book moves from Det +1.5 to PK doesn't mean the whole market is...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-08-2007, 06:22 PM
Replies: 68
Views: 251
Posted By TooTallT
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***

The public is on Detroit (79% on Wagerline on Det +1). If there's no resistance to the public money flowing in on one side, the books (usually) move their lines to compensate. See CHI/OAK for...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-08-2007, 05:38 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 196
Posted By TooTallT
Re: Thursday Night NCAAF

u64 -105 here.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-08-2007, 05:34 PM
Replies: 68
Views: 251
Posted By TooTallT
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***

[ QUOTE ]
It opened at -1 at most places I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, everywhere that opened after the sharps pounded it.

Pinny:
11/04/2007 9:28PM: -1 -104 / +1 -104 Opener
11/05/2007...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-08-2007, 03:25 PM
Replies: 68
Views: 251
Posted By TooTallT
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***

Line STILL moving toward Arizona (-1 -113 now on Pinny) despite huge Lions public bias.
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