Forum: Internet Gambling
10-30-2007, 01:41 AM
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Replies: 3,365
Views: 98,874
Re: Person to person transfers.
I'm still trying to transfer about $250 from UB to FTP. Have traded before on this thread for a larger amount and I will send first. Please PM me if you have a reputation.
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Forum: Internet Gambling
10-19-2007, 03:03 PM
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Replies: 3,365
Views: 98,874
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Forum: Stoxpoker.com
10-17-2007, 09:38 AM
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Replies: 165
Views: 1,849
Re: Stoxtrader is \"In the Well\"
Hey Stox,
I am curious as to what you meant when you said that in videos you play a style that is good for videos but not necessarily the best.
Did you simply mean that in videos you try to...
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Forum: Internet Gambling
09-26-2007, 10:33 PM
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Replies: 3,365
Views: 98,874
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Forum: Internet Gambling
09-26-2007, 02:42 PM
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Replies: 3,365
Views: 98,874
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-17-2007, 12:04 AM
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Replies: 10
Views: 65
Re: Is The Pinny Lean Ever Wrong?
[ QUOTE ]
Without any additional information, do you bet the favorite at the square book?
[/ QUOTE ]
Have you been doing this profitably? Just taking the line at another book that is...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-16-2007, 07:26 PM
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Replies: 28
Views: 118
Re: Total Bases Props
I would not agree that handicapping these bets is very similar to handicapping the game (even though I do handicap games on my own). The thing is, it doesn't directly matter what you think the ERA...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-16-2007, 05:40 PM
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Replies: 28
Views: 118
Re: Total Bases Props
I think my projections come from something very similar to Pecota.
For tonight I like:
Cabrera -1/2 over Byrnes at +115
Wright +1/2 over Bay at -160
Kent -1/2 over Berkman at +130
Ordonez +1/2...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-16-2007, 03:22 PM
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Replies: 28
Views: 118
Re: Total Bases Props
As the nature of being predictions, I'm not going to pretend that they are perfect representations of what will happen. But no, I have not taken into account prediction error.
Actually, I don't...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-16-2007, 02:58 PM
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Replies: 28
Views: 118
Re: Total Bases Props
I think I am doing something very similar to what you are saying. Just for clarification, the definition of slugging is the average number of bases per at bat, though I am not directly using either...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-16-2007, 01:43 PM
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Replies: 28
Views: 118
Re: Total Bases Props
If you've seen this movie before or if you think these bets are stupid, then of course by all means don't bet on them. Maybe you are right, but I like my methodology and will at least see where this...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-15-2007, 07:00 PM
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Replies: 28
Views: 118
Re: Total Bases Props
I have not taken into account individual pitcher vs batter matchups. I suppose there is definitely an argument for doing so, but in my opinion this data would have to be heavily regressed towards...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-15-2007, 01:46 PM
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Replies: 28
Views: 118
Re: Total Bases Props
Yesterday: -.375u
Today
Wright +1/2 over Bay at -165
Zimmerman +1/2 over Rollins at -150
C.Jones pk over Bonds at -120 (3)
Fielder +1/2 over Pujols at -140 (2)
Lee pk over Griffey at -125...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-15-2007, 01:52 AM
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Replies: 23
Views: 122
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-14-2007, 08:13 PM
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Replies: 28
Views: 118
Re: Total Bases Props
Sorry, those are against Giles of San Diego and Swisher of Oakland.
Let me say a little more about these picks. They are based on several factors that I believe are all important in handicapping...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-14-2007, 07:50 PM
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Replies: 28
Views: 118
Total Bases Props
I got home late for tonight's games, but I see value in two for the after 7:30pm games tonight.
I have:
Holliday +1/2 at -160 at 63.5%
Konerko +1/2 at -155 at 62.0%
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-14-2007, 01:39 AM
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Replies: 226
Views: 690
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-13-2007, 08:00 PM
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Replies: 14
Views: 108
Re: Mortal Lock!!
[ QUOTE ]
I live in the Twin Cities and I can assure you that the Vikings, sans 1998, have ALWAYS played to the level of their competition. There is no need to analyze their schedule.
[/ QUOTE ]...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-10-2007, 06:03 PM
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Replies: 16
Views: 95
Re: Soccer - Correct Score > Winner?
If outcomes are heavily weighted towards 1-0 and 2-1, which seems very likely since these would be the most common margins of victory, then it may not be more profitable.
I don't know much about...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-09-2007, 06:03 PM
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Replies: 12
Views: 202
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-09-2007, 11:35 AM
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Replies: 14
Views: 70
Re: The Lottery
[ QUOTE ]
mega-lotteries are typically structured as a 30 year annuity...
...the "true present payout" (ie: lump sum) of the amount you will receive today is at best 45%ish of the announced...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-09-2007, 01:12 AM
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Replies: 14
Views: 70
Re: The Lottery
29.2 million tickets were bought for tonight's Powerball so the bet on NO was solidly +EV and even better - it was won.
I set the line at 525 for the Mega Millions on Friday, so no good bet there.
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-06-2007, 03:33 PM
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Replies: 17
Views: 93
Re: Barry Bonds Home Run Prop
I would say all of the field bets are bad.
Because of the uncertainty on how they might pay out on right-center or left-center it's hard to judge the probabilities. In addition, it's really hard...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-06-2007, 03:20 PM
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Replies: 17
Views: 93
Re: Barry Bonds Home Run Prop
I give Barry Bonds a (18.1/19.1)^4.16 = 80.0% chance to NOT hit a HR tonight. Very little value at -390 right now. I would probably wait to see if any SF fans push it lower.
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-06-2007, 02:56 PM
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Replies: 22
Views: 120
Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
I found what I think is an incredible Barry Bonds prop on Bodog.
Right now +700 can be found on Bodog on whether Barry Bonds will hit his HR on a 0-0 count. Historically, he has hit 121 of his...
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