Forum: Sports Betting
11-23-2007, 07:25 PM
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Replies: 69
Views: 863
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-23-2007, 07:13 PM
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Replies: 69
Views: 863
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-23-2007, 07:10 PM
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Replies: 69
Views: 863
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-21-2007, 07:44 PM
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Replies: 69
Views: 863
Re: NBA Week 4 Thread (11/19-11/25)
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Yes, this is a known phenomenon that most people consider. It has an effect. I do not have stat-work on it. Many simply knock off a couple points for it.
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thank you
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-21-2007, 07:16 PM
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Replies: 69
Views: 863
Re: NBA Week 4 Thread (11/19-11/25)
Anybody care to comment if they have tested/observed a decline in winning percentage/points scored/points allowed in the second game of back-to-back games? If there is a decline in performance - can...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-21-2007, 03:38 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 123
Re: Home advantage and capping.
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I disagree digdeep. I actually think the opposite is true more often then not.
Variance in play or inconsistent play will bring a team closer to mediocrity. It will make a good team...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-21-2007, 10:49 AM
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Replies: 69
Views: 863
Re: NBA Week 4 Thread (11/19-11/25)
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Willing to share any of the trends you see with the 2H plays?
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I don't play trends and don't use any mechanical systems for the NBA. Better to work on your...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-21-2007, 10:29 AM
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Replies: 11
Views: 123
Re: Home advantage and capping.
Great post Lori... I think one thing to consider is the variance of a team's play. Those teams with higher variance in their play deserve a bigger edge at home vs. on the road. I.e. PIT this year...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-21-2007, 09:23 AM
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Replies: 69
Views: 863
Re: NBA Week 4 Thread (11/19-11/25)
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llabb - would you share your record thus far this year in NBA. I'm amazed that the number of games you take ...
thx
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Yes, I make a ton of plays, as I am...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-21-2007, 01:40 AM
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Replies: 5
Views: 84
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-21-2007, 12:17 AM
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Replies: 69
Views: 863
Re: NBA Week 4 Thread (11/19-11/25)
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Lakers -1.5, -110
Lakers/Indiana Under 208, -110, 1.5u
Golden State -2, -110
Dallas -9, +108
Dallas/Toronto Over 176, -110, 1.5u
Denver -7, -110, 1.5u
1H Denver...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 11:18 PM
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Replies: 68
Views: 484
Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
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So you guys think GB should be favored by 13 points if this was in GB?
That's funny.
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I have no idea where you get that 13 pt figure - guessing...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 10:50 PM
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Replies: 68
Views: 484
Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
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If the Wash Pass Defense was 5th best in the NFL, teams would be awfully STOOOPID to do that, wouldnt they? Dont they pay these coaches a lot of money to be smarter than that?
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 10:48 PM
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Replies: 68
Views: 484
Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
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So you guys think GB should be favored by 13 points if this was in GB?
That's funny.
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I have no idea where you get that 13 pt figure - guessing its your sound logic,...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 10:04 PM
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Replies: 69
Views: 863
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 10:02 PM
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Replies: 47
Views: 451
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 08:10 PM
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Replies: 68
Views: 484
Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
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Okay so the line should be Green Bay -7 right?
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I think there is value in GB -3 / 3.5 .... -5/-6/-7 all seem like more appropriate lines.
Anybody else...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 05:30 PM
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Replies: 69
Views: 863
Re: NBA Week 4 Thread (11/19-11/25)
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Lakers -1.5, -110
Lakers/Indiana Under 208, -110, 1.5u
Golden State -2, -110
Dallas -9, +108
Dallas/Toronto Over 176, -110, 1.5u
Denver -7, -110, 1.5u
1H Denver -4, -115
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 05:09 PM
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Replies: 68
Views: 484
Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
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There, there, ladies, week 11 DVOA is out.
11 WAS PASS DVOA -5.1% RANK 9 RUSH DVOA -4.8% RANK 16
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Numbers speak for themselves with respect to WAS rush vs. pass DEF... ...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 04:20 PM
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Replies: 68
Views: 484
Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
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I forgot yards/game was the best indicator of a team's pass defense. Oh, Washington has the third most pass attempts against them of any team? Nah, we'll just leave...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 03:49 PM
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Replies: 68
Views: 484
Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
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I forgot yards/game was the best indicator of a team's pass defense. Oh, Washington has the third most pass attempts against them of any team? Nah, we'll just leave that part out because...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 03:39 PM
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Replies: 68
Views: 484
Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
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digdeep, you're not picking them to win. You seem to be ignoring this.
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I think GB is undervalued at -3. I would rather buy...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 03:30 PM
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Replies: 68
Views: 484
Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
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Look at the WAS game - WAS is much better vs. the run than the pass - but with a capable DEF they were able to make the adjustment and shut down GB.
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 03:26 PM
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Replies: 53
Views: 618
Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
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I personally feel that DET is extremely overrated - I would take GB + the points. However... a note of disclaimer - Favre has historically had a tough time in the DET dome...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 03:24 PM
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Replies: 68
Views: 484
Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
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Look at the WAS game - WAS is much better vs. the run than the pass - but with a capable DEF they were able to make the adjustment and shut down GB.
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This isn't...
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