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Forum: Politics 12-01-2007, 10:29 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 957
Posted By Jcrew
Re: Of Climate Models and Hurricane Predictions

I think Phil overestimates the "rigorness" of these reports.
Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy 12-01-2007, 10:22 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 239
Posted By Jcrew
Re: % of time winner knocks out most players?

Unless you make some simplifying assumptions (i.e. person knocking out a player still remains equal probability of winning to everyone remaining), you have to Monte Carlo this.
Forum: Politics 12-01-2007, 08:03 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 957
Posted By Jcrew
Re: Of Climate Models and Hurricane Predictions

[ QUOTE ]
These results indicate that the range of uncertainty in anthropogenic forcing of the past century is as large as the uncertainty in climate sensitivity and that much of forcing uncertainty...
Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy 11-30-2007, 11:38 AM
Replies: 52
Views: 1,117
Posted By Jcrew
Re: Mormons In Group One

[ QUOTE ]

You need to understand that there is a very real chance that some of these people are actually looking forward to judgement day! Mitt thinks Jesus will be in Missouri soon. Call it...
Forum: Business, Finance, and Investing 11-25-2007, 01:14 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 290
Posted By Jcrew
Re: Why Sklansky\'s idea should not work

So the compact version of the conjecture is that the few times a super investor errs on his valuation, the probability distribution of the valuation is biased towards the market valuation?

Edit:...
Forum: Business, Finance, and Investing 11-24-2007, 07:43 PM
Replies: 52
Views: 378
Posted By Jcrew
Re: Four Ways To Use My Ideas

[ QUOTE ]


OK, so the key point is that identifying current mispricings is nice, but being able to identify future mispricings is even better.



[/ QUOTE ]

So I think the key point David...
Forum: EDF 11-24-2007, 03:56 PM
Replies: 77
Views: 554
Posted By Jcrew
Re: Quick rock paper scissors question

Is it OK for cops to run through red lights just for the heck of it?
Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy 11-24-2007, 02:39 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 112
Posted By Jcrew
Re: Wiener Process

Thanks. Can you explain how you get from N(0,t) ~ sqrt(t) * N(0,1)
Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy 11-24-2007, 02:02 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 112
Posted By Jcrew
Wiener Process

So a Wiener process can be modeled by the following difference equation:

W(t) = W(t-1) + N(0,1)

where N(0,1) = normal distribution with mean 0 and unit variance 1.

Somewhere I saw someone...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-21-2007, 12:29 PM
Replies: 365
Views: 2,624
Posted By Jcrew
Re: Official NE Patriots gogogogo to the SB thread

[ QUOTE ]
The Patriots made their trade contingent on Moss restructuring his contract down. He had no choice but to do it, there was no market for him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually there was no...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-18-2007, 10:45 PM
Replies: 560
Views: 3,112
Posted By Jcrew
Re: ***OFFICIAL*** New England-Buffalo Thread

[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
Actions that constitute offensive pass interference include but are not limited to:

(a) Blocking downfield by an offensive player prior to the ball being touched.

(b)...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-18-2007, 10:35 PM
Replies: 560
Views: 3,112
Posted By Jcrew
Re: ***OFFICIAL*** New England-Buffalo Thread

[ QUOTE ]

The refs can't even say "he didn't extend his arms" because he ALWAYS does.

[/ QUOTE ]

He didn't fully extend his arms on his last one. Nearly all of the OPI people fuss about,...
Forum: Politics 11-15-2007, 01:26 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 177
Posted By Jcrew
Re: Warren Buffett, socialist?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The question is whether or not the estate tax should be increased to provide more opportunity(or the perception of more) to the lower factions of society.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could...
Forum: Politics 11-14-2007, 11:28 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 177
Posted By Jcrew
Re: Warren Buffett, socialist?

[ QUOTE ]
"Dynastic wealth, the enemy of a meritocracy, is on the rise. Equality of opportunity has been on the decline," Buffett said. "A progressive and meaningful estate tax is needed to curb...
Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy 11-12-2007, 12:00 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 165
Posted By Jcrew
Re: A More Realistic Fred And Ginger Problem

[ QUOTE ]
I don't believe anyone like Ginger exists. I have never met such a person or seen an exposition of someone's life who resembled Ginger. Every great creative mind I have come across or...
Forum: Business, Finance, and Investing 11-08-2007, 01:58 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 127
Posted By Jcrew
Export Company Brainstorming

So with this weak dollar and all, which companies and industries do you guys think would benefit from the anticipated increase in US exports.
Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy 11-07-2007, 10:17 PM
Replies: 65
Views: 656
Posted By Jcrew
Re: Quick question for pro life people.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pro choice because I don't consider the fetus (or a lower level tard, for that matter) to be human.


[/ QUOTE ]

Do you believe that there should be any consequences for the...
Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy 11-06-2007, 06:08 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 165
Posted By Jcrew
Re: A More Realistic Fred And Ginger Problem

This is related to a subject I've been thinking about for the past few days. Breaking down different aspects of intelligence. To me, it looks there are three broad disjoint categories:

1.) Short...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-04-2007, 09:46 PM
Replies: 1,392
Views: 6,733
Posted By Jcrew
Re: ***** Clash of the Titans, Week 9: NE @ Ind*****

Maybe vegas had a hand in the officiating with all the squares picking the pats.
Forum: Sporting Events 10-30-2007, 02:21 PM
Replies: 644
Views: 4,231
Posted By Jcrew
Re: Should the Pats be running up the score on everybody in garbage ti

Who else thinks that the Pats should go for 2 points after every TD? I would figure that in a spread formation that their chances are higher than 50%.
Forum: BBV4Life 10-26-2007, 05:21 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 112
Posted By Jcrew
Re: Robbed on the CTA bus

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone know where I can find a ipod for cheap?

[/ QUOTE ]

PM me. No headphones though.
Forum: EDF 10-23-2007, 10:00 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 225
Posted By Jcrew
Re: Getting involved in startup, equity negotation advice?

Bring up a spreadsheet and try to monetize as best as possible who is bringing what to the table and that should give a baseline of roughly what your equity should be. I would probably guess around...
Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy 10-19-2007, 10:52 AM
Replies: 230
Views: 1,180
Posted By Jcrew
Re: Nobel Prize scientist - Black people are dumb

Environment? (http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/19/james-watson-black-intelligence-and-new-research-by-fryer-and-levitt/)
Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy 10-19-2007, 10:42 AM
Replies: 230
Views: 1,180
Posted By Jcrew
Re: Nobel Prize scientist - Black people are dumb

[ QUOTE ]

You open a Pandora’s box of everything from utopia seekers to the puerile ideas of the Grand Wizards of the KKK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Couldn't people point out to the wizards that they...
Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy 10-16-2007, 06:08 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 90
Posted By Jcrew
Banach–Tarski paradox = Contradiction?

Why don't mathematicians consider the Banach–Tarski paradox a contradiction that disproves the validity of the axiom of choice?
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