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Search took 0.00 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: DcifrThs
Forum: Politics 08-20-2007, 01:08 PM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

Zygote,

Copernicus is tryiing to explain why gold has no inherent risk premium.

it is a very debateable issue. typically, risk premiums for commodities are more likely to exist when the...
Forum: Politics 08-20-2007, 12:20 PM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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All that link 'establishes" is that someone else besides mises likes to theorize all kinds of things that are theoretially possible but which data from the...
Forum: Politics 08-20-2007, 12:00 AM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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All that link 'establishes" is that someone else besides mises likes to theorize all kinds of things that are theoretially possible but which data from the real world shows...
Forum: Politics 08-18-2007, 03:22 PM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: The Federal Reserve: Love it or Hate it

Pvn,

Well my friend, better late than never /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Here are my responses to your post. They go basically point by point and ignore everything not germane (i.e. the...
Forum: Politics 08-18-2007, 02:55 PM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: The Federal Reserve: Love it or Hate it

Just to correct something i said:

Total return=Price change + Coupon + risk free rate

Excess return= Total return-risk free rate.

so the Excess return=price change + coupon. to get the...
Forum: Politics 08-18-2007, 05:34 AM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: The Federal Reserve: Love it or Hate it

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There seems to be a basic misunderstanding in this thread of what "risk" is in investment terms. Risk is volatility, not the more general notion of "safety of principal". The risk free...
Forum: Politics 08-17-2007, 06:09 PM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: The Federal Reserve: Love it or Hate it

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business cycles come from an inability to manage perfectly. when demand has been higher than previous periods, we order more (typically far more) on the assumption that the...
Forum: Politics 08-17-2007, 12:34 PM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

fair: here's my response xposted. last one of cross postings,

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Well if there is a definite trend towards more frequent and "aggressive" interventions from central banks, that...
Forum: Politics 08-17-2007, 10:46 AM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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(Cross post form EDGDF)

DcifrThs

It seems to me that the Austrains are asking you the wrong questions.

Assuming there is a "natural" fundamental market rate of...
Forum: Politics 08-17-2007, 10:30 AM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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a) i don't believe in strong EMH


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Okay so its possible to make long term profit investing.

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Forum: Politics 08-17-2007, 09:37 AM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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so lets say that everything i've said about absolutely everything is incorrect based on a proof you can provide...

...how much money are you making off your analysis of...
Forum: Politics 08-17-2007, 09:27 AM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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On that article posted I want a common misconcetion that the author states:

The basic idea behind EMH is that because there are so many investors out there hunting for good investment...
Forum: Politics 08-17-2007, 01:00 AM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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I also have no problem with you quoting anyone. Please show me something from anywhere that shows the money supply changes are not the major source of large scale...
Forum: Politics 08-17-2007, 12:49 AM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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[x] business cycles defined by amplitude between peak & trough production

[x] reduction in amplitude over time

Q.E.D?
Forum: Politics 08-16-2007, 07:44 PM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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I also have no problem with you quoting anyone. Please show me something from anywhere that shows the money supply changes are not the major source of large scale business cycles or error...
Forum: Politics 08-16-2007, 06:52 PM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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this statement shows your inability or unwillingness to understand the issue. i've explained it as best i can. you have to cross that last inch of undestanding yourself.
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Forum: Politics 08-16-2007, 05:28 PM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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we don't live in mises's world. we live in this world with a centrally managed economy and business cycles and that world isn't likely to change in your lifetime or mine.

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Forum: Politics 08-16-2007, 05:11 PM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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we both know what time premium is. that istn't he question. you seem to think that you are only compenstaed for default risk+"risk free" appreciation+ infaltion or some...
Forum: Politics 08-16-2007, 04:17 PM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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no, i mean if you only got compensated exactly what you would given default, inflation and the riskfree rate, you'd only hold the risk free asset. period. the excess return you...
Forum: Politics 08-16-2007, 03:50 PM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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it would be speculating you are correct if the investment in stocks ONLY if the "risk premium" i've been talking about exactly compensated you for that risk of default over...
Forum: Politics 08-16-2007, 01:31 PM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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that is the minimum return you'd need to put your money somewhere. that is the true "time premium." above that, you get a risk premium for giving money to riskier companies....
Forum: Politics 08-16-2007, 12:43 PM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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Also "risk premium" as you call it is not a sign that the asset appreciates over time. Its a sign that the "risk premium" is worth a certain amount now relative to the cash put down. This...
Forum: Politics 08-16-2007, 12:22 PM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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i guess i just define speculating very differently than you do.

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i agree with this.

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to you, investing passively in an index=speculating. in your...
Forum: Politics 08-16-2007, 12:10 PM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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on average, inflation is less than the rate the bank gives on savings, otherwise, you'd hold your money in your hand.

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This doesn't follow-
Hold my money...
Forum: Politics 08-16-2007, 11:54 AM
Replies: 240
Views: 871
Posted By DcifrThs
Re: maybe this can help...

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do you think that owning stocks is automatically speculating?

do you think that holding cash is automatically speculating?

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yes i do. I think you're...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 69
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