Forum: Sports Betting
11-27-2007, 10:36 PM
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Replies: 14
Views: 188
Re: Recommendation on topic of next article
Most likely not because I'd have to be more concerned with a risk of ruin or a bad losing streak crippling the bankroll. I would need much more time to analyze and think about the issue before being...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-27-2007, 08:24 PM
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Replies: 14
Views: 188
Re: Recommendation on topic of next article
[ QUOTE ]
i would like to hear king yao's take on bet sizing
(ie how often he flat bets, how often he does multi-unit plays, how he weights things.... weighting when the numbers are clear is one...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-27-2007, 08:18 PM
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Replies: 14
Views: 188
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-27-2007, 08:18 PM
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Replies: 14
Views: 188
Re: Recommendation on topic of next article
Thanks for the comments guys. It reminds me of my goal with these articles - to write something general that can be applied in other situations, but with specific examples. Using a current...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-27-2007, 12:47 PM
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Replies: 14
Views: 188
Recommendation on topic of next article
My next article on sports betting for the Two Plus Two Magazine is due tomorrow. I have a few topics in mind, but wanted to get an idea of what some people think as far as timing. One topic will be...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-21-2007, 09:38 PM
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Replies: 10
Views: 100
Re: Math questions
I suggest reading this post: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=12196755&page=
which is a post concerning (or correcting) the article I wrote on NFL power ratings:...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-21-2007, 09:34 PM
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Replies: 4
Views: 58
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 02:09 PM
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Replies: 49
Views: 274
Re: help me become a professional
In the same tone as what trixtrix mentioned in his post in this thread, I'll say that its tough finding a coach in sports betting that is worthwhile. Pros aren't going to be happy to give someone...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 02:03 PM
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Replies: 49
Views: 274
Re: help me become a professional
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another factor that was mentioned in yao's book in terms of teaching sportsbetting knowledge and have not been mentioned yet in this thread is that, sportsbetting is different than poker...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-12-2007, 04:14 AM
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Replies: 10
Views: 67
Re: SuperBowl NFC to win+15.5 (-110)
I think AFC -15.5 is a fair line. No edge either way.
If the Patriots make it, the line could be in the 20s if a surprise NFC team gets there. Pats vs Cowboys could be Pats -13/-14 range. A lot...
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Forum: Sports Betting
10-06-2007, 11:46 AM
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Replies: 14
Views: 78
Re: Dr. Bob -- sharpshooter fallacy?
I don't suscribe to Dr. Bob's plays, so I have little experience reading his write-ups or seeing his reasonings. But of the few I have read, he seems to cross-reference his data-mining with his...
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Forum: Sports Betting
10-02-2007, 12:45 AM
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Replies: 41
Views: 594
Re: on ROI
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Yeah, you're very wrong on this and so is your book. You can bet line movements for this and higher.
[/ QUOTE ]
Please give me an example.
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Forum: Sports Betting
10-01-2007, 09:47 PM
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Replies: 41
Views: 594
Re: on ROI
let me rephrase because I think we are thinking different things, and its a confusion due to semantics. When I say 3% ROI, I mean over the total amount of money bet. The total money bet is churned...
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Forum: Sports Betting
10-01-2007, 08:19 PM
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Replies: 41
Views: 594
on ROI
3% ROI is on the high end IMO.
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Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine
10-01-2007, 07:19 PM
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Replies: 5
Views: 59
Re: Discuss: A Las Vegas Sports Shopping Trip
Lots of winners. I didn't want to make it look like I wrote the article because there were so many winners. I had planned to write this article as I was in Vegas and jotted down a few notes as I...
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Forum: Sports Betting
10-01-2007, 04:37 PM
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Replies: 41
Views: 594
Re: Full time sports betting?
There is some truth to what you say if you are only a handicapper and only betting sides and/or totals that you handicapped. But there are a lot more other things going on. In each of the last...
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Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine
10-01-2007, 03:36 PM
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Replies: 5
Views: 59
Re: Discuss: A Las Vegas Sports Shopping Trip
I'm not 100% sure, but I think there were two reasons:
1. he didn't like taking the bet, and probably thought they hung a bad line when he heard it. but initially he didn't do anything about it....
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Forum: Sports Betting
10-01-2007, 03:32 PM
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Replies: 41
Views: 594
Re: Full time sports betting?
If he is smart enough, skillful at his craft, hard-working, curious, persistent and has self-control ... then it really isn't that difficult to do well. While I think many people have these qualities...
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Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine
09-26-2007, 02:16 PM
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Replies: 1
Views: 83
Re: Power Rankings - obvious error
I just saw this...nice post. I agree with you.
The simple addition/subtraction method is nice and easy if you have to do it on the fly (i.e., in a Las Vegas sportsbook), but clearly your method...
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Forum: Sports Betting
09-07-2007, 10:30 AM
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Replies: 6
Views: 177
NFL season-long prop
I posted this in my blog a couple days ago. Lines still look available.
NFL Interceptions prop bets
I found some year-long prop bets in the NFL that I think have edge. The props were on the...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-20-2007, 01:25 AM
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Replies: 10
Views: 72
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-18-2007, 08:48 PM
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Replies: 26
Views: 108
Re: 6 pt NFLX Teasers
I forgot to add: 5 dimes deals dual lines (at least they did the last couple of seasons) in straight plays and teaser plays. And they know which way to skew the teaser line to screw the player.
...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-18-2007, 08:46 PM
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Replies: 26
Views: 108
Re: 6 pt NFLX Teasers
[ QUOTE ]
I noticed that most online books are trying to protect themselves from these wong teasers again this year by keeping as many games as possible on the 3 with -/+ juice.
[/ QUOTE ]
...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-07-2007, 11:36 PM
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Replies: 23
Views: 293
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Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine
08-03-2007, 09:20 AM
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Replies: 5
Views: 44
One link doesn\'t work
The link in the middle of the page "Be sure to read the Two Plus Two Internet Magazine" doesn't have the list of articles. The other link on the left margin does. I don't know if this is just my...
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