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Search took 0.03 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: TomG
Forum: Sports Betting 11-30-2007, 04:32 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 604
Posted By TomG
Re: how much is homefield advantage worth in the NHL?

During the 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 seasons the home team won 56.2% of the time.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-25-2007, 05:51 PM
Replies: 180
Views: 1,472
Posted By TomG
Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===

omg u should hedge!
Forum: Sports Betting 11-20-2007, 05:44 PM
Replies: 52
Views: 441
Posted By TomG
Re: NHL Sports Betting

[ QUOTE ]
Boston Bruins +135
Vancouver Canucks -145
Colorado Avalanche +115

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you'd benefit from some line shopping. Those picks are widely available at much better prices.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-14-2007, 04:39 PM
Replies: 33
Views: 210
Posted By TomG
Re: Anyone want to re-open The Well?

Actually my #1 choice would definitely be Ganchrow. You'd likely have to send him a PM first to see if he would be willing.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-13-2007, 12:11 PM
Replies: 33
Views: 210
Posted By TomG
Re: Anyone want to re-open The Well?

I say throw rjp down the well!
Forum: Sports Betting 11-02-2007, 03:51 PM
Replies: 41
Views: 588
Posted By TomG
Re: on ROI

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, you're very wrong on this and so is your book. You can bet line movements for this and higher.



[/ QUOTE ]

Please give me an example.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-29-2007, 07:35 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 128
Posted By TomG
Re: OK, I need to settle a bet. Answer truthfully and you can make jok

While doing more research on the topic I came upon THIS.

http://boifromtroy.com/wp-content/brady_quinn_shirtless_cellphone.jpg

DAMN.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-29-2007, 04:38 PM
Replies: 156
Views: 849
Posted By TomG
Re: Predict the Opening Line: Pats in Indy

OMG... New England vs. Indy...

I haven't been this torn over who to root for since Hulk Hogan vs. The Ultimate Warrior at Wrestlemania 6!!!
Forum: Internet Bonuses 10-27-2007, 10:05 AM
Replies: 46
Views: 484
Posted By TomG
Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEE, FT Bonus at last

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you for playing on Full Tilt Poker. As a token of our appreciation, we have credited your Full Tilt bonus account with $150.

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course, I have maintained a zero...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-19-2007, 11:42 AM
Replies: 373
Views: 3,140
Posted By TomG
Re: *** Official August -- October Chatter Thread ***

Head over to sportsinsights.com if you have not already. They specialize in the type of wagers you describe.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-15-2007, 12:52 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 67
Posted By TomG
Re: NE 16-0 prop anywhere?

I'm looking for a book that will accept my "Will New England go 16-0 against the spread this year?" parlay. Looking for +95000 or better please.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-12-2007, 10:26 PM
Replies: 126
Views: 1,440
Posted By TomG
Re: What happened to the arb threads?

MSN invite only chat room then? Without leechers, I really think we could all benefit from something like this.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-12-2007, 05:18 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 812
Posted By TomG
Re: NFL undefeated season prop

Considering both Dallas and Indianapolis play New England, I like this even more.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-12-2007, 01:25 PM
Replies: 126
Views: 1,440
Posted By TomG
Re: What happened to the arb threads?

It depends on the book. Some books move their lines aggressively so that one max bet will eliminate the opportunity. Other books will continue to hang stale lines even after several max bets. ...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-12-2007, 12:44 PM
Replies: 126
Views: 1,440
Posted By TomG
Re: What happened to the arb threads?

Would anyone be interested in a chat room on IRC to share arbs? I know there are a large group of voracious line hunters on this forum (myself included). I'd be willing to share my daily finds if...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-12-2007, 12:13 PM
Replies: 107
Views: 588
Posted By TomG
Re: Huge Value On THE TRIBE

See the problem with betting full Kelly is its volatility. Well, ladies and gentleman, I have the solution to that. Let me introduce the "Kelly Martingale." The martingale controls variance while...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-11-2007, 09:50 PM
Replies: 373
Views: 3,140
Posted By TomG
Re: *** Official August - October Chatter Thread ***

Thremp,

It is a balance.

http://home.comcast.net/~johnpling/pics/ying_pozz.GIF
Forum: Sports Betting 10-10-2007, 07:27 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 267
Posted By TomG
Re: Nobel for Literature

FWIW, Murakami is my absolute favorite author.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-10-2007, 06:50 PM
Replies: 126
Views: 1,440
Posted By TomG
Re: What happened to the arb threads?

Thanks Utah. It was at KC +3.0 -105 yesterday. But I didn't bet it because I'm always unsure if I should take the arb now or wait until game day for an even bigger arb. When it comes to the NFL at...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-10-2007, 04:59 PM
Replies: 126
Views: 1,440
Posted By TomG
Re: What happened to the arb threads?

If you do find any particularly juicy ones, please post them. Just bump the arb thread. I know I would appreciate it.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-09-2007, 06:50 PM
Replies: 373
Views: 3,140
Posted By TomG
Re: *** Official August - October Chatter Thread ***

There are no MLB or football games tonight. The NBA hasn't started yet. And only one game in the NHL tonight. What am I supposed to bet on?! /images/graemlins/frown.gif
Forum: Sports Betting 10-04-2007, 09:03 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 244
Posted By TomG
Re: Kelly Betting Question

Thanks Ganchrow. I blame rjp for tricking me this whole time. Glad you set him straight. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

PS, please post here more often.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-04-2007, 06:07 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 244
Posted By TomG
Re: Kelly Betting Question

[ QUOTE ]
Tom,

Isn't -156/+156 the market value?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, use -156/+156 as the no-vig line if the market line is -161/+151.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-04-2007, 04:19 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 244
Posted By TomG
Re: Kelly Betting Question

[ QUOTE ]
Neither; use the market value to remove bettor biases.

[/ QUOTE ]
Forum: Sports Betting 10-04-2007, 03:16 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 108
Posted By TomG
Re: Another Math Question (NHL Grand Salami)

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thremp,

The Poisson distribution can be derived as a limiting case of the binomial distribution.

[/ QUOTE ]

Engrish. I scammed my way out of my stats classes for my...
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