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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-14-2007, 07:14 PM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you dont think every site would keep a record of who is watching the tables?

[/ QUOTE ]

again, WHY? I'm trying to lead you into a conclusion here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-14-2007, 05:55 PM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if AP does not announce that some people's email addresses have inadvertantly been divulged, there may be some action available for a lawsuit. Failure to notify could be criminal. ...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-14-2007, 05:30 PM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

You folks apparently have the email address of a number of high stakes players who played that tournament and were cheated.

How about sending them an email to let them know they were cheated?
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-14-2007, 02:25 AM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

it really doesn't matter whether Absolute were criminally culpable, or just criminally reckless
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-13-2007, 09:45 PM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

[ QUOTE ]
so how did you guys get a hold of this?

[/ QUOTE ]

From http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=12489681

[ QUOTE ]
they gave away this HH just a few days...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-13-2007, 09:24 PM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

[ QUOTE ]
ummm no, this is the HH for the ENTIRE tournament for EVERYONES HH

[/ QUOTE ]

uh.

they have the hole cards of every player?
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-13-2007, 09:07 PM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

[ QUOTE ]
Josem: do u have the file they're talking about?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, I don't.

[ QUOTE ]
u have to get it, or at least post the entire tourney HH on www.absolutepokercheats.com...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-13-2007, 09:03 PM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

This is so exciting.


[ QUOTE ]
Waco / Junglen: Can you explain just what the deal is with the "scrambled" file you have? Is it actually encrypted somehow? Or just kind of like gibberish-y,...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-10-2007, 03:51 AM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

OK.

I've just read the wikipedia entry on standard deviation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation), and am more convinced than ever before that flight2q has no idea what a standard...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-10-2007, 02:54 AM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

[ QUOTE ]
Guess Holdem Manager doesn't report S.D. yet. That blue dot loses close to 100 buyins in 2783 hands. Not easy to do, especially with 22% VPIP.

[/ QUOTE ]

That "blue dot" lost...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-10-2007, 01:00 AM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

[ QUOTE ]
How many hands did the blue dot in the lower left corner play? (Over 800 hands apparently, since not in the second plot.)

[/ QUOTE ]
2,783 hands.

[ QUOTE ]
What were the blue...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-09-2007, 09:32 PM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

[ QUOTE ]
I honestly expected the revised graph to have more deviaton, at least in a few of the more extreme sets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol - the results cover around 350bb/100 divergence in win rates,...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-09-2007, 07:58 PM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

[ QUOTE ]
yeah that's interesting. try and get a lot more players with vpip >50% over around 500 hands in your database, like someone said earlier. i think the only problem with these stats is that...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-09-2007, 07:40 PM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

BTW, that is 2067 data points in blue.
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-09-2007, 07:37 PM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

OK - I see what you're asking now.

I had thought I was asked for the stats of only players who have under 500 hands.


Below is a graph of VPIP vs BB/100 for players who have played 500-800...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-09-2007, 06:33 PM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Narrowing that database to players who have 500 hands or more, over 5,000 players remained.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does it look like if you include only players with <500...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-09-2007, 05:43 PM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

[ QUOTE ]
Alright, this is BBV! Who wants to confess being the guy in the bottom left?

[/ QUOTE ]

that player in the far-bottom left is a stars player.

given his result is also so far...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-08-2007, 10:01 AM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

even if some of the hands are duplicated, while the data would not be perfect, I don't think there's likely to be any inherent bias created.

losing hands are just as likely to be duplicated as...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-08-2007, 09:47 AM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

the PT screenshots in the second post in this thread give these figures for NL:


hands vpip BB/100
103 86.41 311.36
138 96.38 470.37
193 93.78 468.96
8 87.5 821.56
28 92.86 1098.48...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-08-2007, 09:33 AM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

[ QUOTE ]
Josem,

That's a nice pic, but I'm unclear on why you narrowed it to 500+ hand players. The cheating data we have was over 193 hands, correct? Why not take samples in the 200-250 hand or...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-08-2007, 09:19 AM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

[ QUOTE ]
Solid Josem.

I do have one question to clarify what we are seeing. Did you come across or plot any of the suspected accounts sessions that came after the update but were not included...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-08-2007, 06:55 AM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

btw, i've plotting the accused in red. i don't have access to the full data on the accused, so that is my estimation.
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 10-08-2007, 06:54 AM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

Folks,

Using Hold'em Manager, my own multi-million hand database, and hand histories generously contributed from forum members, I've graphed a chart comparing VPIP and BB/100.

Narrowing that...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 09-30-2007, 04:00 AM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

[ QUOTE ]
Yeh, but are these hundreds of posts based on more data than this small sample?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 09-30-2007, 02:27 AM
Replies: 382
Views: 1,873
Posted By Josem
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

[ QUOTE ]
Youre retarded enough to draw conclusions that hes cheating from a 200 hand database?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this for real?

You read through hundreds of posts, you comment on *one* post...
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