Forum: Probability
11-22-2007, 09:32 AM
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Replies: 35
Views: 304
Re: Standard Deviation Question
For any random variable X, E[X] is only defined when E[|X|] is finite. So in this case, E[Z_j] is undefined. It is similar to to the fact that, in elementary calculus, the (improper) integral from -1...
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Forum: Probability
11-22-2007, 09:09 AM
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Replies: 35
Views: 304
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Forum: Probability
11-22-2007, 08:41 AM
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Replies: 12
Views: 366
Re: A Few Random Walk Questions
You are measuring one stochastic process in terms of another, which tends to complicate things. It may be clearer if you measure both USD and EUR in terms of some fixed quantity, say the 2000 USD....
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
11-11-2007, 08:50 AM
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Replies: 5
Views: 49
Re: Math: Need help regarding the Kelly criterion
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Thanks for all the work you have done, jason1990, but the math is too complicated for me. So I wondered if you could show how a neanderthal like me should go about calculating how big my...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
11-10-2007, 08:56 PM
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Replies: 5
Views: 49
Re: Math: Need help regarding the Kelly criterion
When you take money out to pay bills, do you generally take out the same dollar amount each unit of time, or do you take out the same percentage of your bankroll each time? If it is the latter, then...
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Forum: Probability
11-10-2007, 03:36 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 101
Re: Infinite bankroll paradox
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just like in a poker game you don't compare your current hand with past or future ones to get the EV of different actions. Rather, you *simulate* the exact hand a large number of times and...
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Forum: Probability
11-09-2007, 08:34 AM
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Replies: 9
Views: 101
Re: Infinite bankroll paradox
Everybody wants EV. Play a +EV game, and earn "Sklansky bucks." Got a decision to make? Turn off your brain and pick the one with the highest EV. EV, EV, EV. It is all about EV.
Really, EV is just...
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Forum: Probability
11-02-2007, 07:08 AM
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Replies: 8
Views: 60
Re: How likely is this to happen?
If 20 buy-ins is 1000 PTBB, then it appears you have used the formula correctly.
Here are some comments on the validity of the formula. It is based on a Brownian motion model. Brownian motion is...
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Forum: Probability
11-01-2007, 04:23 PM
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Replies: 23
Views: 258
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
10-31-2007, 11:00 PM
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Replies: 8
Views: 57
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Forum: Probability
10-14-2007, 07:55 AM
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Replies: 13
Views: 83
Re: LLN Question (FGators Question)
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It was a misunderstanding in the first place, and I still don't think any definitions are wrong. From what I understand from the Gambler's ruin page, it didn't say that casinos would come...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
10-10-2007, 07:12 AM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,572
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.
Well, that kind of SD is obviously not sustainable, for cheaters and honest players alike. If your calculation is correct, it simply suggests that the sample size is too small for an accurate measure...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
10-10-2007, 06:24 AM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,572
Re: Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.
Poker Tracker does not calculate standard deviation correctly. It uses only the results of each session, and not the results of each hand. This has two effects. The major effect is that the SD it...
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Forum: High Stakes Limit
09-30-2007, 09:14 AM
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Replies: 5
Views: 66
Re: Probability model for AP cheating
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people who dont know poker well enough to just look at the series of hand histories and KNOW what they entail will find this no more compelling than a nub-tard blurting out percentages of...
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Forum: High Stakes Limit
09-29-2007, 09:32 AM
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Replies: 5
Views: 66
Re: Probability model for AP cheating
Thanks for the input on N. Unfortunately, without p_f and p_c, it is not very useful. So far, no one has contacted me about quantifying their reasoning.
Let me expand a little on what is needed....
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Forum: High Stakes Limit
09-28-2007, 08:03 AM
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Replies: 5
Views: 66
Probability model for AP cheating
This post is addressed to any of the high-stakes players that are convinced cheating took place on AP. Would any of you be interested in trying to transform your thought process which leads from the...
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Forum: Probability
09-25-2007, 08:57 AM
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Replies: 13
Views: 87
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
09-24-2007, 10:48 PM
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Replies: 10
Views: 68
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
09-20-2007, 10:01 PM
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Replies: 61
Views: 255
Re: Its Hard to Decipher....
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if you want to advocate religion in the course of debating topics relevant to science, math, or philosophy, that's fine.
[/ QUOTE ]
Wow, I completely forgot that this was Science,...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-18-2007, 02:51 PM
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Replies: 168
Views: 808
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
09-17-2007, 08:13 AM
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Replies: 36
Views: 184
Re: SOLD!
Your original posts are very clear. You said,
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The theory ... has been proclaimed extremely farfetched ... the proclaimers are COMPLETE MORONS.
[/ QUOTE ]
You did not say that those...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
09-16-2007, 09:23 AM
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Replies: 36
Views: 184
Re: SOLD!
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It seems what you're getting at is that even experts in a particular field either forget or don't know how to apply proper math to form a given likelihood or conclusion. As a result, they...
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Forum: Probability
09-11-2007, 06:54 AM
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Replies: 9
Views: 73
Re: functions of uncountably many variables
Consider the vector v = (3,1,7,9). Normally, we use subscript notation to denote its components:
v_1 = 3
v_2 = 1
v_3 = 7
v_4 = 9
But sometimes we use parentheses instead:
v(1) = 3
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
09-05-2007, 08:02 AM
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Replies: 6
Views: 50
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Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine
09-03-2007, 12:01 PM
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Replies: 38
Views: 213
Re: Poker is Good for You
There seem to be several negative reactions to this article throughout the forums. It may be that those who react positively are less likely to comment. So let me post my thoughts in an attempt to...
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