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Forum: Probability 11-30-2007, 11:48 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 59
Posted By rufus
Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14

[ QUOTE ]
it doesn't even lower the variance that much.

[/ QUOTE ]

As the number of times things are run increases, the replacement/no replacement issue becomes a bit more significant. ...
Forum: Probability 11-30-2007, 11:37 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 41
Posted By rufus
Re: probability of n ties in a race to three (roshambo)

[ QUOTE ]
thanks, sometimes I think phzon forgets that he isn't talking to grad students. Is there an easy way to see this? Link to derivation...

phzon...when you look at problems like this are...
Forum: Probability 11-27-2007, 05:41 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 22
Posted By rufus
Re: roulette

You might want to look at a site like:
http://www.gamingfloor.biz/forum/
which is (apparently) frequented by people who are in the business.

Another good thing to look at would be the Kelly...
Forum: Probability 11-27-2007, 05:00 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 31
Posted By rufus
Re: probability of over-cards

There are 50 unknown cards, so the number of possible flops is
50 choose 3 = (50*49*48)/(3*2*1)
If you're holding 88o there are 24 overcards (A-9 * 4) so there are
(24 choose 0) * (26 choose 3) =...
Forum: Poker Theory 11-27-2007, 11:23 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 9
Posted By rufus
Re: Game theory and bluffing question

[ QUOTE ]

In general, you want the ratio between your bluffs and your legitimate bets to be about the same as the ratio between 1 bet and the pot size. This is so that your opponent can not...
Forum: Probability 11-27-2007, 11:11 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 12
Posted By rufus
Re: Staked players in a game with the staker

Basically, unless there's some sort of collusive effect between the two players, the player who's doing the staking is a bit silly for playing against a player that he's also staking. Any pot where...
Forum: Poker Theory 11-15-2007, 06:37 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 13
Posted By rufus
Re: Bluffing the Flush

There are two aspects to a tactic like this:
Exploiting the psychology of a flush board.
The generic necessity of bluffing.

The tactic of semi-bluff to bluff on draw hands has merit in general. ...
Forum: Poker Theory 11-15-2007, 06:23 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 19
Posted By rufus
Re: Need help with game theory and bluffing.

[ QUOTE ]
Is it possible then to learn to play the same way as the bot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably not. Humans are not very good at randomizing their play. (Feel free to try to break even against...
Forum: Probability 11-15-2007, 06:20 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 10
Posted By rufus
Re: Seating Arrangement Problem

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I'm pretty certain that I can't achieve fairness both in relation to the button and in relation to the other players. I figure the latter is more important, since position in...
Forum: Probability 11-13-2007, 10:04 AM
Replies: 27
Views: 182
Posted By rufus
Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure this has been discussed here before, but the dynamic that makes the game more interesting is not pure EV, but how the value of money changes relative to how much you have.

[/...
Forum: Probability 11-12-2007, 03:58 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 182
Posted By rufus
Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?

[ QUOTE ]

I must not understand something here.. can you explain?

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically, people really only feel the pressure to deal when there are one (or maybe two) large amounts and a...
Forum: Probability 11-12-2007, 12:19 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 182
Posted By rufus
Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?

I don't know how the deal offers are structured, and haven't seen any good sources on it. (And don't have sufficient masochism or patience to watch the show to do appropriate research.)

However,...
Forum: Poker Theory 11-12-2007, 02:47 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 18
Posted By rufus
Re: One Card Poker

Is there a limit to the number of raises?
Forum: Probability 11-12-2007, 02:17 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 8
Posted By rufus
Re: Chance of nuts beating second nuts with same ranks, suits?

[ QUOTE ]

Odds of me calculating the odds of it at being nuts vs second nuts: 0

[/ QUOTE ]

It's actually pretty easy. For suit to matter it's got to involve a flush. For the...
Forum: Probability 11-11-2007, 10:49 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 182
Posted By rufus
Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?

[ QUOTE ]

What is the correct way to decide whether to accept the bankers offer?
...
Is this correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's unclear what the banker's behavior is, or whithat the actual value...
Forum: Probability 11-11-2007, 10:35 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 8
Posted By rufus
Re: Chance of nuts beating second nuts with same ranks, suits?

The chance is approximately:
680304/2781381002400
Forum: Probability 11-11-2007, 10:20 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 16
Posted By rufus
Re: Geometric Series

[ QUOTE ]
I realize geometric series isn't exactly probability, but attracts the mathematically-inclined posters, so here goes. I also posted in the SMP forum.

I need to show that:

2*sum[ ((...
Forum: Poker Theory 11-10-2007, 11:54 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 7
Posted By rufus
Re: Proof of Fundamental Theorem of Poker?

"Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have...
Forum: Probability 11-08-2007, 02:01 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 12
Posted By rufus
Re: Plane crash

[ QUOTE ]
Im sorry, Im confused. Suppose the risk of any plane crashing is 1/5. You know that Joe will take 7 flights next year. What is the probability that Joe will die next year?

[/ QUOTE...
Forum: Probability 11-08-2007, 01:55 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 13
Posted By rufus
Re: How often are my KK\'s up against AA Preflop?

The chance that your opponent (heads up) has AA when you already have KK is 6 in 1225 -- roughly 1 in 204. If you're playing ring games you can reasonably approximate the likelihood that any of...
Forum: Probability 11-06-2007, 05:33 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 12
Posted By rufus
Re: BB/100 variations question !

[ QUOTE ]
Hrm, for some reason I thought I read he was playing limit holdem. If it's NLHE then yeah, more hands are definitely needed.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I recall correctly, the variance for limit...
Forum: Probability 11-03-2007, 12:33 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 20
Posted By rufus
Re: A tough variance problem (at least for me)

[ QUOTE ]
Ah well. I told you all I was over my head here, and the easiest way to gain understanding is through massive bouts of stupidity, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if it's the easiest,...
Forum: Poker Theory 11-01-2007, 02:11 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 10
Posted By rufus
Re: inverted blinds, why not?

The BB and the SB are clearly the furthest players from the dealer and already at the biggest disadvantage. I suppose you could play with a SB-only arrangement of some kind, with dead-money blinds,...
Forum: Probability 11-01-2007, 02:04 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 20
Posted By rufus
Re: A tough variance problem (at least for me)

For small runs like 1000 hands, it's probably best to have a computer just grind it out. As the number of hands gets large, risk of ruin models are probably a good approximation.
Forum: Probability 10-31-2007, 10:43 AM
Replies: 27
Views: 16
Posted By rufus
Re: Why don\'t coaches understand fundamental math?

[ QUOTE ]
aggie i understand and agree, but i will respond "hello risk aversion."

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think that's an accurate description. Looking at the analysis there are plenty of...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 250

 
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