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Forum: Sporting Events

08-11-2007, 04:40 PM

Replies: 17

Pitching Probabilities

Posted By prohornblower

Re: Pitching Probabilities

It has nothing to do with my sports betting. I don't even bet on sports. So don't imply that I'm out to "hit the lotto". Besides, I have gotten the type of responses I was looking for in here...

Forum: Sporting Events

08-11-2007, 02:44 PM

Replies: 17

Pitching Probabilities

Posted By prohornblower

Re: Pitching Probabilities

Cool, thanks for the info. Those numbers look almost in-line with what I'd begun to suspect. This will definitely help in a study I'm doing. If I can do it cleanly enough, I'll post it in this...

Forum: Sporting Events

08-11-2007, 11:39 AM

Replies: 17

Pitching Probabilities

Posted By prohornblower

Re: Pitching Probabilities

Those are some good thoughts. Do you think it effects long-term longevity (career-length), or just in-season longevity (burnt out come playoff time)?

Also, I probably am overestimating the...

Forum: Sporting Events

08-10-2007, 09:45 PM

Replies: 17

Pitching Probabilities

Posted By prohornblower

Re: Pitching Probabilities

The best I can find (among mlb.com, yahoo.com, bp, and baseball-reference) for 2006 ERA+ leaders was the top 10 on B-R.

I plotted those values, and basically projected a hand-drawn curve to the...

Forum: Sporting Events

08-10-2007, 06:13 PM

Replies: 17

Pitching Probabilities

Posted By prohornblower

Re: Pitching Probabilities

[ QUOTE ]
Sportsbetting is a better place for this question. You'll get higher quality responses from those that choose to answer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you implying that there are posters in...

Forum: Sporting Events

08-10-2007, 05:57 PM

Replies: 17

Pitching Probabilities

Posted By prohornblower

Re: Pitching Probabilities

Maybe what I can do is take the top 30 (starting) pitchers from last year in terms of ERA+ to find the ace, and take pitchers 31-60 in ERA+ to get the #2 guy, and then just mirror the numbers about...

Forum: Sporting Events

08-10-2007, 05:54 PM

Replies: 17

Pitching Probabilities

Posted By prohornblower

Re: Pitching Probabilities

Ehhh, I probably need to clarify here.

Mainly what I'm looking for has more to do with how much better is an ace, and #2 starter than average? And how much worse is a #4 & #5 starter than...

Forum: Sporting Events

08-10-2007, 04:55 PM

Replies: 17

Pitching Probabilities

Posted By prohornblower

Re: Pitching Probabilities

Yeah, hypothetical averages.

Forum: Sporting Events

08-10-2007, 04:44 PM

Replies: 17

Pitching Probabilities

Posted By prohornblower

Pitching Probabilities

I'm currently doing a little study, but I need the assistance of people more knowledgeable than myself here.

I'm trying to figure out what the hypothetical probabilities (I say probabilities but...

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