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Search: Posts Made By: alThor
Forum: Probability 10-14-2007, 12:33 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 84
Posted By alThor
Re: LLN Question (FGators Question)

[ QUOTE ]
lol at thinking definitions on MathWorld are worded poorly.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol at thinking MathWorld is perfect. You know it isn't just Weisstein, right?

Check out the 2nd last...
Forum: Probability 07-10-2007, 05:41 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 70
Posted By alThor
Re: Make an easy to use program out of this information

[ QUOTE ]
I guess what I meant by "heavy stats work" is "some idea of how people at the first few levels play".

[/ QUOTE ]

There is such a thing as a theoretically unexploitable mixed...
Forum: Probability 07-05-2007, 06:40 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 95
Posted By alThor
Re: Cumulative probabilities/normal distribution/series of trials

You are asking a Risk of Ruin question. In some cases, the probability you are looking for is roughly twice the likelihood that you end beyond X standard deviations from the mean. I'll let the ROR...
Forum: Probability 06-21-2007, 07:16 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 61
Posted By alThor
Re: Math question.

[ QUOTE ]
C(X Y) is going to be used to mean X choose Y. I think these are right, but would appreciate double checking.

Second question: C(12 8) or (12!)/((8!)*(4!)) = 495
There are 12 face...
Forum: Probability 06-11-2007, 03:30 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 70
Posted By alThor
Re: Sit and Go Prop Bet

[ QUOTE ]
OP forgot to mention that if he wins one game then loses the next that counts as one trail

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you know that because you are the "friend" in the bet?

Just in case the...
Forum: Probability 05-23-2007, 12:59 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 397
Posted By alThor
Re: Math Magic God Problem

[ QUOTE ]
Then one day a famous magician duplicates the "trick". And he explains how he did it. Sceptics breathe a sigh of relief. But the guy doesn't change his claims. He simply admits that this...
Forum: Probability 04-13-2007, 01:25 AM
Replies: 62
Views: 331
Posted By alThor
Re: April 2007 IBM Ponder This Challenge

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[ QUOTE ]
The solution for M must have had a hidden assumption that half the integers are negative?

[/ QUOTE ]
This assumption is encoded in the fact that I used a kind of principal...
Forum: Probability 04-11-2007, 03:24 PM
Replies: 62
Views: 331
Posted By alThor
Re: April 2007 IBM Ponder This Challenge

[ QUOTE ]
On the other hand, if you mean reaching 1 below without having first reached 2 below, or vice versa, then it is not obvious, in fact I think it is false, that they are equally likely.
...
Forum: Probability 04-10-2007, 11:25 PM
Replies: 62
Views: 331
Posted By alThor
Re: April 2007 IBM Ponder This Challenge

This problem (and your solution) remind me of the risk-of-ruin problems with integer payoffs. Such problems have been solved, e.g. when you lose one unit or win k units (2 in this case).

So one...
Forum: Probability 03-20-2007, 10:36 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 67
Posted By alThor
Re: The Jeopardy 3-way tie

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
They all 3 get the full amount, plus he gets to play the weak players again, so no idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I always wondered why the leaders normally bet to win...
Forum: Probability 02-09-2007, 12:35 PM
Replies: 52
Views: 203
Posted By alThor
Re: The Cab Problem

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I'm interested in reading different views about this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right one and wrong ones? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Use Cohen's reasoning (or rather, the reasoning...
Forum: Internet Gambling 02-04-2007, 01:06 AM
Replies: 56
Views: 201
Posted By alThor
Re: Interesting Washington Post Article About NETELLER

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
They are digging their own grave with this “bargaining.”


[/ QUOTE ]

WRONG!
The bargaining chip is forcing the DOJ to take the legally inconsistant position that...
Forum: Internet Gambling 01-21-2007, 03:11 PM
Replies: 75
Views: 281
Posted By alThor
Re: Neteller EFT\'s to take 2-4 weeks.

[ QUOTE ]
Neteller is probably rolling paper to invest our dead money. It will take some time for longer maturity paper to cash out for them. I believe this is part of the way they make money. They...
Forum: Probability 12-10-2006, 01:51 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 99
Posted By alThor
Re: Searching for theorem about mixed strategies

[ QUOTE ]
There is a following theorem :
"In any 2 person game if one player is using mixed strategy A there exist pure strategy B which is optimal vs strategy A".
...This theorem is known as Yao...
Forum: Internet Gambling 11-20-2006, 03:02 PM
Replies: 578
Views: 4,475
Posted By alThor
Re: Bots in PartyPoker\'s 6-max Limit games?

[ QUOTE ]
The Griffin Investigations of online poker?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought you were looking for someone ethical.
Forum: Probability 11-20-2006, 02:53 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 56
Posted By alThor
Re: Looking to buy a calculator.

[ QUOTE ]
Sharp EL-510R ~$10

[/ QUOTE ]

My EL-506A is just about to turn 20 years old. I think I paid about $10 for it. Still works. And as tedious as it is, you can enter data to calculate...
Forum: Probability 10-29-2006, 03:29 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 115
Posted By alThor
Re: Randomizing with a coin

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[ QUOTE ]
AlienBoy's system is correct, but it doesn't guarantee a decision in any finite number of flips.

[/ QUOTE ]

But does BruceZ's guarantee a decision in any finite number of...
Forum: Probability 10-27-2006, 02:36 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 115
Posted By alThor
Re: Randomizing with a coin

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't prove why its impossible to represent it in binary though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I was taking that as given, but good point.

For the OP, if you flip a coin at most n times,...
Forum: Probability 10-26-2006, 07:23 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 115
Posted By alThor
Re: Randomizing with a coin

[ QUOTE ]
Not really. But you cannot represent 1/3 exactly in binary, and all coin flips can be represented in binary, so you have a problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you tried not to prove it, but...
Forum: Probability 10-18-2006, 01:05 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 61
Posted By alThor
Re: Question from my statistics midterm I got wrong

[ QUOTE ]
"C is incorrect because measuring gas usage in hundreds of cubic feet implies that the y values will now be averages, averaging removes some of the variability leading to inflated...
Forum: Probability 10-12-2006, 04:23 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 65
Posted By alThor
Re: Interesting Conditional Probability Question

[ QUOTE ]
Woot!

[/ QUOTE ]

Translation: now he doesn't have to do his homework himself!
Forum: Probability 10-11-2006, 11:10 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 79
Posted By alThor
Re: bankroll concepts - risk of ruin

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If your risk of ruin exceeds 13%, then if you can move down in stakes, you certainly should.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is too strong of a statement.

I know where it's coming from:...
Forum: Probability 09-28-2006, 11:48 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 81
Posted By alThor
Re: Bayesians vs frequensists once again

Good post. One comment:

[ QUOTE ]
The frequentist method is obviously a simplification and has drawbacks like the

[ QUOTE ]
Frequentists can't assign probabilities to things outside the...
Forum: Probability 09-27-2006, 08:27 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 73
Posted By alThor
Re: 2nd bid also pays problem

This is a great example to show how people don't think ahead (or as your professor will say, use backwards induction).

Against rational opponents, you want to be the first to bid 0.01. If your...
Forum: Internet Gambling 09-26-2006, 05:24 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 67
Posted By alThor
Party \"anywhere\" browser beta

The latest Party reload email (for those that got one) has this in it:

[ QUOTE ]
Play PartyPoker.com anywhere
We’ve worked hard to make sure PartyPoker.com is easily available to you on any...
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