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Forum: Sports Betting

11-29-2007, 06:00 PM

Replies: 51

Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Views: 701

Posted By kyro

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Bengals 80% in Miami, Ravens 70% in Miami, and Jets 65% in Miami.

Good Lord.

Forum: Sports Betting

11-29-2007, 11:29 AM

Replies: 51

Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Views: 701

Posted By kyro

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

yowserss,

There's only 5 games left. I would be really interested in your opinion of the Dolphins chances to win each game assuming each team stands pat with their rosters.

Forum: Sports Betting

11-28-2007, 04:25 PM

Replies: 51

Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Views: 701

Posted By kyro

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

I just did some very rough numbers and figured that Miami was 99.32% to win at least one game since the beginning of the season. That's running bad.

Forum: Sports Betting

11-28-2007, 04:10 PM

Replies: 51

Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Views: 701

Posted By kyro

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

And anyways, I have no idea what the odds of Miami being 0-11 is. It was your number and I was just saying that yes, Miami has run real bad, to an extent we haven't seen before. It might be 1/1000,...

Forum: Sports Betting

11-28-2007, 04:08 PM

Replies: 51

Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Views: 701

Posted By kyro

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

[ QUOTE ]
im saying how can you ascribe a 1/1000 chance to something that history shows us actually has a 1/100 chance of happening

[/ QUOTE ]

Because Miami is significantly better than your...

Forum: Sports Betting

11-28-2007, 04:04 PM

Replies: 51

Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Views: 701

Posted By kyro

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

I don't understand what you're saying. How on earth does history show that Miami isn't running god awful?

Forum: Sports Betting

11-28-2007, 03:47 PM

Replies: 51

Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Views: 701

Posted By kyro

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

[ QUOTE ]
Its funny b/c on its face the math seems very logical, but if you were to run this calculation at the beginning of the season for the first 11 games (having perfect info on the team and...

Forum: Sports Betting

11-28-2007, 03:20 PM

Replies: 51

Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Views: 701

Posted By kyro

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Whoops, I was using the -700 for my argument, the numbers for the -500 that you claim is true odds are even more in my favor. They now have to lose the games against the Bills and Bengals 81% of the...

Forum: Sports Betting

11-28-2007, 03:18 PM

Replies: 51

Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Views: 701

Posted By kyro

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Well if we agree that Miami is AT LEAST 50% to beat the Ravens and Jets, then that's 25% right there. That means they have to go 0-3 at the Bills and Pats, and home against the Bengals. For fun,...

Forum: Sports Betting

11-28-2007, 02:37 PM

Replies: 51

Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Views: 701

Posted By kyro

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Sorry, I thought you meant the teams they were playing had homefield. They're favorites against NY and most likely will be favorites against Baltimore.

Forum: Sports Betting

11-28-2007, 01:53 PM

Replies: 51

Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Views: 701

Posted By kyro

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

[ QUOTE ]
Miami to win 1 game out of 5...They should be giving you odds.

Seriously, this is a horrible bet. Yes they play three junk teams in a row, two with home field, which is why I would...

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