Forum: Sports Betting
12-01-2007, 12:00 AM
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Replies: 16
Views: 654
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-27-2007, 08:21 PM
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Replies: 14
Views: 188
Re: Recommendation on topic of next article
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i would like to hear king yao's take on bet sizing
(ie how often he flat bets, how often he does multi-unit plays, how he weights things.... weighting when the numbers are clear is one...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-27-2007, 02:15 PM
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Replies: 14
Views: 188
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-21-2007, 11:53 AM
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Replies: 4
Views: 60
Re: Playing the EPL
"it seems that the true likelihood of Chelsea winning is closer to 80% or 90%"
There is a huge difference here. The half Kelly stake for an 80% bet at -350 is 5%. The half Kelly stake for a 90%...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-21-2007, 10:08 AM
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Replies: 11
Views: 128
Re: Home advantage and capping.
Rustjive, I just wanted to point out that there's much more to home field advantage than the infamous "12th man".
Teams built for specific environments is a very good point and should be taken...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-21-2007, 02:28 AM
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Replies: 11
Views: 128
Re: Home advantage and capping.
It's good that you realize home field advantage isn't something you can express as points (especially in football), as the numbers just don't add up right. In some cases you're giving too little and...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 02:55 PM
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Replies: 49
Views: 274
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-20-2007, 01:27 PM
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Replies: 52
Views: 451
Re: NHL Sports Betting
Henry17, most people don't have a clue... kind of sad, really, but most of these guys are (gasp) legit.
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-19-2007, 11:18 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 83
Re: Sportsbook.com
Withdraw all of your money and never come back. They are not rated very highly.
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-18-2007, 06:14 PM
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Replies: 10
Views: 244
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-17-2007, 09:45 PM
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Replies: 10
Views: 244
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-16-2007, 08:37 PM
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Replies: 29
Views: 367
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-16-2007, 05:25 PM
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Replies: 49
Views: 274
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-15-2007, 04:18 PM
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Replies: 5
Views: 80
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-15-2007, 03:40 PM
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Replies: 13
Views: 123
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-15-2007, 03:39 PM
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Replies: 5
Views: 80
Re: Calculating \"edge\" in NBA totals
"look at pinny's dropdown menus for the value of each point"
This is a good place to start, but make sure you're using the dropdown properly. The dropdowns are built with the assumption that the...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-14-2007, 06:21 PM
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Replies: 48
Views: 293
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-14-2007, 05:43 PM
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Replies: 48
Views: 293
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-14-2007, 10:04 AM
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Replies: 33
Views: 230
Re: Anyone want to re-open The Well?
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oh, and i'll go in the well if someone can provide me with a satisfactory explanation why the URL http://matchbook.com loads more reliably than http://www.matchbook.com .
[/ QUOTE ]
...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-13-2007, 05:51 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 74
Re: Question for the Math guys, I\'m lost.
There are a host of distributions I want to better understand. I'm currently wading my way through the NHL.
2nd half distributions for any sport will likely be the last thing on my list, simply...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-13-2007, 01:26 PM
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Replies: 33
Views: 230
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-13-2007, 01:25 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 74
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-12-2007, 05:17 PM
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Replies: 10
Views: 225
Re: Kelly Betting: Spread vs. Moneyline
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First, the Kelly formula is a maximum of a growth function for your bankroll. The main thing to remember is to use log() of your growth (no I can't explain why, but that's the function to...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-12-2007, 05:06 PM
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Replies: 32
Views: 225
Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
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someone is betting seriously and only using B&M? is this 1991? do some casinos offer -105 or something special these days that I don't know about?
[/ QUOTE ]...
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Forum: Sports Betting
11-12-2007, 04:59 PM
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Replies: 10
Views: 225
Re: Kelly Betting: Spread vs. Moneyline
The DeGroot book is very good. I've seen it suggested in the Probability forum, yet it took me forever to drink the kool-aid and finally buy it.
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0201524880/
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