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Search: Posts Made By: ImStillBen
Forum: Sports Betting 12-01-2007, 03:31 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 607
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: Good sports betting Podcast

Leroy's Sports Hour is not terrible.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-30-2007, 03:51 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 581
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: how much is homefield advantage worth in the NHL?

I'm assuming that number represents the average home/road scoring differential.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-28-2007, 01:26 AM
Replies: 21
Views: 420
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: hows this for a teaser?

WarDekar getting run out for stinking the place up with truth while QueenYao delivers a sold-out symposium on advanced risk management using your gut and thinks his correlated NFL parlay is cashing...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-26-2007, 01:03 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 246
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: How does a book determine if you\'re a sharp?

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I really know nothing about this, I originally thought a book would only adjust someone's lines if they were a big winner, betting a large amount per game etc, but a...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-25-2007, 09:42 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 70
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: Why do 2-team parlays pay 2.6 to 1?

52.5% on 2-team parlays? Where do I sign up for the newsletter?
Forum: Sports Betting 11-25-2007, 07:59 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 198
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: Teaser question regarding Wong\'s SSB.

Your doubts are well-founded, and that's not a separate note.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-25-2007, 07:55 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 158
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: Noob Hockey Question

You should bet these. Spiro needs a new yacht.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-18-2007, 05:30 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 241
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: when to take - moneline?

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Most favorites are overvalued.

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No.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-14-2007, 01:50 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 174
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: The Sportsbook.com Game of the day?

Don't bet at sportsbook.com or any of the dozens of sites they run. They WILL steal from you, sooner or later.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-14-2007, 01:30 AM
Replies: 200
Views: 2,364
Posted By ImStillBen
Forum: Sports Betting 11-02-2007, 04:19 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 321
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: Largest Lead Prop Question

I'm sure your gut instinct is much more accurate than the linesmaker's data and experience. Fire away!
Forum: Sports Betting 11-02-2007, 01:52 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 121
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: A Simple Kelly Problem I Can\'t Solve

You people are hilarious.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-01-2007, 09:13 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 121
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: A Simple Kelly Problem I Can\'t Solve

Umm, you're leaving out a key piece of information here, genius.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-01-2007, 09:02 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 57
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: Build my pub parlay, week 2

I'll take KC, OK St, NC St, & CO St for $325 please.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-30-2007, 12:27 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 551
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: local pub parlay cards

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10-teamers become better than 4-teamers at about 52.1%, but your EV is -26% of your bet at that point.


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0.535130845 is the probability at which...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-28-2007, 08:13 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 262
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: Hedge Or Not? Help

Not enough information.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-27-2007, 01:16 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 551
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: local pub parlay cards

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10-teamers become better than 4-teamers at about 52.1%, but your EV is -26% of your bet at that point.


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0.535130845 is the probability at which the expectation between...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-26-2007, 04:04 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 551
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: local pub parlay cards

OK, you're right, if every game has p=.50, then your least bad option is a 4-teamer. It's also slightly better to buy a scratch-off ticket than to drop a dollar bill in a flask of sulfuric acid, but...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-26-2007, 03:50 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 551
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: local pub parlay cards

Assume >53.6% probability.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-26-2007, 02:59 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 551
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: local pub parlay cards

10-teamers have the best expectation.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-25-2007, 09:25 PM
Replies: 83
Views: 948
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread

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(it is if you assume Poisson distribution of run scored)

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No.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-23-2007, 02:35 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 57
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: soccer line question

('Yes' is the correct answer.)
Forum: Sports Betting 10-23-2007, 02:34 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 57
Posted By ImStillBen
Forum: Sports Betting 10-23-2007, 03:38 AM
Replies: 44
Views: 273
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: Daliman WONG Teaser FAQ

Mogwai, please take a canary with you next time.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-23-2007, 03:34 AM
Replies: 39
Views: 401
Posted By ImStillBen
Re: NE -1500 Free Money?

I have an open leg of a three team parlay I need to close out. Before the season I bet Michigan over Appalachian St and USC over Stanford for free money. Then I fell into a coma but now I'm back...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 228

 
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