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Search: Posts Made By: DrJ
Forum: MTT Strategy 05-07-2007, 12:28 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 89
Posted By DrJ
Re: Can you fold QQ pre-flop?

[ QUOTE ]
depends on your goal. If you really need $315 then fold

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are folding this because you really need $315, what was your goal in entering the tourney anyways?
Forum: MTT Strategy 04-19-2007, 01:57 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 98
Posted By DrJ
Re: Pushbot charts Discussion

I have been wondering similar things. IE, I was just in a 10/180 with 95o in cutoff. Stack is 2400, blinds are 400/200 with a 25 ante so initial pot is 800 and my M is around 3.

Down to...
Forum: MTT Strategy 04-18-2007, 12:12 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 49
Posted By DrJ
Did I let him off the hook too easy?

Been noticing lately that I've been having issues extracting max value out of hands and am trying to plug it. Wondering if this is yet another case of said issue coming up.

PokerStars ...
Forum: MTT Strategy 04-17-2007, 05:42 PM
Replies: 48
Views: 174
Posted By DrJ
Re: How to extract the most from nuts?

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since you are even or a 3-2 dog against those hands that push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see where you're getting these odds from. TT, JJ, KK are close to 2-1...
Forum: MTT Strategy 04-17-2007, 05:15 PM
Replies: 48
Views: 174
Posted By DrJ
Re: How to extract the most from nuts?

[ QUOTE ]
since you are even or a 3-2 dog against those hands that push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see where you're getting these odds from. TT, JJ, KK are all better than 3-2. KK is 1.7...
Forum: MTT Strategy 04-17-2007, 01:43 PM
Replies: 48
Views: 174
Posted By DrJ
Re: How to extract the most from nuts?

[ QUOTE ]
Then you evaluate after his play on the turn, I understand we didn't have the nuts on the flop, but we did had a decent hand. Just because a tight player raises from UTG doesn't always...
Forum: MTT Strategy 04-17-2007, 01:26 PM
Replies: 48
Views: 174
Posted By DrJ
Re: How to extract the most from nuts?

You didn't have the nut flush on the flop - when people are suggesting that you make this raise.

So you're suggesting that the way to make the most when you get the nuts is to get as many chips in...
Forum: MTT Strategy 04-17-2007, 01:19 PM
Replies: 48
Views: 174
Posted By DrJ
Re: How to extract the most from nuts?

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If he folds after the raise, then we weren't making any more money on the turn or river.

[/ QUOTE ]

And if he doesn't fold, you almost certainly just put in a lot of money as a big...
Forum: MTT Strategy 04-17-2007, 01:15 PM
Replies: 48
Views: 174
Posted By DrJ
Re: How to extract the most from nuts?

[ QUOTE ]
4 queens and eight clubs give u definitely 12 outs. using the simple rule of 2 and 4 u r near even money. also, u could quite possibly have other outs such as a 3rd king or the ace for 2...
Forum: Poker Theory 03-26-2007, 12:35 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 115
Posted By DrJ
Re: NL - Continuation bet with a draw

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They'd have to be calling/raising here pretty often for something like a half-pot bet to be a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to measure that expectation against that of...
Forum: Poker Theory 03-26-2007, 12:24 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 115
Posted By DrJ
Re: NL - Continuation bet with a draw

[ QUOTE ]
The Rules of a continuation bet:

1. You was the aggressor before the flop
2. It is checked to you (you got one or two opponents)
3. There are only low cards like 825.
4. There is no...
Forum: Poker Theory 03-26-2007, 12:21 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 115
Posted By DrJ
Re: NL - Continuation bet with a draw

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for your reply, but it was kind of obvious, to me at least. I was looking to get some theory on how to play against players who can use their heads for something other than banging...
Forum: Poker Theory 03-22-2007, 03:03 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 67
Posted By DrJ
Re: NLHTAP Sklansky-Chubokov Numbers in Tournaments

[ QUOTE ]
It definetly makes sense, the S-C numbers don't necassarily say that it is best to push, just that it is +EV and thus folding definetly can't be correct, at least from an EV standpoint.
...
Forum: MTT Strategy 03-16-2007, 10:48 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 79
Posted By DrJ
Re: Final Table AK

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If you're raising preflop this with the intention of pushing virtually no matter what the flop is, what do you gain by not pushing preflop instead? I'd rather get all of my...
Forum: MTT Strategy 03-15-2007, 05:52 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 79
Posted By DrJ
Re: Final Table AK

If you're raising preflop this with the intention of pushing virtually no matter what the flop is, what do you gain by not pushing preflop instead? I'd rather get all of my money in with 5 cards...
Forum: Sports Betting 01-10-2007, 01:39 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 114
Posted By DrJ
Re: Should I hedge this \"bet\"? What is the highest EV move?

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Also, as we learned during the Mansion promo, hedging is for pussies. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I do understand that I'm sacrificing...
Forum: Sports Betting 01-10-2007, 11:32 AM
Replies: 27
Views: 114
Posted By DrJ
Re: Should I hedge this \"bet\"? What is the highest EV move?

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Bet $820 on Chicago, for a win of $200 if Chicago wins.
Bet $200 on Seattle, for a win of $940 if Seattle wins.

It cost you $1120 to win $1140.

I'm obviously...
Forum: Sports Betting 01-09-2007, 04:54 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 114
Posted By DrJ
Re: Should I hedge this \"bet\"? What is the highest EV move?

I have to be leaving out something - the way I see it with a ML of -410 on Da Bears and +370 on Seattle you could do the following:

Bet $820 on Chicago, for a win of $200 if Chicago wins.
Bet...
Forum: Sports Betting 01-09-2007, 04:18 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 114
Posted By DrJ
Re: Should I hedge this \"bet\"? What is the highest EV move?

One last bother.

Since the money line is so big and they're estimating about 80% chances of the Bears winning, I could actually guarantee about 80% of my money in this scenario, correct?

Say...
Forum: Sports Betting 01-09-2007, 01:26 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 114
Posted By DrJ
Re: Should I hedge this \"bet\"? What is the highest EV move?

[ QUOTE ]
You're looking at the wrong numbers then; your paper might not carry the info you need. Those numbers are the juice you have to pay to bet the spread. Go to www.pinnaclesports.com...
Forum: Sports Betting 01-08-2007, 04:13 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 114
Posted By DrJ
Re: Should I hedge this \"bet\"? What is the highest EV move?

[ QUOTE ]
Did you sell tickets to the NFC Championship game in Chicago?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. So it totally hinges on this one game.

I'm very confident in their chances this weekend, so I'm ...
Forum: Sports Betting 01-08-2007, 04:11 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 114
Posted By DrJ
Re: Should I hedge this \"bet\"? What is the highest EV move?

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Well, one way would be to assume that Team B covers the spread 50% of the time. Convert the money line into a winning percentage--for example, if they're +150, then they win...
Forum: Sports Betting 01-08-2007, 02:53 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 114
Posted By DrJ
Re: Should I hedge this \"bet\"? What is the highest EV move?

Alright, the matchup has been set and it is Da Bears vs Seattle. I was pretty much set on not hedging, but this gigantic spread has me again waivering...

9 points is a pretty large window to...
Forum: Sports Betting 01-04-2007, 12:48 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 114
Posted By DrJ
Re: Should I hedge this \"bet\"? What is the highest EV move?

Thanks for the help guys!

After reading these responses and the articles, I think it's clear that I shouldn't hedge. 50% of the money really isn't a huge amount to me.

Saw the mansion promo...
Forum: Sports Betting 01-03-2007, 10:41 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 114
Posted By DrJ
Re: Should I hedge this \"bet\"? What is the highest EV move?

In the 2nd scenario, how can I figure out what percentage chance I have at the 150%? Is there any database that says "Teams that are dogs by 4 1/2 points cover the spread and lose the game 10%...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 36

 
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