Forum: Poker Theory
03-30-2007, 01:35 PM
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Replies: 8
Views: 58
Re: randomisers
I also think that randomizing is much more important in live games. People will come up with a story to explain your action and you can either try to exploit that or you can step out of that game by...
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Forum: Poker Theory
03-29-2007, 05:22 PM
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Replies: 8
Views: 58
Re: randomisers
Not at all. If you don't randomize your play somewhat you'll get picked off by good players. The problem is that people are naturally terrible at generating random numbers so having an external...
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Forum: STT Strategy
03-15-2007, 04:25 PM
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Replies: 37
Views: 132
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Forum: Poker Theory
03-14-2007, 08:16 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 63
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Forum: Poker Theory
02-15-2007, 06:41 PM
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Replies: 18
Views: 99
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Forum: Poker Theory
02-15-2007, 05:52 PM
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Replies: 18
Views: 99
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Forum: Poker Theory
02-14-2007, 06:22 PM
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Replies: 18
Views: 99
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Forum: Poker Theory
02-14-2007, 05:25 PM
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Replies: 18
Views: 99
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Forum: STT Strategy
02-09-2007, 05:09 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 55
Re: Cross-Post : Probability Problem
This is actually a very famous problem first presented by Marilyn vos Savant. You're not alone in presuming it's 50/50 but you're also not correct. Go look it up on wikipedia. It's a great story...
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Forum: STT Strategy
02-09-2007, 05:04 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 55
Re: Cross-Post : Probability Problem
No they aren't. The reason is that we don't know that there is an AA out there. If we knew there was then everyone who folded would increase the odds of each of the other people having AA. But in...
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Forum: STT Strategy
02-09-2007, 01:03 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 61
Re: $6.5 AQ 1st hand.
I agree about the fold being too nitty. There's lots of hands in his range that you're still up against. If I knew I could force AQ to fold and AKx flop then I'd be minraising flops against you too.
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Forum: Poker Theory
02-08-2007, 07:11 PM
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Replies: 16
Views: 268
Re: NL: how deep??
You're right. I was using Full Tilt SNG as my sanity check. I figure that with AK on a A82r flop I couldn't be raised off my hand with my full stack of 1500. But I did my math wrong. if the...
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Forum: STT Strategy
02-08-2007, 07:01 PM
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Replies: 8
Views: 35
Re: $16 AQo bubble
I ran the numbers. If he's playing top 50% or top 80% then it doesn't make much difference if you push or fold. But if he's playing top 25% then it's a clear fold. BTW - I assumed the big stack...
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Forum: STT Strategy
02-08-2007, 03:01 PM
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Replies: 8
Views: 45
Re: ($2) A6o on suited flop
I like the PF raise. You're almost certainly ahead. And I like the flop. You're still almost certainly ahead. Bet the pot to make sure he doesn't get drawing odds. Bet the pot and call a shove...
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Forum: Poker Theory
02-08-2007, 01:57 PM
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Replies: 16
Views: 268
Re: NL: how deep??
I'm not sure I agree here. I don't think he's sayin that he doesn't play TPTK if he has >30BB, just that it's going to be possible to raise him off it on the flop if he has that much stack. I can...
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Forum: STT Strategy
02-07-2007, 06:31 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 227
Re: ($16): Tough bubble decision with 88
I actually wrote something to do that. Not productized, but I wrote it to solve exactly this kind of problem. You're the first person I've heard about who's been curious about adding this dimension...
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Forum: Poker Theory
02-07-2007, 04:57 PM
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Replies: 16
Views: 268
Re: NL: how deep??
Agreed. Though the size of the pot is often a function of the BB.
Here's an example of the limit of my commitment to TPTK. If I have AK and the PF betting is 4BB each from me and villain. If I...
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Forum: STT Strategy
02-06-2007, 11:42 AM
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Replies: 11
Views: 138
Re: (27) AA facing HUGE raise from UTG
his overbet said he didn't Really want a call. Probably TT or JJ (though his fishiness makes reads harder). Smooth calling him wouldn't have been a bad play. You're not likely to get other callers...
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Forum: STT Strategy
02-06-2007, 12:05 AM
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Replies: 18
Views: 64
Re: $27 Shortstack AA
Having shoved the last 2 hands you've Got To shove this for sure.
But, if you hadn't done that (pushed yet) then there's a school of thought (mine) that says that raising to 600 is a good plan...
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Forum: STT Strategy
02-02-2007, 06:06 PM
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Replies: 16
Views: 93
Re: $225 River 3 bet?
[ QUOTE ]
you let him play really well.
[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree. Hero's play positively sang draw and villain let him try and make it by not betting the turn and then went ahead and raised on...
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Forum: STT Strategy
02-02-2007, 04:26 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 39
Re: AK pf
There's a couple of minor errors in your calculations. First, the chance of them having AA/KK is diminished (halved) by the fact that I hold AK. Second, I'm 85:15 against AA, but not against KK. ...
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Forum: STT Strategy
02-02-2007, 03:07 PM
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Replies: 13
Views: 204
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Forum: STT Strategy
02-02-2007, 03:04 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 39
Re: AK pf
I agree with your re-raise range of AQs+/JJ+ though maybe it's AK+/JJ+. However, they're probably not going to be pushed off their JJ so maybe I should just fold this. Though I'm still not sure.
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Forum: STT Strategy
02-02-2007, 02:25 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 39
AK pf
This is a winner takes all live game. $100 buy in, winner goes to a WPT satellite and then (hopefully) the WPT event.
10 players. 1st hand, no reads. stacks are 5000 apiece.
I get AKs in the...
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Forum: STT Strategy
02-01-2007, 02:10 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 45
Re: AK early on
Personally, I like to re-raise. I then call shovers and deal with my race. But I also pick up some pots immediately and will bet out the flop (almost) 100% of the time and will take down most pots...
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