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Forum: Poker Theory 11-27-2007, 04:19 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 616
Posted By JocK
Re: A rag or 98o?

Basing your judgement on the jam-or-fold tables in Chen and Ankenman's "Mathematics of Poker" is perhaps not a bad thing to do. (These tables contain the optimal play of the heads-up jam-or-fold...
Forum: Poker Theory 11-25-2007, 09:31 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 122
Posted By JocK
Morton\'s theorem

Hi, this recent thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=1#Post12980381 (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=12980381&an=0&page=1#Post12980381) made me think about...
Forum: Poker Theory 10-26-2007, 05:23 PM
Replies: 44
Views: 325
Posted By JocK
Re: Which Poker game has the least amount of luck?

[ QUOTE ]
Luck is totally tangible. It's measured in bb²/100 hands.
It's skill that's intangible.

[/ QUOTE ]
Skill(gap) is measured in bb/100 hands.

Surely for the various games there must...
Forum: Poker Theory 10-24-2007, 12:48 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 96
Posted By JocK
Re: Running hands twice

[ QUOTE ]
Pot size = P
Your chance of winning once = x
Expected value of running it once = Px

Your chance of winning twice = 0 (x^2 in most cases, but 0 now because you only have one out)
Your...
Forum: Probability 09-13-2007, 07:42 AM
Replies: 1
Views: 84
Posted By JocK
Likelihood of three-of-a-kind being the nuts

sorry if this poker-trivia question was asked before:

In Texas Hold'Em, what is the a-priori likelihood of the nuts on the river being no better than three-of-a-kind?
Forum: Poker Theory 09-09-2007, 09:34 AM
Replies: 1
Views: 88
Posted By JocK
Beyond Sklansky-Chubukov

http://base.google.com/base/a/jkoelm/1121639/D13078489975896985776

keen to get your comments...

Johannes
Forum: Poker Theory 08-27-2007, 01:24 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 54
Posted By JocK
Re: bet sizing when holding the out

[ QUOTE ]
Well I can see you would price it about 2% higher.

[/ QUOTE ]
This seems incorrect. Ignoring further betting and assuming you indeed can be sure your opponent is on a flush draw, the...
Forum: Poker Theory 07-27-2007, 05:06 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 76
Posted By JocK
Re: Simple Expected Value Question - which is correct

[ QUOTE ]
Situation: AA versus a flush draw in $30-$60 limit hold em with one card left to go $400 in the pot.

9 cards give the flush draw the nuts.

For this case let us assume that the flush...
Forum: Poker Theory 07-27-2007, 04:47 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 251
Posted By JocK
Re: Fold Equity (Request for Definition and Examples)

[ QUOTE ]
[..] what is the meaning of the term Fold Equity and what are some examples of some situations where your Fold Equity is high, low, or not a factor?

[/ QUOTE ]
For a definition, see:...
Forum: Poker Theory 07-21-2007, 08:32 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 79
Posted By JocK
Re: Preflop No# ?

Simple systems for ranking starting hands do exist (see for instance: http://base.google.com/base/a/1121639/D2519376119448548120). (http://base.google.com/base/a/1121639/D2519376119448548120)).
...
Forum: Poker Theory 07-14-2007, 07:00 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 89
Posted By JocK
Re: M Ratios

[ QUOTE ]
no, im talking about calculating Ms for everyone and then determining the weighted average M. i.e. one player has 1,000,000 in chips and 9 player have $100,000. The weighted average M...
Forum: Poker Theory 07-11-2007, 01:34 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 62
Posted By JocK
Re: Is a \"perfect strategy\" possible?

[ QUOTE ]
It's very easy to mathematically prove such a strategy exists. Finding such a strategy is, of course, practically intractable.

[/ QUOTE ]
We have to be careful here: the...
Forum: Poker Theory 07-03-2007, 01:31 PM
Replies: 186
Views: 767
Posted By JocK
Re: Will computers dominate poker as they did with chess?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have confused separate events.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry, but this isn't quite correct either. /images/graemlins/smile.gif


[/ QUOTE ]
Forum: Poker Theory 07-03-2007, 01:10 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 243
Posted By JocK
Re: Fold Equity - A Couple of Questions

http://www.google.com/base/a/1121639/D14649816285364122504
Forum: Poker Theory 07-02-2007, 01:18 PM
Replies: 186
Views: 767
Posted By JocK
Re: Will computers dominate poker as they did with chess?

[ QUOTE ]
Playing a table is different from playing a hand heads-up. If all the other players conspire against you, you can't win however good you are. I think game theoretic play based on heads-up...
Forum: Poker Theory 07-02-2007, 01:04 PM
Replies: 186
Views: 767
Posted By JocK
Re: Will computers dominate poker as they did with chess?

[ QUOTE ]
what proof do you have of computers' learning abilities?

[/ QUOTE ]The strongest Backgammon bots are neural nets that started off by playing many games against itself using no more...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-25-2007, 08:17 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 71
Posted By JocK
Re: who\'s more likely to win the main event?

[ QUOTE ]
One of the greatest poker players who’s ever lived was named Stuey Unger [sp]. Unger was the only man to win the World Series of Poker three times. During his relatively short life (he...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-17-2007, 08:39 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 62
Posted By JocK
Re: Jam-or-fold: (near)optimal for stacks up to 10 or 11BB?

Thanks Jerrod, you're right. In the above description I erroneously extended the functional expression for the EV in the jam-or-fold game to the full game.

However, when limited to situations in...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-08-2007, 06:20 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 62
Posted By JocK
Re: Jam-or-fold: (near)optimal for stacks up to 10 or 11BB?

OK, I think I have to refine my argument.

(Yes, stubborn enough to continue to be pretty much convinced that being on the button heads-up constitutes an advantage for any stack size......
Forum: Poker Theory 05-06-2007, 11:03 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 62
Posted By JocK
Re: Jam-or-fold: (near)optimal for stacks up to 10 or 11BB?

thanks for the reactions.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[..] is my assumption that (when not limited to jam-or-fold) playing from the small blind in headsup gives an edge (for any effective stacksize)...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-04-2007, 07:41 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 62
Posted By JocK
Jam-or-fold: (near)optimal for stacks up to 10 or 11BB?

In "The mathematics of Poker" Chen and Ankenman state:"

"Jam-or-fold is at least near-optimal for stack sizes up to about 10 or 11 blinds"

However, based on some calculculations (see: ...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-01-2007, 08:55 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 52
Posted By JocK
Re: Value of Information

[ QUOTE ]

How much would it be worth per hand, if before you are dealt your cards, you could pay to see the flop (before it's dealt)?
1 BB/Hand seems a cheap price. What about 5 BB/Hand?


[/...
Forum: Poker Theory 04-25-2007, 05:51 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 231
Posted By JocK
Re: Game theory books

If you really want to study the subject, the book "Game Theory"by Drew Fudenberg and Jean Tirole is an excellent choice.

However, if you are mainly interested in game theoretical applications in...
Forum: Poker Theory 04-23-2007, 05:10 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 110
Posted By JocK
Re: Short Stack Play

Taking short-stack strategy to the -hypothetical- extreme of nano-stacks, it can be shown that such strategy is unexploitable and strictly EV positive. Simply because some folding is bound to happen...
Forum: Poker Theory 04-15-2007, 08:41 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 101
Posted By JocK
Re: Flush v Straight

[ QUOTE ]
I've read a couple of sources that said it was an anomaly of the game. Both indicated that a flush was more likely than a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is incorrect. Out of the total of...
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