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Forum: Sports Betting 12-01-2007, 02:27 AM
Replies: 104
Views: 586
Posted By Rustjive
Re: BJLTNYK/nutshot 07-08 CBB Season Thread

Might have been a better result if Oregon St. didn't shoot under 30% from the floor for the game. Oh well.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-30-2007, 02:17 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 107
Posted By Rustjive
Re: John Morrison

Sounds like scam.

"Learn The Explosive Secrets How To Win 97% Of Your Sports Bets From A Statistics Doctorate And Betting Professional"

wowowowowow 97%
Forum: Sports Betting 11-29-2007, 11:13 PM
Replies: 91
Views: 864
Posted By Rustjive
Re: NBA Week 5 (11/26-12/02)

Fire Isiah? 41 points from the Knicks through 3 quarters right now.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-29-2007, 12:44 PM
Replies: 51
Views: 410
Posted By Rustjive
Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

[ QUOTE ]
Chance to LOSE:
NYJ - 55% (I actually think its 65% but I dont want to cause an uproar given where the spread is)
BUF - 60%
BAL - 70%
NE - So much uncertainty depending who they start...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-29-2007, 01:42 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 286
Posted By Rustjive
Re: Effect of early start-time?

Sorry, MicroBob, I forgot to add [/sarcasm].

Like you, I wish we had more on this angle. Unlike cato-tonia, I'm not an [censored].
Forum: Sports Betting 11-29-2007, 12:53 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 286
Posted By Rustjive
Re: Effect of early start-time?

Yeah, Cato, I totally see what you're talking about. Like waking up early basically has 0 effect on living in general, much less football games. And college students pretty much hate sleeping...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-28-2007, 10:59 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 415
Posted By Rustjive
Re: NHL Road Team System November 27th to January 1st

Wish we had units for those #s you posted - could be that % was built into the moneylines already.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-28-2007, 01:05 AM
Replies: 200
Views: 2,199
Posted By Rustjive
Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System

...and UCSB wins 63-60, failing to cover -4. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

WTB OT
Forum: Sports Betting 11-27-2007, 05:46 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 290
Posted By Rustjive
Re: presidential election

Looking at WSEX prices there's value in shorting candidates like Ron Paul and Fred Thompson for Rep. Nom, but who wants to hold onto futures for that long for a 4% return on non-negligible risk?...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-27-2007, 04:20 PM
Replies: 76
Views: 951
Posted By Rustjive
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***

Had this happen to Arizona-Detroit - sometimes the books are so sure that the public are betting on the square side they don't even care that they aren't shading their risk.

Not saying that I know...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-27-2007, 03:14 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 8,791
Posted By Rustjive
Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

From what I've heard it's pointless to bet on obviously wrong numbers. The bet will be voided, and not only that, you might even get flagged for being someone who requires extra supervision, you...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-26-2007, 01:09 PM
Replies: 214
Views: 1,126
Posted By Rustjive
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (PHI @ NE) ***

This is a graphic that ran in the Boston Globe about the predicted spreads for future Patriots opponents on Sunday (ie, before the Eagles game):
...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-25-2007, 11:37 PM
Replies: 214
Views: 1,126
Posted By Rustjive
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (PHI @ NE) ***

[ QUOTE ]

Reasoning like this is fantastic. And you wondered why people weren't taking you seriously and making fun of you and the other Pats fanbois.


[/ QUOTE ]

100+ posts into the...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-25-2007, 12:48 PM
Replies: 214
Views: 1,126
Posted By Rustjive
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (PHI @ NE) ***

[ QUOTE ]
I said spread with McNabb would be under 3TDs, and I was right.
Your fanbois said it would be >4TDs, and they were wrong. You are bad at math and bad at making up fabricated quotes. GG...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-25-2007, 02:07 AM
Replies: 214
Views: 1,126
Posted By Rustjive
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (PHI @ NE) ***

Line hit 23 within the hour of it opening. McNabb was ruled out within the last day. Nice revisionist history.

Re: your second point:

[ QUOTE ]
Posted by Me at 12:35 AM
Don't see it - take...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-25-2007, 01:54 AM
Replies: 214
Views: 1,126
Posted By Rustjive
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (PHI @ NE) ***

[ QUOTE ]
Posted at 11:28 PM
Reid says McNabb is going. -17.5 looks about right if McNabb starts. Meaning NWE wins 38-13.

[/ QUOTE ]

- followed by 10+ posts after midnight that all sound...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-25-2007, 01:23 AM
Replies: 214
Views: 1,126
Posted By Rustjive
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (PHI @ NE) ***

[ QUOTE ]
lol this thread should get stickied because it has so many posts that exemplify how to not think about sportsbetting

[/ QUOTE ]

I really need you and Thremp to explain, and drop...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-24-2007, 11:26 PM
Replies: 214
Views: 1,126
Posted By Rustjive
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (PHI @ NE) ***

I just want to add, without picking for the game or shitslinging, that applying 'regression to the mean' to everything is basically [censored]. Thremp, Martingale fade the Pats til you win, LDO?

A...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-24-2007, 12:49 AM
Replies: 214
Views: 1,126
Posted By Rustjive
Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (PHI @ NE) ***

[ QUOTE ]
Is the move from +3 to +9 the same as the move from +23 to +29? It seems to me that the move in Game A would be larger.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-21-2007, 01:37 PM
Replies: 214
Views: 1,126
Posted By Rustjive
Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/25/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (PHI @ NE) ***

Big tax.

Also, the 'pride' comment I find pretty funny. You don't think the Bills or the Redskins have 'pride'?
Forum: Sports Betting 11-21-2007, 01:32 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 740
Posted By Rustjive
Re: NFL undefeated season prop

Shula's comments come to mind.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-21-2007, 08:26 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 113
Posted By Rustjive
Re: Home advantage and capping.

[ QUOTE ]
What I do know, however, is that it might bet better to look at it as away team disadvantage. Traveling and staying in hotels in an unfamiliar place takes its toll. It isn't always about...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-21-2007, 01:19 AM
Replies: 68
Views: 436
Posted By Rustjive
Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

I don't know how you can say Kyro doesn't consider such-and-such statistic when you ignore the Yards per Attempt statistic.

There are a million other things that can be trotted out - the fact that...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-20-2007, 10:53 PM
Replies: 68
Views: 436
Posted By Rustjive
Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay so the line should be Green Bay -7 right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there is value in GB -3 / 3.5 .... -5/-6/-7 all seem like more appropriate lines.
...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-20-2007, 10:33 PM
Replies: 53
Views: 547
Posted By Rustjive
Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***

For everyone betting on the Indy game, something to keep in mind:

The receiver-thin Colts have placed Aaron Moorehead, their ostensible short-term Marvin Harrison replacement (which is tough to do...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 65

 
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