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Forum: Probability

08-26-2007, 08:57 AM

Replies: 10

A new (?) colored marbles in a bag/jar problem

Posted By jay_shark

Re: A new (?) colored marbles in a bag/jar problem

Dr Van , it is the same as ICM . I just had another blond moment .

Forum: Probability

08-25-2007, 04:53 AM

Replies: 10

A new (?) colored marbles in a bag/jar problem

Posted By jay_shark

Re: A new (?) colored marbles in a bag/jar problem

Hey Silent ,I made a small blunder on one of my calculations but the idea is still the same .

p(R2) = 2/6*3/4 +1/6*6/10 =0.35
P(R3) = 2/6*1/4 + 1/6*4/10 =0.15

P(B2) = 3/6*1/3 + 2/6*1/4 = 1/4 ...

Forum: Probability

08-24-2007, 05:54 PM

Replies: 10

A new (?) colored marbles in a bag/jar problem

Posted By jay_shark

Re: A new (?) colored marbles in a bag/jar problem

Hey Siegmund , this isn't exactly an ICM problem . Actually that is what I was thinking the first time I read it but the answers are not the same .

Forum: Probability

08-24-2007, 05:50 PM

Replies: 10

A new (?) colored marbles in a bag/jar problem

Posted By jay_shark

Re: A new (?) colored marbles in a bag/jar problem

Ex 1 )

P(R1) = 1/2 ; P(B1)= 2/6 ; P(G1) = 1/6

For R to come in second place , either B comes in first or G comes in first .

P(R2|B1) + P(R2|G1) = P(R2)
2/6*1/4 + 1/6*3/6 = 1/6 =P(R2)
...

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