Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
10-22-2007, 09:51 AM
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Replies: 27
Views: 270
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 08:05 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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we yet have to see your reasonable estimates
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Naah, im going to sleep. but if you are a nice guy you should try to compile a complete (all sessions known) dataset and...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 07:59 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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we yet have to see your reasonable estimates
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Weel, it is not as easy to to as you might think. I might give it a try later, but only if the complete data is made...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 07:56 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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Back since June, but suddenly stopped posting while the superusers were running, then re-appeared to defend them?
Must be coincidence.
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lol, not you too Kurt. And I...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 07:52 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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krumeluren, please give us your opinion on the chip dumping, do you think this is just something that we have all misinterpreted aswell?
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Well, I have read a lot in these...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 07:50 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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krumeluren, can you explain why, after averaging about 4 posts a day since you started posting here, you stopped posting to 2+2 for a month between 8/22 and 9/17? Returning basically for...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 07:46 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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Do you understand what 90/70 means and how it relates to playing perfect poker?
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I think I do. Its a losing strategy with huge variance
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 07:43 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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really, that possibilty was not overlooked. That possibility is what most people in this thread assumed by default until they let the facts convince them otherwise
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[...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 07:31 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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Under you assumption this could all be coincidence.
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I think you hit the nail on the head there. Yes, I think that possibility has been overlooked and the current...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 07:19 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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man stop saying that people wants to believe. They don't and you don't have good arguments to say they do. At least, I'm still waiting to hear them from you.
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A lot of...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 06:54 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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It is how often he could be expected to play perfectly with an infinite river aggression.
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People also wants to believe that this guy plays several hundred hands...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 06:30 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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If you all want to get the story out, you are going to have to spoonfeed it to people. Journalists, Krum, everyone.
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That's a very good suggestion. Tank you Kurt. But...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 06:19 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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ehm skip those kind of religious sounding nonsense please and explain me why 2+2 wants to believe
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sorry, I just don't know where to start.
OK, lets see. Nobody want...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 06:06 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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Almost everybody at 2+2 wants to believe it. Take a look around and see for your self.
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Thats a very strange assumptions. Why would anybody want to believe it?...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 06:04 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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and its quite obv that the styles are very different. you continually ignore this. why?
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I don't think it is easily available. There are bits and pieces all over the...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 05:45 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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OK, I'll take this thread seriously for a second and ask a serious question. Please don't flame, this is a genuine question.
If, prior to his massive winning sessions (to avoid the...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 04:53 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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flight2q = Trogdor! = dragonystic = krumeluren = FellKnight
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lol, the conspiracy theories continues. Why am I not surprised?
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Call me paranoid, but I do...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 03:19 AM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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how many AP reps do you think have posted in this thread?
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= the amount of people who have posted idiotic things like, "Dude, there are holes in your evidence"...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-21-2007, 03:19 AM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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Again, the aggression factor is damning. It's not just a donk that decided, "Hey, I'm gonna try to be more aggressive and see what happens." It's a player who raises or folds EVERY...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-20-2007, 03:55 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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The point is: He is correctly raising when he has the best hand and correctly folding when he has the worst hand every time
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Thats not true and you know it. There are a...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-20-2007, 03:44 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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I've made some craptastic posts in this thread and resolved to just stay out of it since I'm just a non-balla mirco-stakes grinder, but I couldn't stay away.
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Youre...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-20-2007, 03:20 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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The win rate is the smoke, the river aggression is the fire.
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yeah, but river aggression can just be the result of an idiot donk saying to himself I will try a new...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-20-2007, 02:53 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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Enough with the earn rate stuff!
It's enough to cause some suspicion, but not relevant to the main argument, which is HOW he got there, which is where we get the 10^20 estimate.
[/...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-20-2007, 02:43 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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On heads-up NL 25/50 a 284bb/100 hand intervall is possible every 20 million hands. However to get a 481bb/100 hand intervall you have to look at approximately 2000 trillion hands.
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-20-2007, 02:33 PM
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Replies: 1,125
Views: 4,522
Re: Absolute Cheating
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If i interpret your results correctly, under the assumptions your model is correct, if you have 100.000 streaks of 100 hands each, one of those will show a win rate of...
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