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Forum: Brick and Mortar 11-29-2007, 09:45 PM
Replies: 63
Views: 1,167
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Here's a story about how a dealer actually cost me $200:

I make a flush on a board of 2d3c5d4sTd. The pot is $100 I'm OTB and shove for $200. Guy across the table thinks...
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 11-29-2007, 08:06 PM
Replies: 61
Views: 1,275
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: weird donk

It is possible that he has a monster and didn't want to knock out UTG, so I don't like raising. If it was HU the whole way I'd raise. But just call here.
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 11-29-2007, 02:37 PM
Replies: 1,073
Views: 5,315
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: You want to go pro?

[ QUOTE ]
Tarcards is your standard hyper-LAG. Free money when he runs bad, make you wan to break things when you run bad. Pretty close to unbluffable. I cant decide if he's good or not but he's...
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 11-29-2007, 02:31 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 98
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: Sample size requirement to estimate sustainable BB/100 & 80k hand

[ QUOTE ]
The size of the interval is proportional to the square root of sample size.

[/ QUOTE ]
I got this wrong. It should be proportional to the inverse of the square root of sample size. ...
Forum: Poker Theory 11-29-2007, 02:01 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 285
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: Pre-flop exploitive play question

I'm not sure I understand exactly what you're saying. So let me know if I've missed something.

If your only profit is immediate and you always want him to fold you cannot profitably re-raise. ...
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 11-29-2007, 01:37 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 98
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: Sample size requirement to estimate sustainable BB/100 & 80k hand stat

There are many threads (in other forums at least) that deal with sample size, confidence intervals, etc.

10k hands --> ~ +/- 3BB/100. The size of the interval is proportional to the square root...
Forum: Other Other Topics 11-29-2007, 01:20 AM
Replies: 80
Views: 985
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: Trip report: fight in Internet cafe

Nice TR. It would be better if you somehow included British accents or at least a British saying or two. I look forward to the audio version of this.
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 11-28-2007, 11:59 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 355
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: Stats: 34k hands ($2-$4 and $3-$6)

There's a relationship between W$SD and river AF. Your high W$SD is a result of your low river AF.
Forum: Brick and Mortar 11-28-2007, 07:51 PM
Replies: 63
Views: 1,167
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)

Here's a story about how a dealer actually cost me $200:

I make a flush on a board of 2d3c5d4sTd. The pot is $100 I'm OTB and shove for $200. Guy across the table thinks for a while and finally...
Forum: Other Other Topics 11-28-2007, 07:35 PM
Replies: 46
Views: 1,005
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: **Official NES Greatest Game of All-Time** Championship

[ QUOTE ]
Jesus... I could barely bet SMB1...

I think the electronic "koopa" randomizer was working against me.

[/ QUOTE ]
lol. Everyone knows the koopa ramdomizers aren't really random. ...
Forum: Probability 11-27-2007, 02:26 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 123
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: Is my use of binomial distribution correct?

[ QUOTE ]
So, I did everything right, both mine and the sportsbooks +EV are the same?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes. The only difference is a fraction of a cent.
Forum: Poker Theory 11-27-2007, 02:21 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 74
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: malmuth on bluffing

[ QUOTE ]
Is he not speaking in an all-knowing theory manner? Meaning when the guy who bluffs zero percent of the time bets, he is only betting when he has the best hand. And for the guy that bluffs...
Forum: Probability 11-27-2007, 04:11 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 123
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: Is my use of binomial distribution correct?

[ QUOTE ]
7-game progressive parlay

[/ QUOTE ]
I was under the impression progressive meant that it grew each week someone didn't hit it. But based on your description the payouts will be...
Forum: Poker Theory 11-27-2007, 03:08 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 74
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: malmuth on bluffing

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose there are two players, lets call them A and B. They play exactly the same, except that on the end Player A will bluff 50 percent of the time and Player B will never bluff. Who do...
Forum: Poker Theory 11-26-2007, 11:26 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 74
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: malmuth on bluffing

I'm not sure how that last part contradicts the idea of an equilibrium solution. And I tend to think he is talking about an equilibrium solution because if he was it would make perfect sense. I...
Forum: Other Other Topics 11-26-2007, 09:13 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 197
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Forum: Poker Theory 11-26-2007, 05:49 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 74
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: malmuth on bluffing

[ QUOTE ]
i've been reading a review (http://groups.google.com/group/rec.gambling.poker/browse_thread/thread/3c76c8a86bfec5c2/c0cb1c5cbcff039f) of malmuth's poker essays 3 and one point especially...
Forum: Other Other Topics 11-25-2007, 04:41 PM
Replies: 97
Views: 1,028
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: GF invites me to wake, whats my line?

Don't go. Meeting GF's family is awkward enough under normal conditions. It's inappropiate for her to ask you to meet her family at a wake, IMO. Hopefully she'll be able to see this.
Forum: Poker Theory 11-24-2007, 10:20 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 64
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: Equity question

It's more complicated than this. You have to look at how your hand will play on future streets and how your opponent will play each of his possible holdings on future streets.

For example,...
Forum: Psychology 11-24-2007, 10:07 PM
Replies: 50
Views: 585
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: fish commenting on my tight play

[ QUOTE ]
obv pull a starting hand chart out of your pocket to vindicate your strategy

[/ QUOTE ]
You should supplement this by showing your cards to your neighbor each hand. That way he'll be...
Forum: Probability 11-24-2007, 09:56 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 72
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: Staked players in a game with the staker

[ QUOTE ]
An analogy is a 3 handed game where two of the other players are on the same bankroll. Rather than colluding by forcing you out of pots, they can just "best hand" you. They have an edge on...
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 11-24-2007, 01:13 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 86
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: 55 against aggro

Good job nailing that flop. Now get some money in there. The BB will think you're FOS on this board and will often continue to bluff even after being raised on the flop. He'll also call down very...
Forum: Probability 11-23-2007, 11:33 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 72
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: Staked players in a game with the staker

It depends on how big the rake is and how good the players are. If the rake is large and the players are mediocre his EV could easily be < 0.

I'm somewhat unclear on what comparison you're...
Forum: Probability 11-23-2007, 03:19 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 72
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: Staked players in a game with the staker

(I'm assuming the staked players are all winners in the game; thus their true win rates are greater than the aveage player in the game.) If this is the case the staker has a smaller edge than he...
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 11-22-2007, 06:20 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 110
Posted By DrVanNostrin
Re: AQo hit top pair on river

[ QUOTE ]
my point is that he isn't betting 5x 66 Jx or crap on this board. in general, bad players get scared with all this stuff now that AK has a straight. it's retarded to think that he'd...
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