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Search: Posts Made By: Octopus
Forum: Full Ring 10-30-2007, 10:18 AM
Replies: 37
Views: 173
Posted By Octopus
Re: 600: Not Quite According to Plan with 2+2er

I think that you need to go ahead with your plan. The size of his raise indicates that he puts you on a pocket pair and either a)thinks you will call light with way the worse hand, or b)will lay...
Forum: Full Ring 08-25-2007, 12:37 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 102
Posted By Octopus
Re: 400: AA Considering Turn Check

[ QUOTE ]
He's half stacked, and thus a donkey.

[/ QUOTE ]
Isn't it also possible that he has lost some of his stack recently and has not reloaded? Also, there are reasons a good player...
Forum: Full Ring 08-24-2007, 01:28 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 415
Posted By Octopus
Re: 200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop

[ QUOTE ]
Player A has 9/51(18%) probability of hitting a set on the given flop as does player B.

Therefore, the probability that they both have a set is found just by multiplying the two...
Forum: Full Ring 08-24-2007, 12:39 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 415
Posted By Octopus
Re: 200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop

[ QUOTE ]
I totally understand what you are saying, but if we are going on the assumption, which we pretty much should, that we are pushing any flop here then the flop doesn't matter at all. I keep...
Forum: Full Ring 08-23-2007, 08:36 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 415
Posted By Octopus
Re: 200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop

[ QUOTE ]
The EV looks like this(I am going to keep it simple with 70 effective stacks, that guy has more and it will lower our EV but this will give the idea):

They both fold[ when they don't...
Forum: Full Ring 08-23-2007, 04:16 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 415
Posted By Octopus
Re: 200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop

[ QUOTE ]

I am pretty sure my math is close. If they both have PP's then there are 4 cards that give either one of them a set.

The chances that neither will flop a set is:
...
Forum: Full Ring 08-23-2007, 03:21 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 415
Posted By Octopus
Re: 200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Suppose they have exactly JJ-22. (Too restrictive, I know.) Then we will lose money from here if we get all-in even if they will always fold without a set.

[/ QUOTE ]
...
Forum: Full Ring 08-23-2007, 02:00 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 415
Posted By Octopus
Re: 200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop

[ QUOTE ]
I can understand your resistance to bet based on your read, but if you don't c-bet a flop like this, what do you c-bet?

Checking loses control of the hand unless you are planning to...
Forum: Full Ring 08-23-2007, 01:44 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 415
Posted By Octopus
Re: 200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tell me about these opponents. Do you have a range for them to call a big raise like that?

[/ QUOTE ]

They both were playing fairly tightly and raising pf very...
Forum: Full Ring 08-23-2007, 01:26 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 415
Posted By Octopus
Re: 200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop

Tell me about these opponents. Do you have a range for them to call a big raise like that?
Forum: Micro Stakes 08-21-2007, 01:29 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 305
Posted By Octopus
Re: PNL Study Group Day 2: Stack Sizes

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As far as bankroll management goes, if I decide to sit with a 50BB stack, would it be ok to jump up to the next highest game?

[/ QUOTE ]

For example, say you have $100....
Forum: Full Ring 08-20-2007, 05:06 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 230
Posted By Octopus
Re: 200: JJ OOP in Blind War

[ QUOTE ]
MP3 folded on the folp right?

PFR is too weak, OOP with a limper I make it at least $10. On the flop how much is in the pot? $21? Your bet is far too weak. I'm sure you're ahead,...
Forum: Full Ring 08-20-2007, 04:58 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 230
Posted By Octopus
Re: 200: JJ OOP in Blind War

[ QUOTE ]
Call
C/C
if he checks turn value bet river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does it matter to you if his turn bet is 1/2 pot sized or pot sized?
Are you calling again on the river (if he bets the...
Forum: Full Ring 08-17-2007, 12:48 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 257
Posted By Octopus
Re: 200: 88 oop

Some thoughts:

Flop) We are absolutely ready to go on the flop. We want to get all the money in there. I think his relevant range here is JJ, AQ+. (He might have other things, but we are...
Forum: Full Ring 08-05-2007, 12:00 AM
Replies: 58
Views: 234
Posted By Octopus
Re: 400nl: Looks like a cooler, smells like a cooler, but ????????????

[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove: The most misused piece of poker software on the market (except for anybody who tries to use the Ultimate Bet software to play poker with).

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. The only...
Forum: Full Ring 07-24-2007, 05:55 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 67
Posted By Octopus
Re: NL25 - how cautious can I be? AKo UI

Thanks all. I did raise and got called by UTG only. The turn was the king of flush and he checked. I checked behind. The river was a blank and he checked again. I made a smallish bet and was...
Forum: Full Ring 07-24-2007, 03:05 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 67
Posted By Octopus
NL25 - how cautious can I be? AKo UI

UTG here is 50/7/0.5 in the 1 orbit he has been here. I have seen three of his hands. A set which he pounded all the way. T6o which he limped first in on the button and then called min bets with...
Forum: Full Ring 07-20-2007, 01:00 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 208
Posted By Octopus
Re: Posting Question

[ QUOTE ]
But posting in 6-max is obviously bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to think the same thing; now I realize that this is not true. (That is, it is not obvious that it is bad. I have no idea...
Forum: Full Ring 07-19-2007, 04:19 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 208
Posted By Octopus
Re: Posting Question

[ QUOTE ]
I can show you in an 8 handed game why it it improper to post from the CO.

In an 8 handed game, if you post from the CO, you are paying 1bb for your first 5 hands or .2bb/hand. If you...
Forum: Full Ring 05-30-2007, 02:55 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 85
Posted By Octopus
NL25; facing turn check/min-raise

I know the answer: it depends on your opponent. Never-the-less:

I open for $1 in middle position with AA. There is a late position poster in the hand. He and everyone else folds to the BB who...
Forum: Full Ring 05-29-2007, 07:14 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 117
Posted By Octopus
Re: standard stats for a nit / TAG player ?

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I started playing semiseriously NL25 10 days ago, and my stats after 9k hands are 10'72/5'64/2'82

I'm trying to up the pfr but I don't know if it's worth it at this level, because...
Forum: Small Stakes Limit 05-28-2007, 12:27 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 101
Posted By Octopus
Re: can I make money playing supertight?

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have much experience playing limit poker online (have played a little more live) but I figured that there would be more bad players online since anyone can sign up and play.

[/...
Forum: Small Stakes Limit 05-26-2007, 10:32 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 86
Posted By Octopus
Re: Flop the nuts, should I slow-play?

This is a horrible place to slow play.

To slow play you need:
1. The best hand. OK, you've got that.
2. A high probability of everyone to fold to a bet. Well, maybe and maybe not.
3. For...
Forum: Small Stakes Limit 05-25-2007, 11:54 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 58
Posted By Octopus
Re: Include bad beat winnings in win rate calculation?

[ QUOTE ]
I couldn't convince my accountant in a way the IRS would believe that I should be able to offset the dollar drop in hands I played.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your accountant is right. The dollar...
Forum: Small Stakes Limit 05-25-2007, 11:31 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 101
Posted By Octopus
Re: can I make money playing supertight?

[ QUOTE ]
Can I make money playing 2/4 to 5/10 Limit online at full tables only playing the top 5% of hands dealt such as AA,KK,QQ, JJ, AK suited and offsuit and A,Q suited? If I only played these...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 189

 
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