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Search: Posts Made By: twistedbeats
Forum: Sports Betting 12-01-2007, 11:18 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 639
Posted By twistedbeats
Re: how much is homefield advantage worth in the NHL?

to henry17, who asked where i got the .31, it came from wikipedia-ing "home field advantage in hockey." to quote:
The following are recent statistical calculations of the home field advantage:
...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-30-2007, 12:57 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 639
Posted By twistedbeats
how much is homefield advantage worth in the NHL?

the only number i was able to find was .31. unfortunatly, i don't know if that means .31 goals or what. any help is appreciated.
Forum: Small Stakes Limit 11-28-2007, 11:42 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 562
Posted By twistedbeats
Re: Big draw on the turn in big pot

how does knocking other players out help you win? i guess there's an outside possibility you're buying an ace out, but i'm pretty convinced you're gonna have to crying call if an ace comes.
Forum: Small Stakes Limit 11-28-2007, 11:18 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 562
Posted By twistedbeats
Re: Big draw on the turn in big pot

the question is betwen check raising and check calling, right? i'm voting for check raise if it's multi way, especially if you don't think button will 3 bet. and calling heads up.
Forum: Small Stakes Limit 11-27-2007, 09:38 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 178
Posted By twistedbeats
a9o on the bb in 2/4 six max

should this be in the short handed forum?

anyway, all 4 other players are very loose, and at most only slightly aggressive. they're all seeing at least 50% of flops, nobody having an AF of over 1....
Forum: Sports Betting 11-01-2007, 12:35 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 57
Posted By twistedbeats
Build my pub parlay, week 2

i was actually really surprised at how many responses my post last week got, so i'll list out all the games out of the 47 listed that are off by more than half a point based on what wsex has the...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-26-2007, 05:11 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 560
Posted By twistedbeats
Re: local pub parlay cards

so my next question is how much is the line being off worth? for instance, assuming that the line on the pats redskin game is correct at skins +16, how much is being able to bet them at +20 worth in...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-26-2007, 01:10 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 560
Posted By twistedbeats
Re: local pub parlay cards

you're very correct, sir. the rounding seems to be at random, too. anyway, the lines are:

4 teams 10-1
5 teams 15-1
6 teams 25-1
7 teams 50-1
8 teams 100-1
9 teams 200-1
10 teams 300-1
9...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-26-2007, 11:30 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 560
Posted By twistedbeats
Re: local pub parlay cards

for what it's worth, my pick this week was
wisconson -7 v indiana
pittsburg -13 v louisville
auburn -17 v mississippi
tampa ba +3 v jacksonville
washington +20 v new england
Forum: Sports Betting 10-26-2007, 11:27 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 560
Posted By twistedbeats
local pub parlay cards

like most pubs, my local offers weekly parlay cards. the thing is, some of the lines are so far off, i feel like i'm being offered a teaser at parlay prices. for instance, this week, pats are -20 vs...
Forum: Small Stakes Limit 10-23-2007, 06:12 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 47
Posted By twistedbeats
3/6 qq in the small blind. bet river?

ub 3/6, six handed.

button and big blind are way loose passive. utg+1 is fairly laggy.

utg folds, utg+1 calls, CO folds, button raises, Hero reraises. big blind calls, utg+1 calls 2. button...
Forum: Internet Gambling 10-18-2007, 10:21 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 170
Posted By twistedbeats
Re: Ultimate Bet Cashout

i cash out by check every other week (if i'm lucky). invariably, ub takes 2 days to process and 4 (business) days to mail it. and then bank of america takes 10 days to clear the funds.
Forum: Internet Gambling 10-10-2007, 10:36 AM
Replies: 1
Views: 48
Posted By twistedbeats
How high does a BBJP have to be to be +EV? (math nerds help!)

if 70% is distributed (a la party) is hit?
if 65% is distributed (a la ub)

how much does the fact that ub pays that remaining 25% to every table of same limit and gametype affect this?

i seem...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 09-07-2007, 11:21 AM
Replies: 28
Views: 91
Posted By twistedbeats
Re: what are the odds of hitting an inside straight draw with one to c

i [censored] knew it. now, what are the odds of mid pair improving with one card to come?
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 09-07-2007, 11:16 AM
Replies: 28
Views: 91
Posted By twistedbeats
Forum: News, Views, and Gossip 08-30-2007, 01:54 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 146
Posted By twistedbeats
Great Foxwoods ad seen during sox/yanks game

this guy's playing internet poker in his basement. his hole cards are jack five offsuit. the board's J8735. he wins, and the screen flashes "WINNER!" so he stands up and starts shouting "YEAH! I WIN!...
Forum: Sports Betting 03-26-2007, 09:38 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 50
Posted By twistedbeats
Re: incorrect baseball lines

all the sports books i use always have run lines, but if that's not the norm, sure, let's rephrase the question.

if team is listed as -135, and team b is listed as +125, how do we translate those...
Forum: Sports Betting 03-26-2007, 08:45 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 50
Posted By twistedbeats
incorrect baseball lines

let us say that there is a betting line team a -1.5 points vs team b. and we know that team b should be at -3.5 points. what percent advantage does that translate to?
Forum: MTT Strategy 01-12-2007, 11:54 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 63
Posted By twistedbeats
Re: AJo vs small stack with 13 left

i knew he was trying to slide into tenth. so i figured ak at worst.
Forum: MTT Strategy 01-12-2007, 11:20 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 63
Posted By twistedbeats
AJo vs small stack with 13 left

13 left in a 100$ tourney. first pays 3500, 10th-20th pay 126. i'm the chip leader at my table with 23000, but 5th overall. i haven't really been bullying the table because i haven't had the chance....
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