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Search: Posts Made By: ellington1641
Forum: Small Stakes 11-29-2007, 06:50 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 488
Posted By ellington1641
Re: donkbet why?

I'd definitely c-r...worst case is you have 6 outs, you get a lot of folds, if he checks behind it's not terrible, and you might get called by a worse hand like 99 or maybe even 55, depending on how...
Forum: Small Stakes 11-20-2007, 07:55 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 200
Posted By ellington1641
Re: abusing bad TAG players preflop [theory]

True for some, but not for all. I do usually try and get a little bit of a read on a player before I three-bet him light. And I should note too, that by light I usually mean at least a suited...
Forum: Small Stakes 11-20-2007, 05:09 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 200
Posted By ellington1641
Re: abusing bad TAG players preflop [theory]

IF you are called, you'll risk the 30 to win 12. Think about it this way:
EV[3-betting]=Probability of a fold pre-flop*Original Raise + Probability of a call pre-flop*EV[3-betting|villain calls]....
Forum: Small Stakes 11-20-2007, 04:55 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 200
Posted By ellington1641
Re: abusing bad TAG players preflop [theory]

I think it really depends on the game and the villains. I usually don't get called 60% of the time. I'd say I probably get called 40% of the time. But remember that some of those times I have AA and...
Forum: Small Stakes 11-20-2007, 04:51 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 200
Posted By ellington1641
Re: abusing bad TAG players preflop [theory]

This is an example of the "sunk cost fallacy". It doesn't matter who put that money in. You want to take the optimal action given your situation. And if you check down and lose a showdown, or fold to...
Forum: Small Stakes 11-20-2007, 04:22 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 200
Posted By ellington1641
Re: abusing bad TAG players preflop [theory]

If I understand this correctly, you're not making the right comparison. You want to know if a c-bet is profitable GIVEN that your 3-bet has been called. In this case, you risk 18-20 bb to win the 25...
Forum: Small Stakes 09-18-2007, 07:50 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 47
Posted By ellington1641
Re: JJ - Q-high flop vs an Aggro Donk

[ QUOTE ]
If I think I have a good enough read to call the turn raise, I'm calling this river every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. If he's going to play that wild and crazy, in order to play...
Forum: Small Stakes 09-17-2007, 07:17 PM
Replies: 46
Views: 134
Posted By ellington1641
Re: FT200 Kinda weird riverspot

I'd c/c...I guess it does suck, but if you bet $10 or however much you want to try and block with and you're raised you probably have to fold, and you're still probably getting bluffed some of the...
Forum: Small Stakes 09-13-2007, 08:10 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 46
Posted By ellington1641
Re: nl100 - overpair vs BB, board pairs on turn

I think you have to add A6 and A5 of spades to the villain's range. And A4 of spades, which you're now trailing.
Forum: Small Stakes 09-13-2007, 08:01 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 27
Posted By ellington1641
Re: Pair and draw $1/2

I also agree that you just call the flop. What do you do on the turn if the deuce of clubs comes? I think I'd check-raise all-in, but it's hard to say without better knowledge of the villain. Would...
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