Forum: Poker Theory
11-28-2007, 04:37 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 82
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Forum: Probability
11-17-2007, 06:30 AM
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Replies: 15
Views: 117
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Forum: Probability
11-10-2007, 11:18 AM
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Replies: 9
Views: 107
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Forum: Probability
11-10-2007, 09:47 AM
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Replies: 9
Views: 107
Re: Infinite bankroll paradox
Your conclusion that the EV is -100% is not right. What you did was separate out the calc of the frequency with which you are a winner, which is 0% and concluded that the EV was -100%. With more...
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Forum: Probability
11-08-2007, 02:26 PM
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Replies: 45
Views: 340
Re: is the EV for this game really infinity?
There are games in game theory where how many times they are played makes a difference, but this is due to the exercise of memory by one or both participants. Past decisions have an impact on future...
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Forum: Probability
11-08-2007, 10:04 AM
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Replies: 45
Views: 340
Re: is the EV for this game really infinity?
Your solution does not incorporate any information concerning what the payoff is when the game lasts 1 flip or if the game lasts 3 or more flips as if this had no impact.
You can't just separate...
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Forum: Poker Theory
11-06-2007, 11:45 AM
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Replies: 9
Views: 86
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Forum: Probability
10-18-2007, 10:00 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 75
Re: Prob of not drawing card in x trials...help
46.311% confirms your other calc with the following more general program:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
from random import *
n = 100000
t = 90
k = 52
c = 0
deck = range(52)...
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Forum: Probability
10-18-2007, 09:16 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 75
Re: Prob of not drawing card in x trials...help
Okay, I did goof. I misinterpreted the problem.
The good news is that your calc appears correct. Here is my amended program:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
from random import *
n...
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Forum: Probability
10-18-2007, 07:28 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 75
Re: Prob of not drawing card in x trials...help
In my Monte Carlo program P(at least 1 not drawn) is 100% for 90 shift/trials. If I increase the number of shift/trials to 120, I get 99.789%. With 180 shift/trials, I get 81.699%. Here is my Python...
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Forum: Probability
10-16-2007, 07:57 PM
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Replies: 12
Views: 90
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Forum: Probability
10-16-2007, 02:35 PM
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Replies: 12
Views: 90
Re: basic probability question counter intuitive?
See
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...D=#Post12527998 (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=12527998&page=0&vc=&PHPSESSID=#Post12527998)
It seems we are...
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Forum: Probability
10-16-2007, 02:31 PM
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Replies: 12
Views: 90
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Forum: Probability
10-16-2007, 12:50 PM
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Replies: 12
Views: 90
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Forum: Probability
10-16-2007, 12:21 PM
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Replies: 12
Views: 90
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Forum: Probability
10-16-2007, 12:08 PM
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Replies: 12
Views: 90
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Forum: Probability
10-16-2007, 11:55 AM
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Replies: 12
Views: 90
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Forum: MTT Strategy
10-15-2007, 02:07 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 153
Hachem Bluff
In Sunday's LA Times, Rosenbloom gives the following hand played between Joe Hachem (=JH) and Keith Lehr (=KL) at the $15,000 buyin Doyle Brunson North American Poker Classic at the Bellagio in 2006....
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Forum: STT Strategy
10-12-2007, 07:15 PM
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Replies: 8
Views: 50
Re: $11 KQ play
I'm having a lot of trouble putting him on a hand that could sensibly play this way and that you are ahead of.
What is worse, despite the inviting pot odds, the hands that I do put him on preclude...
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Forum: Probability
10-10-2007, 12:56 PM
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Replies: 4
Views: 53
Re: Solving problems in Reverse
The answer depends on whether you would accept an approximation and how accurate you want the approximation to be e.g. my answer to all problems is 1 /images/graemlins/wink.gif
The most obvious...
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Forum: Probability
10-08-2007, 04:21 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 77
Re: coin flip probability problem
For 10 heads occurring at least once in 100 tosses:
The probability is exactly: 6993823047305143749226306585/158456325028528675187087900672
The odds are exactly:
151462501981223531437861594087...
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Forum: Probability
10-07-2007, 01:30 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 94
Re: formula 2 calculate EV?
[ QUOTE ]
<font color="#FF4444"> </font> You don't include the amount you have to call because that's no money you can win. It's the money you pay for the chance to win. So the 2nd formula is...
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Forum: STT Strategy
09-19-2007, 09:15 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 20
ICM algorithm
I got this from the FAQ concerning the ICM algorithm:
[ QUOTE ]
P^m_i = prob. of mth place for ith player
P^m_i = sum_{k!=i} P^1_k*P^m-1_i(S_~k)
where S_~k is the stacks after removing the k'th...
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Forum: Poker Theory
09-15-2007, 07:57 AM
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Replies: 2
Views: 339
What are the most demanding starting hands?
What are the types of starting hands that are the most demanding skill-wise to play? From late position? From early position? With a deep stack of over 100 BB? With a stack of about 30 BB? Please...
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Forum: Poker Theory
09-10-2007, 10:37 AM
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Replies: 17
Views: 82
Re: How is this calculated?
There are 820 possible turn+river deals excluding order:
The AhQh win with a flush on 136 of these.
The 8s8c win with quads/fullhouse on 237 of these.
In other words, the 8s8c win about 10.4%...
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