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Forum: Sports Betting 12-02-2007, 12:38 AM
Replies: 105
Views: 698
Posted By crockpot
Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title

i doubt he'll have a problem, since no one but tradesports is going to have a line up until the poll comes out
Forum: Sports Betting 12-02-2007, 12:00 AM
Replies: 105
Views: 698
Posted By crockpot
Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title

sooooo wtf happens now
Forum: Sporting Events 11-30-2007, 07:55 PM
Replies: 371
Views: 4,571
Posted By crockpot
Re: *** Official NY Mets Our OFFSEASON Has Come Thread ***

[ QUOTE ]
Which is why I qualified it by noting that the defensive credit BP gives Church is considered accurate, hence it's not far off. I bet a .280 OF with very good D = 7 wins.

[/ QUOTE ]
...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-30-2007, 07:02 PM
Replies: 371
Views: 4,571
Posted By crockpot
Re: *** Official NY Mets Our OFFSEASON Has Come Thread ***

[ QUOTE ]
Church was worth more than 7 wins last year.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not picking on you, but i want to get this out there:

WARP3 sucks. it bites the big one. if you gave everyone credit...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 04:35 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 3,652
Posted By crockpot
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

[ QUOTE ]
The Rays just pulled themselves within 20 games of a playoff spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

if i wasn't so sure vegas would open the tampa o/u at 68 wins next year, i'd put about half my bankroll...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 01:11 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 3,652
Posted By crockpot
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

[ QUOTE ]
What if Garza is the next Brazelton or Hamilton?

[/ QUOTE ]

what's with the hamilton comparison? garza doesn't have a drug problem, but given hamilton's studly MLB debut, maybe...
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 01:06 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 3,652
Posted By crockpot
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

[ QUOTE ]
Then anyone would have the ceiling of the best player at their position.

[/ QUOTE ]

not samardzija
Forum: Sporting Events 11-29-2007, 01:05 AM
Replies: 322
Views: 3,652
Posted By crockpot
Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

[ QUOTE ]
Don't trade a guy coming off of a bad year or for a guy coming off of a good year. The Rays are guilty of both to some degree here.

[/ QUOTE ]

sometimes i think i'm the only one who...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-25-2007, 10:21 AM
Replies: 105
Views: 698
Posted By crockpot
Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title

i believe your numbers indicate oklahoma should be much better than +7000:

.58 * (1-.95) * .67 = 1.9%

small potatoes, but if you see oklahoma at 70-1...

of course, you can't be sure they'll...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-23-2007, 04:24 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 160
Posted By crockpot
Re: Interesting Super Bowl bet?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're looking at something similar but it isn't really the same idea. You need to weight a NE SB chance with the line you'll expect to see along with...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-15-2007, 09:54 PM
Replies: 263
Views: 1,114
Posted By crockpot
Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hey Crock,

Thanks for the credit on the prop finds. I've got one more that could be of value.

I like Bob Melvin for NL manager of the year at 15-1. If the Dbacks show...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-14-2007, 05:54 AM
Replies: 105
Views: 698
Posted By crockpot
Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title

i don't know much about college football, but i don't think it's correct to call kansas a powerhouse. other than that, good analysis.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-14-2007, 05:00 AM
Replies: 33
Views: 210
Posted By crockpot
Re: Anyone want to re-open The Well?

oh, and i'll go in the well if someone can provide me with a satisfactory explanation why the URL http://matchbook.com loads more reliably than http://www.matchbook.com .
Forum: Sports Betting 11-14-2007, 04:54 AM
Replies: 33
Views: 210
Posted By crockpot
Re: Anyone want to re-open The Well?

[ QUOTE ]
I just assume he wouldn't answer any of the good stuff, and I cannot blame him for that

[/ QUOTE ]

i honestly think i could send each of you guys my spreadsheets and you wouldn't...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-12-2007, 03:18 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 224
Posted By crockpot
Re: Kelly Betting: Spread vs. Moneyline

if you're willing to go to the trouble, you could make a spreadsheet outlining the three possibilities (win outright, cover but lose, fail to cover), with the respective probabilities and odds for...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-08-2007, 04:41 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 347
Posted By crockpot
Re: Adrian Peterson Bodog props

does anyone have confirmation from bodog that a tie for the record is a win and not a push?
Forum: Sports Betting 11-08-2007, 04:35 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 347
Posted By crockpot
Re: Adrian Peterson Bodog props

[ QUOTE ]
Not really because you're clearly not maximizing your +EV by starting tomlinson

[/ QUOTE ]
Forum: Sports Betting 11-08-2007, 03:11 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 347
Posted By crockpot
Re: Adrian Peterson Bodog props

i maxed the no on 1808 at +190 on sportsbook.
Forum: Sports Betting 11-08-2007, 03:05 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 347
Posted By crockpot
Re: Adrian Peterson Bodog props

[ QUOTE ]
I currently have LT sitting on my fantasy bench because i have Addai and AP starting, jealous much?!

[/ QUOTE ]

are you sure your goal is to find +EV sports bets?
Forum: Sports Betting 11-04-2007, 01:45 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 158
Posted By crockpot
Re: Some Pats/Colts props I like

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think of Manning to throw first TD pass +150? Seems like a small edge there without looking at it in too much detail.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd rather bet the Manning +0.5 prop,...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-04-2007, 02:53 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 158
Posted By crockpot
Some Pats/Colts props I like

Moss under 1.5 TD -125 (VIP) - Really? Half a season goes by, and suddenly this guy is the best WR in NFL history? Moss needs to project at 1.5 scores this week for -125 to break even, and I think...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-31-2007, 09:03 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 123
Posted By crockpot
Re: Note for those who use Bet Jamaica

i got mine via email.

OP, i owe you a drink.
Forum: Sports Betting 10-31-2007, 08:14 PM
Replies: 83
Views: 951
Posted By crockpot
Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread

brag: deposited 60k in winnings from cashing tickets today

beat: completely upstaged by wanderlei silva walking into the bank right after me

variance: some very interesting futures lines for...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-31-2007, 04:11 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 91
Posted By crockpot
Re: A-Rod and 2008

[ QUOTE ]
Does the LAD organization really like Andy LaRoche that much?

[/ QUOTE ]

do they? no.

should they? yes. it's pointless to spend $160 million for a-rod the next six seasons...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-31-2007, 12:56 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 91
Posted By crockpot
Re: A-Rod and 2008

[ QUOTE ]
- LAD is also a possibility - another big market team with a need for a 3B and Torre as the likely manager. 22% chance is too high.

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't realize this was your 2+2...
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