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Forum: Books and Publications 11-11-2007, 10:14 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 235
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: The Mathematics of poker by Bill Chen & some dude...

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Traditional risk of ruin says, for a 300 bet bankroll:

ror = exp(-2*w*b/s^2) = exp(-2*1.5*300/289) = 4.44%

This is the risk of ruin if your TRUE win rate is 1.5 bb/100 and...
Forum: Books and Publications 11-06-2007, 10:14 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 235
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: The Mathematics of poker by Bill Chen & some dude...

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Example:
Suppose you have played 22,500 hands of 9-handed limit holdem, and you've won 337.5 bets, with a std deviation of
17 bets/100. So your win rate w is 1.5 bb/100,...
Forum: Books and Publications 11-06-2007, 12:27 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 235
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: The Mathematics of poker by Bill Chen & some dude...

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From what I have seen of if so far it is defintely a book that is very daunting for the non mathematically minded. I have a mathematics and statistics degree - from a long time ago now and...
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 08-31-2007, 01:10 AM
Replies: 72
Views: 318
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: I thought this was supposed to be a good flop...

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a little fact from game theory - in multi street two-person games with multiple raises possible the value of position is negligible. not that it's relevant to the current...
Forum: Poker Theory 08-16-2007, 03:30 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 106
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: explain to me the mathematics of a blocking bet

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As is often the case, The Mathematics of Poker explains the concept far better than I could. Blocking bets are a powerful and IMO underappreciated...
Forum: Poker Theory 08-15-2007, 11:35 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 106
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: explain to me the mathematics of a blocking bet

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As is often the case, The Mathematics of Poker explains the concept far better than I could. Blocking bets are a powerful and IMO underappreciated tactic, especially on the...
Forum: Poker Theory 07-11-2007, 08:15 AM
Replies: 21
Views: 128
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Sklansky-Chubukov numbers attacked

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Btw, Chen/Ankenman mention A5s in their on Jam/Fold also, so it seems that these hands do indeed rank very high.

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I have read and re-read...
Forum: Poker Theory 06-30-2007, 01:07 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 128
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Sklansky-Chubukov numbers attacked

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Btw, Chen/Ankenman mention A5s in their on Jam/Fold also, so it seems that these hands do indeed rank very high.

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I have read and re-read that section dozens of...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-30-2007, 07:23 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 61
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Adapting the Kelly Criterion to cash NLHE

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du ~ w^2/B - (w^2+s^2)/2B^2

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As someone pointed out to me privately, this should be:

du ~ w/B - (w^2+s^2)/2B^2

instead. Later equations are all right, i just...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-24-2007, 04:59 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 98
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Which poker variation is most exploitable by pure math strategy?

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No, this is wrong. Headsup Chinese could (I guess) be solved for an equilibrium strategy, but without some mixed strategies your nemesis EV will be higher than it would be if...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-23-2007, 08:04 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 98
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Which poker variation is most exploitable by pure math strategy?

It seems one of the points you were trying to make, which is a good one, was that in regular poker you can make more money by playing in a way that is really bad if they know what you're doing. But...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-23-2007, 07:54 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 61
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Adapting the Kelly Criterion to cash NLHE

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The main two mathematical problems I see with this adaptation are:

1) If you want to play deep stacked (or any fixed stack-to blinds relation for that matter), you have only a few...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-23-2007, 03:55 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 98
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Which poker variation is most exploitable by pure math strategy?

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I want to add something to my statement above (and I am no longer free to edit my post apparently).

With regards to Chinese Poker, it is explotiable in the sense I can develop a...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-17-2007, 11:02 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 62
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Jam-or-fold: (near)optimal for stacks up to 10 or 11BB?

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Thanks Jerrod, you're right. In the above description I erroneously extended the functional expression for the EV in the jam-or-fold game to the full game.

However, when limited to...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-10-2007, 11:31 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 55
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Theoretical Heads Up Limit Holdem Questiom

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The real question is - how do we calculate this without empirical results?

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Easy, take the optimal strategies for both sides for games for all blind levels from like 0 to...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-09-2007, 04:32 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 55
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Theoretical Heads Up Limit Holdem Questiom

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The game is 100-200 with the live big blind on the button. Opposite from normal. If the small blind completes to 100 instead of folding or raisng, the button can make it 200. No limit on...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-09-2007, 09:51 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 85
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Mathematics of Poker-Balancing

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In the mathematics of poker there is quite a bit of discussion about balancing your play; in the toy games it is shown numerous times that you need to have semibluffs included in your...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-08-2007, 08:44 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 62
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Jam-or-fold: (near)optimal for stacks up to 10 or 11BB?

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OK, I think I have to refine my argument.

(Yes, stubborn enough to continue to be pretty much convinced that being on the button heads-up constitutes an advantage for any stack size......
Forum: Poker Theory 05-06-2007, 07:27 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 62
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Jam-or-fold: (near)optimal for stacks up to 10 or 11BB?

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My intuition must be failing me. I find it difficult to believe that for the full game the equity of the SB on the button can drop to negative values. A hand-waving argument for this is...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-05-2007, 02:10 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 62
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Jam-or-fold: (near)optimal for stacks up to 10 or 11BB?

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In "The mathematics of Poker" Chen and Ankenman state:"

"Jam-or-fold is at least near-optimal for stack sizes up to about 10 or 11 blinds"

However, based on some calculculations...
Forum: Poker Theory 04-17-2007, 07:21 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 58
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Quote a Poker authority...

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In Poker Essays 3 Mason explains how higher limit 7 card stud has the proper balance of luck and skill.

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Does he really say "proper"? I mean, I can see arguing that a game...
Forum: Special Sklansky Forum 04-16-2007, 11:32 AM
Replies: 76
Views: 863
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Special Thread For Chen-Ankenman Mathematics of Poker

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jerrod,

Are we assuming Y knows X's calling frequency and X knows
Y's bluffing frequency on every street? They just don't
know what the other is doing on this hand.
Under those...
Forum: Special Sklansky Forum 04-16-2007, 11:28 AM
Replies: 76
Views: 863
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Special Thread For Chen-Ankenman Mathematics of Poker

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Jerrod, do you and Bill actually play (or aim to play) unexploitably? I mean is it a doctrine as well as a thesis?

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Pretty much. When I'm against really weak players or...
Forum: Poker Theory 04-15-2007, 11:31 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 72
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Real interesting question

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Howard Lederer wrote an article on the Full Tilt website about specialization. He said not to stick to one game- he said to play alot of games because you might find the one your best at...
Forum: Special Sklansky Forum 04-15-2007, 11:20 PM
Replies: 76
Views: 863
Posted By Jerrod Ankenman
Re: Special Thread For Chen-Ankenman Mathematics of Poker

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Not satisfied with my solutions. Solved three one street
games. Then linked the solutions into a series. This is
one game with three streets, not three independent one
street games. ...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 107
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