Forum: News, Views, and Gossip
11-20-2007, 10:15 AM
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Replies: 157
Views: 2,324
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Forum: Probability
10-28-2007, 09:32 PM
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Replies: 16
Views: 89
Re: Variance question
Under a Normal distribution, you will be more than 10 standard deviations from the mean with probability 1.5 x 10^-23. Since this isn't going to happen, if you think it did, either (a) it isn't a...
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Forum: Probability
10-28-2007, 09:20 PM
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Replies: 27
Views: 167
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Forum: Poker Theory
10-28-2007, 09:03 PM
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Replies: 8
Views: 57
Re: Did I play this hand Badly? You Decide
I'm not sure why you played it the way you did. Preflop is pretty straightforward, then you chose to slowplay on the flop. That makes sense, but then why switch on the turn? Why not let JT or KJ draw...
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Forum: Probability
10-28-2007, 01:42 PM
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Replies: 5
Views: 57
Re: Suited connector odds
In this case it makes some sense to double count the flops that give you both straight and flush draws, because you benefit from both draws. But you're correct that you should figure those separately.
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Forum: Poker Theory
10-27-2007, 06:48 PM
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Replies: 4
Views: 188
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Forum: Poker Theory
10-27-2007, 08:19 AM
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Replies: 9
Views: 94
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Forum: Probability
10-21-2007, 05:12 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 87
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Forum: Poker Theory
10-21-2007, 05:07 PM
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Replies: 18
Views: 140
Re: Visible Aces vs. any two cards
[ QUOTE ]
yeah, but couldn't the player w/AA negate this by always pushing pf? (in a nl game)
[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, I said that at the start. In no-limit, AA wins. In standard limit, AA wins. Only in...
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Forum: Probability
10-21-2007, 12:09 PM
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Replies: 3
Views: 113
Re: Basic Prob Question - Flush Draw
You are dealt suited cards 12 times in 51 (your first card can be anything, there are 12 out of the remaining 51 that match). That's 4/17 or 1/4.25.
Once you have two cards of a suit in your hand,...
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Forum: Poker Theory
10-21-2007, 11:56 AM
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Replies: 45
Views: 422
Re: Variance is Fractal
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You cant get a truthful picture of the "variance" of a thing unless you have the mean to that thing.
[/ QUOTE ]
That depends entirely on the relative size of the mean and standard...
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Forum: Poker Theory
10-21-2007, 11:26 AM
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Replies: 18
Views: 140
Re: Visible Aces vs. any two cards
It depends crucially on the blind/limit structure. In no-limit, AA always goes all-in preflop, and wins on average.
You never have much more than a 20% chance against AA. Say the other player...
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Forum: Poker Theory
10-21-2007, 11:14 AM
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Replies: 17
Views: 96
Re: How strong do you play Ace Rag?
You are correct about the dangers of A-small, but it has two big advantages as well. First, it's a stronger than average hand. It will often win if the hand is played to showdown, and it wins very...
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Forum: Poker Theory
10-21-2007, 11:06 AM
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Replies: 28
Views: 185
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Forum: Probability
10-13-2007, 03:08 PM
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Replies: 13
Views: 92
Re: Probability of 2 PP\'s at 9 handed table?
You're thinking is right on both counts. You were afraid of one AA, not two. My criticism of the decision is AA is so unlikely that when you suspect it, you're probably wrong.
You're also correct...
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Forum: Poker Theory
10-13-2007, 03:02 PM
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Replies: 39
Views: 159
Re: Equity and value betting
Pot equity is not the main point. As PhlegmWad said, you have to think about the chance of being called by a hand that you can beat. You also have to know what you will do to an all-in reraise.
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Forum: Poker Theory
10-13-2007, 02:45 PM
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Replies: 24
Views: 157
Re: How good can a bad player ever be?
Zero to profitable grinder in six months is certainly doable. With a good coach and pupil it would take less time. And starting from zero is probably easier than getting an everyday poker player to...
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Forum: Probability
10-13-2007, 11:03 AM
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Replies: 5
Views: 65
Re: Is this a Probabilities Question?
Yes, keeping points proportional to number of players and using Fibonacci shares makes sense.
To award more places (and I agree with you that's a good idea) start your series smaller. Say you want...
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Forum: Probability
10-13-2007, 10:42 AM
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Replies: 13
Views: 83
Re: LLN Question (FGators Question)
I'm not sure if everything has been resolved or not.
The long run average winning percentage converges to the expected win rate.
The long run number of wins "diverges" in the sense that the...
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Forum: Probability
10-13-2007, 10:35 AM
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Replies: 13
Views: 92
Re: Probability of 2 PP\'s at 9 handed table?
You have to do this in steps. First consider only three players. If you deal six cards at random, there are C(52,6) = 20,358,520 possible hands, only six of which are AAAAKK (there's only one way to...
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Forum: Probability
10-13-2007, 10:17 AM
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Replies: 7
Views: 54
Re: would you do business here?
It's hard for me to answer, because I don't understand why you did a lot of things to get you to the situation, so obviously I don't know what you want.
In general, I do not agree to run it twice....
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Forum: Poker Theory
10-13-2007, 10:11 AM
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Replies: 24
Views: 157
Re: How good can a bad player ever be?
No, I don't think your friend could do it. Not because being a low-level poker pro requires exceptional talent, like being an NBA star, or years of intense dedication, like being a scientist; but...
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Forum: Poker Theory
10-12-2007, 07:34 PM
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Replies: 21
Views: 114
Re: On being a \"poker snob\"
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It sickens me to even think that might occur. Don't ask me why, it's like a switch I can't turn off.
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[ QUOTE ]
Can't play poker with this attitude. You will lose...
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Forum: Poker Theory
10-12-2007, 07:26 PM
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Replies: 24
Views: 157
Re: How good can a bad player ever be?
Poker is a very simple card game, so almost anyone can master the cardplay pretty easily. Most players don't, but that's not what you're asking about.
Another essential skill, but reasonably easy...
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Forum: Probability
10-11-2007, 08:32 PM
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Replies: 5
Views: 65
Re: Is this a Probabilities Question?
It's twice as hard to win a 20 player tournament as a 10 player tournament, all other things being equal. Therefore, it should get twice as many points.
My guess is the formula you have also gives...
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